Silly Season Weather Forecast

One thing we’re paying careful attention to is weather. Weather is one of those things that affect election turnout. When the weather is bad, it typically benefits the side on the motivated side of the enthusiasm gap. This year, that’s going to be the evil tea party sympathizers. We would absolutely love a giant cloud hanging out over the city of Philadelphia, pouring down rain there and nowhere else on election day. But that’s not very likely.

Still, I’m pleased that the forecast seems to be calling for rain in the Northeast. Granted, forecasts out this far aren’t much more scientific than a wild assed guess, but we’ll keep hoping.

McCarthy’s Troubles

Jacob has been following the continuing troubles of Carolyn McCarthy, and notes that NRA is hitting that district on behalf of Becker. The Democrats are having a difficult time even manning the firewall. John Richardson notes that McCarthy is running attack ads, which is something not typically done by candidates who are on top.

This is one election I’m going to be watching with anticipation on Tuesday night.

Thirdpower Asks the Question

What have you done:

While everyone has the right to express their opinion, what have you done to make your opinion actually worth something? Besides sending in your annual check I mean.

His point is well taken, in that in most pro-gun groups your membership fee isn’t doing much to help protect your rights, but I wouldn’t ding someone who has better things to do with their time, but makes up for it by writing checks to help the cause. In fact, for people who live in safe districts for gun rights, that might actually be the best use of your resources.

Since my luck in recruiting volunteers for campaigns here has been virtually non-existent, I’ve been thinking about other ways to influence candidates. One thing we tried this year was fundraising in small increments. I’m not sure we were any more successful at raising money than we have been at raising volunteers, but the idea, essentially, is to spread donations out among a lot of pro-gun candidates in the hopes they notice there’s a constituency willing to give money for the Second Amendment. My belief is that it’s probably better for 20 pro-gun candidates to get ten dollars and a note that says “Thanks for supporting the Second Amendment,” than it does for one candidate to get 200 dollars.

One reason we haven’t been able to get rid of Patrick Murphy is because of the amount of money this guy can pull in from outside the district. He is a fundraising machine. The left is far better at this game than the right, and infinitely better at it than libertarians. If you live in a safe district, consider a small donation to a pro-gun campaign in a district that’s not so safe. Most states have them somewhere, so you’d probably not be looking at a completely altruistic donation to a race that doesn’t remotely affect your own situation. Most state nd local activists worth their salt will be able to tell you which races they are concerned with in any given election.

NRA-PVF certainly donates to candidates, but they are a PAC, and PACs are limited by campaign finance rules in how much they can donate. Individual donations still matter.

Bloomberg Looking to Avoid a Lawsuit

Apparently he went to New York City Council with a plan to cut gun permit fees to anywhere between $25 and $110 bucks. City Council says no.

“There’s no way I could vote on this. Since I’ve been in the council, we’ve voted on numerous bills where fees and fines were increased and it would send a strange message to New Yorkers that the one fine we look to reduce is the fee and fine to permit a gun,” Councilman Erik Dilan (D-Brooklyn), who did not attend the caucus, said.

Thank you, Erik Dilan, for calling it a “fine.” You’re making the inevitable multi-million dollar lawsuit against your city that much easier. Another fine council member notes wonders why they would get sued when the fee has been that high for years, as if length of time on the books has anything to do with a statutes constitutionality. What kind of screwed up place is New York City when Bloomberg is the pro-gun guy in this picture?

It’s the Gift that Keeps on Giving

Our favorite Brady Board member:

As I have said over and over and over again- yes sir, it is legal to sell guns to felons in most states that have not passed a law to require background checks on all gun sales at gun shows. Private sellers are more than just people selling occasionally. Some of these private sellers sell hundreds of guns a year at gun shows. That is a fact that cannot be avoided…

Under current law, it is never lawful, in any state, to knowingly sell a gun to a felon, whether there’s a background check conducted or not. It is never legal for a felon to purchase a firearm, whether from an FFL or from a private seller. It is never legal to sell a firearm to someone who does not reside in the same state that you do. It is again, not legal for someone to be engaged in the business of selling firearms and to not hold a federal firearms license. This is all current law. I could quote the relevant parts of federal statutes, but I think most people here are familiar with them.

So essentially, the leaders of the gun control movement are advocating we make changes to federal law, when they don’t even really understand what federal law currently is. Not only that, but if there’s a coherent argument for ending private transfers coming out of Common Gunsense, I’ve yet to hear it. This is in spite of some people being willing to have a dialog on the issue.

We can certainly talk about enforcement of these current laws at gun shows, and how we can do better. ATF has undermined enforcement of illegal trafficking at gun shows by not being able to help itself from using strong-armed police state tactics when it’s tried. A better run agency would find a lot of willing help from the firearms community when it comes to preventing people dealing and buying unlawfully, but they don’t, and part of the reason is ATF’s long history of treating their mission as if it were to destroy the lawful commerce in firearms rather than to ensure that the firearms commerce proceeds according to the law.

Another DCCC Attack Ad

This one is incredulous that these dangerous tea party types actually believe the federal government’s powers are limited to those constitutionally enumerated:

This is running in Colorado. These people are utterly incredulous that anyone would have to audacity to tell them their power is limited. We need to beat these totalitarians roundly next week.

DCCC Running Anti-Gun Ads for Lentz

If I were a Pennsylvania blue dog, I’d be livid that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was running this ad. This was run during the Phillies game on Saturday. This goes to show that we absolutely have to make sure that Lentz doesn’t win a congressional seat:

Interesting they show a submachine gun as an assault rifle, isn’t it? And interesting how the supposed loophole has nothing to do with either assault rifles or submachine guns. But when has the truth ever been an obstacle for gun haters like Lentz?

If you want to help the Meehan campaign, and please do, you can donate here, or volunteer here. He needs help. We have to win this one.

UPDATE: You know, this isn’t even a federal issue. This is a state issue. But how many people realize that?

Magic Bullets

Generally speaking, I’m skeptical of  folks who sell easy fixes to complex problems. For example, there are some who argue that if we just repealed the 17th Amendment (direct election of Senators) then we’d restore the checks and balances necessary to get a smaller government outcome. I’m skeptical of that claim, and tend to be of any solution that just seems too easy.

But that doesn’t mean I don’t look for magic bullets myself. One conclusion I’ve come to is that we honestly make it way too easy for people to vote. That sounds kind of crazy on the surface, because we revere the act of voting in our country. I wouldn’t argue for a return to the days when only wealthy landowners voted, or we denied the franchise to people based on gender or race. But I would argue that people who want better and smaller government should generally resist efforts to get more people voting.

This weekend I was calling mostly soft Republicans and Independents, meaning they tend not to vote in primaries, and often skip elections. These are usually people campaigns ignore, but this year the hard Republicans are fired up, and the federal campaigns are going to do a better job of making sure they turn out. While I was encouraged at the level of support we had among these soft voters, I was surprised that a week out from election day how many people did not know the candidates, hadn’t made up their mind, and had no issues that the could name that they were concerned about.

My feeling is our Republic would be better off if we made these people go through a little extra effort to be able to vote, in the hopes that the casual, uninformed voter won’t bother. Even if they do end up getting to the polls and punching the ballot for our guys, I’m not comforted by the fact that I’m pretty sure their voting choices are going to be made by something not much more rigorous than a coin toss. I if the corrupting influence of money in elections is something you worry about, consider that the vast sums of money campaigns spend for expensive media buys are aimed at these voters.

But that’s not to say I have much in the way of specific proposals. One thing I thought of is that if you miss more than two general elections, you get automatically purged from the voter rolls, and have to renew your registration. That would certainly make the jobs of volunteers easier, because casual voters generally get more angry about being called or visited by campaigns vying for their votes, whereas regular voters are usually more polite, and more interested in talking about issues.

So how would this help liberty? Well, I’m not sure it’s any more of a magic bullet than repealing the 17th Amendment, to be honest, but a big component of electoral politics involves political activists manipulating the casual voters to come out for their guys. Given that liberty generally doesn’t bring activism to the table in any tangible way (at least not before the Tea Party movement), having a voter pool that’s more engaged and less prone to manipulation would hopefully hamper those pushing for big government than it would pushing for smaller government. Think about soft voters as the “soundbite voters,” and decide whether you agree with me that liberty would be better served if we made these people jump through a few more hoops to be able to cast their ballots?

UPDATE: I should make it clear, everyone would have to jump through the same hoops. The idea is that motivated and informed voters will.