This is the best summary of the McDonald transcript EVER. If you haven’t already seen it linked from other gun blogs, go read it.
Author: Sebastian
Whew!
Earlier today I heard a rumor that Roberts was stepping down as Chief Justice for “personal reasons.” It turns out that the rumor was false. Thank God for us, because we’d be utterly fscked if that were the case. They all have to stay on/alive for the next few months. Let’s not have any unexpected resignations or deaths. I heard that Scalia is a smoker. Please Justice Scalia, try some of this.
Philly Inquirer Hysterical about McDonald
So they say in a recent editorial:
Assuming that the court is willing to overturn century-old legal precedent to apply its ruling outside the nation’s capital, it will be embarking on a social and legal experiment that’s likely to play out across the chalk outlines on many cities’ mean streets.
McDonald Final Thoughts
Although there will likely be no formal ruling from the Supreme Court on the McDonald case for several months, the case is effectively finished for the petitioning and responding parties. It is in the hands of the nine Justices, and is theirs to decide. This makes a good time to reflect on the case, and look over the transcript in more detail, try to read the tea leaves a little, and share impressions.
The most surprising thing to me was how fast the Court, and in particular Justice Scalia and Chief Justice Roberts, put the kibosh on the Privileges or Immunities argument. Not so much because I expected we’d win the day with P or I, but because it seemed in taking McDonald over the NRA case, the court likely wanted P or I argued to some degree. That would appear to not be the case. Perhaps some light will be shed on their reasoning in the opinion, with Thomas being the Justice to watch there, but we may never know why the court took the case it did. I don’t think Alan Gura was wrong in bringing up P or I. It was reasonable to believe the Court wanted to hear that, and this was really the prime opportunity to get the court to rethink its redaction of Privileges or Immunities from the Fourteenth Amendment. Gura had to deal with some pretty rough questioning, but he held it together, and make an excellent case.
Clement’s argument adequately and adeptly covered the easier due process argument. Clement did not seem to face as much questioning from the Justices, I suspect because due process arguments just aren’t as controversial, and are better understood by the justices. The main thread that seemed to be brought here was the liberal justices inquiring about partial incorporation, or as the math geek in me wants to call it, Incorporation By Parts. The idea would seem to be you incorporate part of the right, but leave the rest for another day, or perhaps decline to do it at all. The justification for this is that we’ve incorporated, partially, the Fifth Amendment, with a different standard applying to the states and feds. This could be a potential danger for us when the opinion comes down. We could still have a victory, but on weak terms. That’s not what we want. Fortunately, I think the respondents helped us out there.
James Feldman represented the City of Chicago, who seemed to so thoroughly tie his hands, that they will likely see their worst nightmares realized. The Heller dissenting justices seemed to desperately want Feldman to grab one of their life buoys, and come on board the USS Incorporation by Parts, which Feldman was having none of. It’s very difficult to argue an untenable position, but Feldman tried, I think largely unsuccessfully.
One final matter, I had disagreed with NRA-ILA’s Motion for Divided Argument in this case, and my disagreements were expressed more strongly in private correspondence than was indicated here publicly. Without meaning to detract any from Alan Gura’s performance and arguments, and also retaining hope that in the future there will be a stronger spirit of cooperation, respect and communication in any future cases we’re arguing, I was glad Paul Clement was up there, and I will freely admit here, and to the people I corresponded with, that I was wrong about many of my concerns. Overall, the strong performance on our side by both Alan Gura and Mr. Clement made a strong case for victory. I’m still going to keep my fingers crossed, and I suspect everyone reading this will as well, but I don’t think anyone has anything to feel glum about. I want to again thank everyone who was involved in this case, and who put it together, briefed, moot courted, and ultimately argued it. As I said before, we’re very fortunate to have such competent and talented advocates.
Correlation on Brady Rankings and Crime
I decided to run the Brady State Rankings through Excel, and see if there was any correlation to violent crime rates. The short answer, no. You can see the scatter chart here:

I’m no good at Excel charting, so what I did was plot the violent crime rate (per 100,000) for each state (y-axis) against its Brady Grade (x-axis). I’ve seen folks picking certain data from one side or another to support the assertion that Brady rank means higher violent crime. In truth, there’s no correlation. If you run the r-squared correlation on the two data sets, you get 0.0005, which is effectively uncorrelated. This shouldn’t make anyone at the Brady Campaign too excited, because while it would seem that passing gun control laws doesn’t make violent crime go up, it doesn’t make it go down either. There’s a much stronger correlation, for instance, between annual mean temperature of a state, and violent crime, which means global warming will surely kill us all.
UPDATE: It occurs to me that Justice Breyer seems to want a statistical based test for scrutiny for the Second Amendment. From the McDonald oral argument transcripts:
There are two ways. One is that — look at — all you have to do is look at the briefs. Look at the statistics. You know, one side says a million people killed by guns. Chicago says that their — their gun law has saved hundreds, including and they have statistics — including lots of women in domestic cases. And the other side disputes it. This is a highly statistical matter. Without incorporation, it’s decided by State legislatures; with, it’s decided by Federal judges.
I wonder how he would interpret this pretty damning data on the effectiveness of gun control laws.
Starbucks Continuing to Hold
Makes me wonder how loud they are going to have to say no before the gun control groups get it:
As the public debate continues, we are asking all interested parties to refrain from putting Starbucks or our partners into the middle of this divisive issue. As a company, we are extremely sensitive to the issue of gun violence in our society. Our Starbucks family knows all too well the dangers that exist when guns are used irresponsibly and illegally. Without minimizing this unfortunate reality, we believe that supporting local laws is the right way for us to ensure a safe environment for both partners and customers.
I agree. I should be clear we were not calling for any counter protest of Abby Spangler’s protests earlier. I was just asking people to patronize the local Starbucks, and perhaps express some sentiment that they don’t agree with the spectacle going on outside. No need to bring guns into it.
I don’t demand Starbucks take my side. I just want them to stay out. And staying out will earn our appreciation.
UPDATE: Sad, true, and funny.
Transcript for McDonald
Anyone looking for the transcript for McDonald v. Chicago can find it here. I would have linked this yesterday, but couldn’t stop one place long enough to look for it and link it. I only could work through the iPhone. I managed to get a paper copy yesterday thanks to Chris Cox, fortunately.
DRTV Interview on McDonald Coverage
I gave a call to Michael Bane of Outdoor Channel’s DownRange TV, and spoke with him for a bit about the McDonald case after everyone had come out and we were standing on the steps of the Supreme Court building. At first, I handed over my phone to Dave Hardy, then proceeded to talk to Michael myself. You can hear my interview here. Â Jim Shepherd, who we also saw outside on the steps, gave an interview here.
Looks like DRTV had some pretty good coverage of the case, along with Michael Bane’s blog.
McDonald in Pictures
I’m Uploading Here All My Pictures from the Event, with appropriate labels. Many of them you likely saw in Twitter if you were following my feed, but here they are for those of you who were not following along on Twitter. You can click on the pics to make them bigger, and to see my footnotes.
After the case, we headed to lunch with Sandy Froman and some of the folks from NRA’s General Counsel’s office. Headed over to NRA-ILA’s Federal Affairs office in DC after that just to be able to sit down for a few minutes. We got a chance to chat with Chris Cox and Rachel, our blogger Media Liaison. Then on to the reception where we spoke with some of the ISRA folks, some Calguns Foundation Folks, and Alan Gura.
We got a pretty wide array of gun rights opinion from many different parties. Everyone was very positive about the case, and was in high spirits. I think this was a great day for the Second Amendment, and I am thankful we have so many smart and dedicated practitioners out there fighting for it. Let us hope the outcome is as positive as our moods yesterday.
More McDonald Coverage Coming
In some ways, it was bad for the blog for both Bitter and I to go down, since it’s exceedingly difficult to cover events live with a blog. I’m sure others have better coverage than we do by this point. I noticed some commentary at Volokh here, here, and here. I have thoughts on McDonald I’ll be sharing today, but I have a good bit to get caught up with, and I’m still really drained. Yesterday was a long day, and despite getting up at 4AM, we didn’t get home until 1AM this morning.
I am very glad I went, however, and got to see at least five minutes of history being made before my eyes. I am glad I had the chance to meet with so many of the players in this herculean effort. I even introduced myself to the Brady folks, who were outside the event lining up media interviews for after the case was heard. Paul Helmke was very gracious, and we actually spent about 10 minutes talking with Peter Hamm, who was equally gracious. No reason not to be cordial with the other side, because there is always plenty of room for politics later. This is how our Republic functions, after all.















