This might give some indication of where people will fall in the Sotomayor confirmation vote for the Supreme Court. In looking at the chances of defeating Sotomayer, you’d basically have to assess the committee. If she hits the floor, she’s confirmed. Of the Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Hatch was the only yes vote, but the Democrats only need one vote from the minority party to get her out of committee. Sessions, who is now the ranking member of the committee voted no on her way back in 1998. Grassley and Kyl both voted against her. The rest were not in the Senate when she was voted on back in 1998. It might be possible for the GOP to mount a protest.
But there are other factors that will be considered, as to whether the GOP will put up more than token resistance against Sotomayor, and that’s whether or not what could come in her wake might be worse. You’re not going to get a conservative pick out of this administration, or even a moderate pick. Sotomayor will no doubt be a reliable left vote on The Court, but there are other people in the realm of possible choices who would also be reliably left, but who have the intellectual background to be leaders on The Court. The question will be, as bad as Sotomayor might be, could what follows behind her be worse? The answer might very well be yes, and the GOP might decide to give in on this one. The real danger for conservatives, and for Second Amendment activists, is that Obama gets to replace one of the Heller five with a reliably left-voting justice. Let’s hope, no pray, that Justice Kennedy and Justice Scalia can hold on until this long national nightmare is over.
