I’ve been analyzing the election results for Philadelphia and its suburbs.Â It paints a picture of low Republican turnout, a gradual eroding of the Republican base over the last four years, and huge gains in Democratic registration which seems to have rather obviously helped Barack Obama.
|Votes for Party Candidates for President||Difference|
|Year||County||Democrat||Republican||Year||Democrat||Republican||Difference Dem||Difference Rep|
|Voter Registration Statistics|
Looking at the numbers, Philadelphia actually did not have phenomenally high number of newly registered Democrats.Â But turnout was higher, but not much higher, than in 2004.Â One can also see that Republican turnout was depressed in several suburban counties, and in Philadelphia.Â Only Bucks managed to turn out in comparable numbers to 2004, but it wasn’t enough to sway the county.Â This strikes me as a group of voters who are just particularly not excited to be Republicans, and to get out to support Republican candidates.Â Pretty clearly, we had Republicans voting for Obama in larger numbers than we could afford.
This also shows the suburbs are bleeding Republicans.Â In many cases, Republicans switched registratoin to vote in the primary, but it doesn’t seem like they are planning to come back to the party, or that they voted for McCain.Â The GOP is in a lot of trouble in the Philadelphia suburbs, and if we don’t start getting more registered Republican voters, we’re finished as a traditional Republican stronghold.Â It might already be too late.