January 2010 – Page 13 – Shall Not Be Questioned

Some Political Reality for the 8th District

Bitter did an excellent job of covering the candidate forum in our Congressional district last night, which highlighted all the folks who are lining up to challenge Democrat Patrick Murphy for his Congressional seat in 2010. I was disappointed that the Second Amendment received no consideration in the questioning of each candidate, but let’s face it, that’s not really the hot issue right now. We do have a wide selection of free market oriented candidates, but I think we need to be cautious, and make sure we’re supporting someone who can actually win. In determining what formula you need to win, it’s worthwhile to look at the district as a whole. Some facts:

The 8th District Congressional seat flips more often than many. In the past 30 years, it’s flipped parties four times. Prior to that, it was in Republican hands from 1923 to 1977. This is not a seat either party can take for granted.
Democrats enjoy a healthy registration advantage over Republicans in our district. Republicans can only win by two means, turnout, and carrying large numbers of independent voters. In 2010, turnout will probably work in the GOP’s favor. But I’m going to be looking for a candidate that can carry independents.
Because our district is a swing district, I’m not too keen on a candidate who’s going to agree to term limit himself. If we can get a conservative or moderate Republican in that office, I want to keep him there as long as he can stay. Let’s not go through this again in a few years. The GOP class of 1994 had several Congressmen who made this mistake.

I’m not a rigid believer in politics by the numbers, because so much goes into winning an election, but ultimately it is about getting enough votes to win, and in our district that’s going to mean carrying independents in large enough numbers to overcome the GOPs registration disadvantage. When I hear a candidate say they want to abolish the department of education, or get rid of the home mortgage tax deduction, I might be sympathetic, but those aren’t winning issues. Murphy is going to be tough to beat, even in 2010. He has a strong support base, and a lot of money. I want a candidate that can not only beat him, but hold off strong Democratic challengers. After last night, I’m concerned we don’t have that candidate. I can see why the County GOP might want to tap Fitzpatrick again. But given that Fitz lost to Murphy in 2006, I don’t think that’s him either. The GOP in Bucks County desperately needs some new blood, and unfortunately for us, it takes time to incubate talent at the local level, before someone with experience and ambition agrees to step forward. Last night we were long on ambition, which is good, but short on political experience, which is necessary. I am optimistic, because 2010 will be a hell of a year for the GOP, but my optimism is guarded.

Losing Our A+ Rated Speaker?

It looks like Pennsylvanians are losing the NRA-PVF A+ rated Speaker of the House with Rep. Keith McCall’s anticipated retirement.

This makes the state elections much more important this year.

The 8th District Circus Candidate Forum

Last night, we gave up a couple of hours to civic duty in the name of being educated voters. The local Tea Party organization, Kitchen Table Patriots, did an absolutely swell job at pulling together a great event that served as a fantastic way to weed out the serious candidates from the not-so-serious candidates. Just about everyone in attendance – and they filled a large school auditorium – could walk away feeling like they had a choice of key candidates.

But that’s not very fun to report, so in comes the snark. And some interesting observations about Patrick Murphy via his sleazy staffers who kept violating the rules to disrupt those around them.

General Observations
These kinds of events are very hard on candidates, especially if they don’t have any formal public speaking experience or haven’t been trained to really rally an audience. While my criticism will mostly be snark, it also pales in comparison to what Patrick Murphy’s deceitful little followers will say. Not to mention, if some of the candidates had more confidence, they could have better sold their most controversial plans. I have two very specific examples of this winning over audience members with one candidate and costing support to another.

The moderator, Steve Highsmith, did a fantastic job at keeping the event running smoothly. He was friendly and engaging without getting boring and monotonous with the same questions for each candidate. Since there were 9 candidates each getting 12 minutes, that was serious work.

There were some crappy questions. Like the “Yes or No: We should weaken Roe v. Wade.” What does that even mean? You’re talking about one of the most hotly debated legal questions of our time, it’s hardly a yes or no answer. They also asked candidates to take an ATR-esque pledge on taxes that all save one agreed to. I will say now that there were no questions or remarks about the Second Amendment.

One big surprise of the evening was a question about medical marijuana. They asked it in the context of 10th amendment, and whether or not candidates agreed with President Obama’s executive order to not go after those growing & distributing medical marijuana in states that have legalized it. Half of the candidates agreed! Holy cow! The old woman in front of me was in great distress every time someone agreed, so I took extra joy in each answer. It was wrong, but I laughed inside each time she shook her head disapprovingly. I was tempted to say something controversial involving drugs, alcohol, and sex in front of her for kicks, but I figured after the crazy controversy of medical marijuana, her heart could probably only stand so much… Continue reading “The 8th District ~~Circus~~ Candidate Forum”

Gun Boom Cooling Off

Gun Pundit reports on the NSSF report on December NICS numbers. What’s interesting is that the numbers are still pretty elevated over 2007.

A Favor to Keep Friendly Relationships

NRA is throwing its support behind an effort to improve the Law Enforcement Officer Safety Act, which allows retired and off-duty police officers to carry their firearms nationwide. I know this is not hugely popular among some of the grass roots, and even I have some reservations about whether it’s constitutional, but it’s important to keep law enforcement rank and file on our side. Remember the last time we lost support of the Fraternal Order of Police? It was the early 90s, and I don’t think too many of us need a refresher on what happened then. Consider this a favor in order to keep friendly relationships. I’ll support law enforcement in this, as long as the FOP keeps supporting us, especially on the Tiahrt issue, which MAIG and Brady are directly opposed to, and which the FOP favors.

Harold Ford Now Anti-Gun Enough for NY

Harold Ford, based on NRA grades, was never a gun owner’s best friend. But as a C rated candidate in Tennessee, that’s not nearly anti-gun enough for Manhattan. Via Dave Adams at @VSSA, we find out that Ford is now declaring that record to be not representative of his new views.

I remain committed to promoting gun safety and handgun control, and I look forward to working with Mayor Bloomberg and Newark Mayor Corey Booker and their coalition to reduce handgun violence in cities across America.

Purple Menace

Great Satan Inc has a rifle that would make Mayor Bloomberg’s stomach turn. Not only is it purple, in defiance of Mayor Mike’s crusade against colored guns, but the thumbhole stock makes it an evil assault weapon under some definitions, including New York City’s, I believe. The magazine that goes into the firearm is illegal in New York City (limited to 5 rounds).

That’s what Mayor Mike means when he speaks of common sense laws to fight illegal gun trafficking.

More Pain in the Gun Control World

Days of our Trailers has done a good job of covering this last week, first with some of the local Illinois groups also merging, and consolidating under umbrella groups, like we saw with CeaseFire New Jersey merging under a peace group umbrella. Also, he’s found that Joyce is cutting VPC’s funding by a fairly significant amount.

It’s going to be painful days ahead for the gun control movement, as their funding dries up. This does not mean the gun control movement is going away, or that we can declare “Machine guns for everyone!” and wrap this whole thing up in a few years. The gun control movement is reinventing itself, as it has many times throughout its history. Expect more groups appearing under the MAIG model. Not necessarily with mayors, but in terms of rebranding their same gun control proposals as a crusade against “illegal guns” and “illegal gun trafficking.” Will it be any more successful than the current banner they march under? Who knows. We can’t take any chances, however. I will say this, MAIG has shown themselves to be smart enough that when the pendulum swings back, it’s going to swing hard. Our job is to make sure it never swings back.

Money Bomb for Scott Brown

If you want a head start on decreasing the Democrat’s majority in 2010, I would suggest that folks consider taking part in the money bomb for Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown. On guns, he’s been good on the issues as long as I was following the minutiae of the Bay State’s gun control debates.

I don’t want to completely get your hopes up about this race. If you opened a dictionary, this would be the definition of long shot.

BUT, for those you who paid attention to the Massachusetts political scene several years ago, remember that his current Senate seat was formerly held by Cheryl Jacques. Remember her? He won that seat in a special election against her staffer, Angus McQuilken. So remember that anything is possible. So if you have a few spare bucks in your wallet today, lend a hand to the long shot campaign today. Let’s make sure that we don’t lose it because of a lack of resources in the last few days.

It’s High Time

Since there aren’t too many bloggers that cover New Jersey politics from a Second Amendment angle, I decided it was high time I added a category specifically for New Jersey. Nothing happens in this issue in a vacuum, and we’ve had more than a few examples of New Jersey based activists crossing the river to push for gun control in Pennsylvania. Bitter and I keep a close eye on what happens in New Jersey, and are in regular communication with leaders in the issue over there. I feel confident we can provide good coverage for New Jersey gun owners.