Why Iowa Really Shouldn’t Matter

Jim Geraghty is on a roll this morning looking at the truth behind the Iowa caucus numbers and why they should be no more relevant than any other small state. I can understand the sentiment because I know many gun owners never felt like they had a say in the GOP nominating process in 2008 once some contenders dropped out after fairly early primary runs. With the ups and downs of various candidates in the last few weeks, it’s a shame Tim Pawlenty called it quits after a freakin’ straw poll.

Putting aside the quirkiness of Iowa, caucuses are an awful method for picking candidates for a variety of reasons — suddenly the secret ballot doesn’t matter anymore? — and high among them is low participation. The turnout at the 2008 Iowa GOP caucus: 119,000. Turnout at the 2000 caucus: 87,000. Turnout in 1996: About 96,000. Turnout in 1988: About 109,000.

Turnout has never surpassed 23 percent of all eligible Republicans, and even that low threshold was last met back in 1988. The GOP frontrunner is determined by a group roughly the size of the crowd at a University of Michigan football game. If the Iowa caucus turnout matches its 2008 level (though it could be higher), it will equal 16 percent of the average population of one congressional district.

At least in primaries, many more Republicans (and in open primaries, independents) get to weigh in. In 2008, 234,000 Republicans and independents voted in New Hampshire, and 445,000 Republicans and independents voted in South Carolina.

In his morning newsletter, he also notes that a certain segment of the few caucus-goers will make up their mind based on these last minute polls released showing candidates they like not doing so well or candidates they hate doing too well. This is particularly relevant as some may be responding to the perceived swell of Ron Paul support and flocking to Romney out of fear of a Paul win. That’s the same kind of motivation that drove some states to vote for Huckabee in 2008 – he was the only alternative to McCain at a certain point in the game. It didn’t mean those states actually like Huckabee, they just didn’t want to vote for McCain.

UPDATE: Someone questioned what an ideal map would look like for Geraghty, and he responds with a plan that sounds quite feasible. My only issue is that he left Oklahoma off the calendar.

Blaming the Victims

There’s a fine line between teaching someone to be smart to avoid being a victim and actually blaming them for the crimes committed. But it looks like Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has not only crossed that line, it’s not even visible in their rearview mirror anymore. They actually criminalize potential victimhood.

Meanwhile, police have issued several citations to people who left vehicles running and unattended in the city during the past week, police Chief Pierre Ritter said.

Motorists are not allowed to leave cars running in Harrisburg if they are not in them, even out front of homes to prevent vehicle theft, Ritter said. Drivers with cars left idling and unattended will receive $90 fines.

Get that? It’s a crime to leave your car in a manner in which it could be stolen by a criminal. You will be punished because someone else might come along and make you a victim.

By this logic, what is Harrisburg’s next big idea to cut down on car theft? Fining those who buy nice cars. If they wouldn’t drive nice cars, then criminals wouldn’t be tempted to take them.

The next big crime fighting law proposed by Chief Ritter will be to cut down on rape. If we follow his justification above, he plans on fining women with vaginas in order to prevent rape. We can’t have those women with vaginas tempting potential rapists.

Signs, Signs, Everywhere There’s Signs

The mayor of bankrupt Harrisburg, PA has unveiled a brand new gun crime fighting tool – signs. But not just any signs, signs with a phone number. It was announced with a press conference bragging about how these signs would convince people to turn in guns used in crimes.

The signs list a phone number people who want to turn guns in can call or anonymous tipsters can call to report illegal guns on the street and other related crimes to police, Mayor Linda Thompson said this afternoon during a weekly crime prevention press conference.

Of course, this program has the standard promise that police won’t ask questions when guns are turned in through her pet project.

I’m sure that will solve all of the crime in Harrisburg if we just put up more signs. Perhaps Philly can just put up lots of signs and solve their city problems.

What’s Missing from the Brady Candle Lighting Ceremony?

Besides candles, what’s missing from their “big” announcement of a candle-lighting ceremony? Joe Huffman caught it.

They list a number of locations where you can join in a “National Candlelight Vigil”. The interesting thing is they only list 28 locations in 15 states. There are no events in many of the cities and states where they claim to have chapters. This includes the supposed chapter in Arizona! This state in particular is significant because the event date, January 8th, was chosen as the anniversary of the Tucson, Arizona shooting in which Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) was severely wounded and six people were killed.

He includes the full list of Brady “chapters” who are not participating in their event, and you might be surprised at those who are sitting out. Delaware, the home “chapter” of Sarah Brady, is sitting this one out. Three-quarters of their chapters in New Jersey are planning on skipping this event. In the area surrounding their headquarters, the Maryland chapter and three of the four Virginia chapters are passing on the big day. Their chapter in Wisconsin must be demoralized after losing on concealed carry since they are also shying away from the event. There are more, those are just the highlights.

Politicians are the Same Everywhere

In the wake of random tragedy, is to suggest there’s probably some new law that wouldn’t have prevented a damned thing, but will nonetheless sound good to those weak souls who demand that the government do something. We have plenty of these worms here in America, but I think the only difference is we’re a bit, and sadly only a bit, more willing to say publicly, for all to see, they are worms, and should be ignored. But maybe only a bit is enough to at least slow the advance of the lowest common denominator.

The H1B: Our Modern World’s Indentured Servitude

I’ve always thought, when it comes to the highly skilled, our immigration laws poorly serve the country. If someone has in demand skills, we should be doling green cards out to them like candy. Instead, what we have is a modern day equivalent of the indentured servant, known as the H1B Visa program.

For those of you not in the tech industry, H1B is basically where a company sponsors an immigrant to be in the country for a specific job. If that person loses that job, they are out of the country, essentially. They have to find another company willing to “sponsor” them if they want to stay, and within a fairly short amount of time, or face deportation.

This is essentially a license for the sponsoring company to mistreat employees, knowing the only other place they can turn is other companies willing to sponsor an H1B. It is a modern day indentured servitude, and we should be appalled as a country our immigration laws are allowing this. If someone has skills that could contribute to the economy, they should be a given a green card and thrown into the labor pool to compete along with the rest of us. If they choose to go back to their own country because they can’t cut it, that’s their business. But if they can succeed in America, we should welcome and embrace that.

So why does the H1B program persist? Because a lot of large corporations like crony capitalism. They like being able to bring skilled labor in from other countries, mistreat them, pay them poorly, and know they don’t have too may other options. Personally, I’d rather compete against these folks on a level playing ground. There are many brilliant H1B workers who deserve to find a permanent place in this country, and we’re doing them a horrible disservice by continuing this program.

The Importance of Women

When the Ballon Goes Up speaks of the importance of women in the gun culture. While I have no real evidence to back my hunch up, if I had to put my finger on the cultural phenomena that’s driving the normalization of gun ownership, it’s the fact that women are, more and more, beginning to understand its importance. This is not surprising given that in modern culture, women are delaying marriage and family, and living on their own in greater numbers.

Candlelight Vigils without the Candles

I swear, the Brady Campaign “big announcement” candlelight vigil actually falls into the category of sad the more you look into it. People have been joking about how they are advocating use of an item that’s actually pretty dangerous.

I noticed that several of their events in Pennsylvania, Texas, and California demand that you leave your candles at home when attending the candlelight vigil. Instead, it is mandatory that you only use flameless candles. For the California event with the restriction, the mandate is for LED lights only.

There is nothing they won’t try to control in your life – even your use of a candle at a candlelight vigil.