Whew!

Earlier today I heard a rumor that Roberts was stepping down as Chief Justice for “personal reasons.” It turns out that the rumor was false. Thank God for us, because we’d be utterly fscked if that were the case. They all have to stay on/alive for the next few months. Let’s not have any unexpected resignations or deaths. I heard that Scalia is a smoker. Please Justice Scalia, try some of this.

Philly Inquirer Hysterical about McDonald

So they say in a recent editorial:

Assuming that the court is willing to overturn century-old legal precedent to apply its ruling outside the nation’s capital, it will be embarking on a social and legal experiment that’s likely to play out across the chalk outlines on many cities’ mean streets.

Except we can see pretty clearly that’s utter bunk.

Voting Freedom First

The Brady Campaign thinks they can compete on the grassroots front with us. It’s so naive that I think it’s kinda cute. This morning they put out a call to action on Twitter and Facebook asking their followers (a good number of whom are actually pro-gun) to go vote in a Wall Street Journal poll on whether Starbucks should cave and insert themselves into this issue. (Don’t follow the link @bradybuzz sent, it’s wrong. Use this one to vote freedom first today.)

Then a writer for Consumerist decides to profile the situation and only quote anti-gun leaders before putting up a poorly-worded poll about the issue. They claim the company has changed their policy to allow guns, but that’s not true. No policy has changed. However, they have still added a poll to gauge support for the issue. Here’s another chance to vote freedom first by choosing either the 2nd or 4th option – supporting the policy or don’t care and will buy anyway.

So if this is the game that Paul wants to play, let’s show him how it’s played. It will be a nice little preview of November.

McDonald Final Thoughts

Although there will likely be no formal ruling from the Supreme Court on the McDonald case for several months, the case is effectively finished for the petitioning and responding parties. It is in the hands of the nine Justices, and is theirs to decide. This makes a good time to reflect on the case, and look over the transcript in more detail, try to read the tea leaves a little, and share impressions.

The most surprising thing to me was how fast the Court, and in particular Justice Scalia and Chief Justice Roberts, put the kibosh on the Privileges or Immunities argument. Not so much because I expected we’d win the day with P or I, but because it seemed in taking McDonald over the NRA case, the court likely wanted P or I argued to some degree. That would appear to not be the case. Perhaps some light will be shed on their reasoning in the opinion, with Thomas being the Justice to watch there, but we may never know why the court took the case it did. I don’t think Alan Gura was wrong in bringing up P or I. It was reasonable to believe the Court wanted to hear that, and this was really the prime opportunity to get the court to rethink its redaction of Privileges or Immunities from the Fourteenth Amendment. Gura had to deal with some pretty rough questioning, but he held it together, and make an excellent case.

Clement’s argument adequately and adeptly covered the easier due process argument. Clement did not seem to face as much questioning from the Justices, I suspect because due process arguments just aren’t as controversial, and are better understood by the justices. The main thread that seemed to be brought here was the liberal justices inquiring about partial incorporation, or as the math geek in me wants to call it, Incorporation By Parts. The idea would seem to be you incorporate part of the right, but leave the rest for another day, or perhaps decline to do it at all. The justification for this is that we’ve incorporated, partially, the Fifth Amendment, with a different standard applying to the states and feds. This could be a potential danger for us when the opinion comes down. We could still have a victory, but on weak terms. That’s not what we want. Fortunately, I think the respondents helped us out there.

James Feldman represented the City of Chicago, who seemed to so thoroughly tie his hands, that they will likely see their worst nightmares realized. The Heller dissenting justices seemed to desperately want Feldman to grab one of their life buoys, and come on board the USS Incorporation by Parts, which Feldman was having none of. It’s very difficult to argue an untenable position, but Feldman tried, I think largely unsuccessfully.

One final matter, I had disagreed with NRA-ILA’s Motion for Divided Argument in this case, and my disagreements were expressed more strongly in private correspondence than was indicated here publicly. Without meaning to detract any from Alan Gura’s performance and arguments, and also retaining hope that in the future there will be a stronger spirit of cooperation, respect and communication in any future cases we’re arguing, I was glad Paul Clement was up there, and I will freely admit here, and to the people I corresponded with, that I was wrong about many of my concerns. Overall, the strong performance on our side by both Alan Gura and Mr. Clement made a strong case for victory. I’m still going to keep my fingers crossed, and I suspect everyone reading this will as well, but I don’t think anyone has anything to feel glum about. I want to again thank everyone who was involved in this case, and who put it together, briefed, moot courted, and ultimately argued it. As I said before, we’re very fortunate to have such competent and talented advocates.

Correlation on Brady Rankings and Crime

I decided to run the Brady State Rankings through Excel, and see if there was any correlation to violent crime rates. The short answer, no. You can see the scatter chart here:

Brady State Ranking Versus Violent Crime

I’m no good at Excel charting, so what I did was plot the violent crime rate (per 100,000) for each state (y-axis) against its Brady Grade (x-axis). I’ve seen folks picking certain data from one side or another to support the assertion that Brady rank means higher violent crime. In truth, there’s no correlation. If you run the r-squared correlation on the two data sets, you get 0.0005, which is effectively uncorrelated. This shouldn’t make anyone at the Brady Campaign too excited, because while it would seem that passing gun control laws doesn’t make violent crime go up, it doesn’t make it go down either. There’s a much stronger correlation, for instance, between annual mean temperature of a state, and violent crime, which means global warming will surely kill us all.

UPDATE: It occurs to me that Justice Breyer seems to want a statistical based test for scrutiny for the Second Amendment. From the McDonald oral argument transcripts:

There are two ways. One is that — look at — all you have to do is look at the briefs. Look at the statistics. You know, one side says a million people killed by guns. Chicago says that their — their gun law has saved hundreds, including and they have statistics — including lots of women in domestic cases. And the other side disputes it. This is a highly statistical matter. Without incorporation, it’s decided by State legislatures; with, it’s decided by Federal judges.

I wonder how he would interpret this pretty damning data on the effectiveness of gun control laws.

Who’s Bringin’ the Stupid Today?

I pose the title question in a format that Senator Daylin Leach may understand – given that it reflects his own rhetoric against those with whom he disagrees.

Senator Leach, in all the wisdom he can muster, tried to explain his theory – which we will call Leach’s Law – on the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court that might have reached #fail proportions.

Our favorite 5 are nothing if not predictable. You don’t even have to know the issue before the court to know who is going to win. All you need to know are the litigants. So for example, if it’s a prosecutor vs. a criminal defendant, well then the prosecutor is going to win. If it’s a civil-rights plaintiff vs. a company accused of discrimination, then the company is going to win, unless the plaintiffs are white guys, in which case the white guys are going to win. In fact, its a pretty good rule of thumb that if the case is white guys against anyone else for any reason the white guys are going to win.

Using Senator Leach’s theory, let’s examine the McDonald case.

Otis McDonald is not white. Colleen Lawson is not a man. Chicago, in this case, plays the role of prosecutor. And both McDonald and Lawson, along with the other plaintiffs, are seeking relief from a civil rights violation. Under Leach’s Law, the five Justices will vote that the handgun ban stands and governments are free to continue denying a fundamental right to minority citizens.

Wait. That’s not the conclusion he reaches. I guess even Leach’s Law is meant to be broken every once in a while since he actually believes the minority parties will win over the government oppressing a civil right.

If you want more of his twisted logic, feel free to click on over and read why he looks forward to the result of the case so he can push more gun control. (See, I told you it was twisted.)

The Washington Experience

Over the course of the weekend, we met up with at least four lobbyists from wildly varying industries/issues who all know each other and work together from time-to-time when their issues cross. And while you hear some politicians decry “special interests” in politics, every single one of them represents real people on the ground or industries that make products you and I use every day. These people are not just my friends and acquaintances, they really do represent me. And if you read and enjoy this blog, they represent you, too. Remember that any time a politician decries a “special interest,” they are really complaining that someone who disagrees with them has the nerve to speak up.

Starbucks Continuing to Hold

Makes me wonder how loud they are going to have to say no before the gun control groups get it:

As the public debate continues, we are asking all interested parties to refrain from putting Starbucks or our partners into the middle of this divisive issue. As a company, we are extremely sensitive to the issue of gun violence in our society. Our Starbucks family knows all too well the dangers that exist when guns are used irresponsibly and illegally. Without minimizing this unfortunate reality, we believe that supporting local laws is the right way for us to ensure a safe environment for both partners and customers.

I agree. I should be clear we were not calling for any counter protest of Abby Spangler’s protests earlier. I was just asking people to patronize the local Starbucks, and perhaps express some sentiment that they don’t agree with the spectacle going on outside. No need to bring guns into it.

I don’t demand Starbucks take my side. I just want them to stay out. And staying out will earn our appreciation.

UPDATE: Sad, true, and funny.

Transcript for McDonald

Anyone looking for the transcript for McDonald v. Chicago can find it here. I would have linked this yesterday, but couldn’t stop one place long enough to look for it and link it. I only could work through the iPhone. I managed to get a paper copy yesterday thanks to Chris Cox, fortunately.