2009 – Page 36 – Shall Not Be Questioned

NRA Reaction to Election 2009

Landslide. For the record, I probably went a little easy on the Bradys in agreement that the election wasn’t about guns. That’s not entirely true. A reader pointed out that guns were most definitely an issue in the Virginia Attorney General’s race, with Democrats running ads like this against Ken Cuccinelli, in addition to a TV spot showing here:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ7_s06LKJk[/youtube]

If this race wasn’t about guns, it wasn’t for the Democrat’s lack of trying. Ken Cuccinelli won the Attorney General race by a 15 point margin over Democrat Steve Shannon. While we can’t take credit for all that margin, we are no doubt a nice chunk of it. This shows that Democrats can’t make a winning issue out of guns. Corzine also beat on the gun control drum, and it didn’t save him either. Â If that’s the case, why do they bother? Increasingly they don’t, and that has to scare the Brady folks, no matter what their public rhetoric says.

How the GOP Fared in the Collar Counties

John Micek covers the results of the elections in Pennsylvania last night:

We sat down and took a look at the electoral map this morning, and there’s some portents in there that should make Democrats very nervous indeed.

Despite a massive statewide voter registration edge, Republicans ultimately proved more motivated than Democrats last night. GOP voters turned out in droves in the allegedly blue Philadelphia suburbs.

Orie Melvin carried three of the four collar counties, picking up monster wins in Delaware County (56 percent) and Chester County (60 percent) and a clear majority in Bucks County (55 percent), unofficial tallies showed.

Panella eked out a win in Montgomery County, taking 50 percent of the vote. As you might expect, he cleaned up in Philadelphia, taking just about 79 percent of the vote. He also carried Allegheny County, Orie Melvin’s wheelhouse, with a shade over 51 percent.

So much the same as we saw in New Jersey. Low Democratic turnout lead to the GOP winning most of the collar counties around Philadelphia. The huge margin in Chester County is no surprise, since it’s still generally considered a Republican County, but Chesco went for Obama in 2008, along with all the other ring counties. Montgomery County is still the weakest for the GOP, but the strong GOP showing of Bucks and Delaware County should be encouraging for Republicans.

What Chris Christie’s Victory Could Mean

Looking at the tallies over in New Jersey, it’s pretty amazing, and should give the Democratic Party some pause. Democrats have been very successful at making gains among middle class suburbanites, and among the very wealthy, especially in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the West Coast. Most of this was because Bill Clinton captured a lot of the issues those voters cared about from the Republican Party, such as balanced budgets, free trade, and welfare reform. Following up with George W. Bush, who was very successful at continuing to drive suburban Republicans and Independents more into the Democratic camp, made the situation even worse. That might be changing based on the numbers I’ve seen. Let’s look at some of the counties in New Jersey:

Bergen County: Borders New York City. Ought to be a blowout for Corzine. Corzine wins, but only by 2.2% points. Obama took this county by 9 points in 2008.
Middlesex County: Located in Northeast New Jersey. Christie took this county by 3.7% points. In 2008, Obama took this county by 21 percentage points.
Somerset County: Located just west of Middlesex Co. Christie won by 22 percentage points. Obama took this county in 2009 by 7 points.
Mercer County: Richest county in the state, located adjacent to Bucks County, PA in central New Jersey. Contains Trenton and Princeton. Corzine still won, but only by 16%. Obama took Mercer County by an amazing 37 points.
Monmonth County: Located in central New Jersey, along the shore. Contains Asbury Park. Christie won by 31 points. This county did go for McCain in 2008, but only by 3 percentage points.
Burlington County: Across from Philadelphia, largely a suburb of Philadelphia. Chris Christie took it by 2.6 percentage points. In 2008, Obama took this county by 19 points.
Camden County: Across from Philadelphia. Home to the scenic City of Camden. Corzine won this county by 14 points, but Obama won it by 37 points.
Gloucester County: South Jersey. Across from Delaware County, PA, and New Castle County, DE. Christie took it by 3.4 percentage points despite Obama winning by 13 points.
Salem County: Across from Delaware, South Jersey. Christie by 6.5%. Obama took Salem County by 4 points.
Atlantic County: Along the South Jersey shore, north of Cape May County. Historically regarded as a Republican County, Obama managed to take it by a surprising margin of 15 points, but Christie won it by 3.5 points.

Looking at vote totals, this is almost entirely a story of Democratic voters just not showing up to the polls. Considering how much capital Obama and the Dems dumped into saving Corzine, and how much money Corzine spent on this race, it is not at all good news for Democrats to have lost so much ground. Combine this with Republican showings in the ring counties around Philadelphia just across the river, and it spells out of a story of GOP voters, and Independent voters who lean GOP being far more motivated to show up to the polls. In New Jersey, the counties where Democrats lost the most are just the type of middle class suburban counties that Democrats have made significant gains with. The erosion of support in very wealthy counties like Mercer show that Democrats need to be worried about their support among the rich too, even though they were still able to win there. That might not be the case in wealthy counties that aren’t as strongly blue.

Next we’ll take a look at how the GOP fared in the Philadelphia ring counties.

Beware of the Dolphins

Tyler Cowen has an interesting example of dolphins learning how to trade up for better treats. He enjoyed the story.

I’m concerned that this is a sign of the end times, at least if Lisa Simpson lets that damn dolphin go free.

Wisconsin AG Gets Permission to File Brief

Oddly, in Wisconsin, the elected Attorney General is not allowed to sign on to briefs without permission from another branch.

In Heller, he did not get permission or did not seek it soon enough. In the effort to get the Chicago case to the Court, he also did not sign on to an effort by many other AGs, and gun owners finally called him out on it. He said it wasn’t his fault.

Interestingly, after that pressure, Van Hollen has secured permission early enough to actually get a brief into the Court for McDonald. That’s good for gun owners, good for Wisconsin, and good on Van Hollen for getting around to asking permission in time.

Bradys Spin as Predicted

A few days ago I said:

Now when NRA candidates in Virginia win in a landslide, Brady will no doubt claim itâ€™s because of other issues.

Right on cue:

For better or worse, guns didnâ€™t play a prominent role in the outcomes of any of the four high-profile races yesterday â€” Virginia Governor, New York-23, New Jersey Governor, and New York City Mayor.Â By almost all accounts, theÂ bad economy andÂ high unemployment were the key ballot-box issues.

The thing is they are right, largely. The gun vote is only a component of McDonnell’s landslide victory, and Christie certainly isn’t our guy, but nor is he a sworn opponent to our point of view.Â I said the same thing about the 2008 election, and its funny to see Brady using my spin only a year later. But there’s a difference.

We can at least point to some evidence that we can affect elections to a large degree on the margins. Where is the Brady equivalent? What is the Brady margin? No single issue group can swing an election under all circumstances, but we at least have some idea what our margin is.

UPDATE: I suppose I should thank Doug, or whoever is doing the Brady Blog these days, for the link. We’ll have to see how much traffic a Brady link drives these days. Good thing I performance turned my server. I await the hordes to arrive!

MAIG in PA Just Lost 16 More Members

After last night’s results came in, Bloomberg’s anti-gun group is down another 16 mayors in Pennsylvania – and that’s the minimum number. Unfortunately a few of the rural counties (and at least one not-so-rural county) don’t seem to have heard of this new-fangled internet thingamajig. They don’t post their results online. Another has a weird thing of not posting municipal races online even though at the county level, they still have to count those votes.

Most of Bloomberg’s losses in Pennsylvania actually came through attrition. Most of those mayors opted not to run again. Some lost in their primary elections, and others in the general election last night.

Overwhelmingly, Bloomberg will claim success though. The reason? Most of his mayors won re-election with more than 90% of the vote! (Because they had no challengers.) But don’t you know, his lobbyist that he shares with Handgun Control, Inc. – Max Nacheman – will no doubt claim that it is an overwhelming mandate for more gun control in the Commonwealth.

Of course, Nacheman has also been claiming that he has tons of new mayors in Pennsylvania who signed up with Bloomberg just to spite NRA. Funny, those dozens he claimed to Monica Yant Kinney – a whooping one. And he’s from a Philly suburb. There’s a shocker. So Nacheman’s claims are, at best, dubious until he shows his hand.

There were less than a dozen contested races for MAIG mayors in Pennsylvania. Most were won by the incumbents because their challengers weren’t serious candidates based on returns. However, there were a few who were very close to being knocked out – by 4 or 5 points. To think, NRA’s Pennsylvania liaison wasn’t even involved in these local races and yet MAIG sent CeaseFire PA out to endorse in those close races. (That’s a reasonably safe assumption since Nacheman is also connected to them through his previous political work.) Can you imagine if NRA had stepped in to those towns? That could have been a fun game to play.

NRA doesn’t really play at this level of politics. So whether we like it or not, Bloomberg has a leg up on us at this point. He’s got a paid lobbyist that he shares with a national gun control group and who has a long relationship (and sway) with a state gun control group on the ground here. We rely on volunteers for most of these battles. This is a brand new challenge for us, and it will bite us in the ass in Harrisburg if we don’t cut it off right now. For the Pennsylvania readers, that means work to do over the next 2-4 years. It won’t be fun work. But on election night, it will feel damn good.

Good Night for the Second Amendment

Another good night for the Second Amendment, according to Dave Kopel. This is considering higher profile races, where we did indeed succeed. Bitter is currently researching, and will be posting later, how MAIG mayors faired in the elections. NRA did not get involved in mayoral races in Pennsylvania, but by now gun owners are aware, and while we got rid of a lot of MAIG mayors, not all of them we got rid of in head-to-head races. I will let Bitter give you the more informed view of our ongoing battle against MAIG.

One good thing about last night, Bloomberg paid something like $180 dollars for every vote he got, and he didn’t win by a huge margin. If Bloomberg has to keep dumping this kind of money into getting re-elected, we have to wonder how long it will be before he doesn’t have any money left over for MAIG!

Hey, Obama & Pelosi

Middle Finger

I get no points for class or maturity, I know. But I think a little gloating every now and then is good for our Republic, and considering how much work I put into the 2008 election, only to suffer loss and discouragement, I get to gloat over this.

GOP sweep in a landslide in Virginia, and Corzine is out, and by a lot more than anyone thought. Apparently in New Jersey, we also turned a few Assembly seats, including one in Fred “One-Gun-A-Month” Madden’s district. It’s an awful repudiation of Obama and Pelosi’s agenda, and when combined with the New York Mayors race, which was far closer than anyone thought, shows that beating on the gun control drum doesn’t really help you much.

If Blue Dogs aren’t crapping their pants yet, they ought to be. The 2010 elections are only a year away, and Corzine’s defeat by nearly 5 points shows that Obama can’t be counted on to save you, even in a very blue state!

A Few Election Highlights

Well, Virginia looks not just good, but great. As of this posting, with more than 80% of the precincts reporting, we’re looking at a 20% decisive win. I look forward to the Brady spin that NRA is irrelevant in this race. If so, then why was Creigh Deeds trying to pretend he still had the NRA’s support? As much as the Brady Bunch must love that he wants to “close the gun show loophole,” it’s got to hurt that he was only willing to throw them the one bone and even then, he would publicly run from it.

I haven’t seen anything clear on NY-23 yet. That’s going to be interesting regardless of the result. I do believe no matter what happens, the Democrats will end up more powerful in the state Assembly.

In New Jersey, we’re going to be in for a long night. You just know that an ACORN worker will find a box (or 100) of uncounted ballots for Corzine in a closet somewhere if Christie appears to be the winner. When you start charting specific cases of fraud as soon as the voting booths open, it’s not going to be a clean election.

Tonight I also plan to check in on the Bloomberg-controlled anti-gun mayors of Pennsylvania. Keep in mind that local election sites vary in their quality, and many mayors are not challenged, it could be tough to figure out for a few days.

UPDATE: Cam at NRA News just reported that Creigh Deeds just conceded. He apparently waited until 87% of precincts reported that he was down 20 points before thinking he might not have a shot.

UPDATE: WOW. Wow. wow. Everyone calling for Christie. And yet Gibbs is trying to claim that Obama just doesn’t care about the returns.

Also, Bloomberg is up by less than 2 points with about 2/3 of the precincts. Could he be in danger? I would tend to doubt that he’ll lose, but he does not have a mandate. Give him hell, New Yorkers.

UPDATE: Judicial elections here in PA are looking mixed. So far the 2 seats for Commonwealth Court look to go to NRA-endorsed candidates. For Superior Court, 2 of the 4 seats look to go to NRA endorsed candidates.