Gerlach Out, Then in, Then Out, Then In

Rep. Jim Gerlach announced last year that he would give up the 6th district Congressional seat to run for something. First it was going to be challenging Pat Toomey for the Senate nomination. Then it wasn’t. Next, Gerlach announced he’d run for Governor and challenge Attorney General Tom Corbett for the GOP nomination. Yesterday, he changed his mind about that, too.

This morning, John Micek gave hints that there may have been an important timing factor beyond just the low fundraising numbers (he raised only $1 million, not enough to run a statewide campaign):

Gerlach’s exit came just about 48 hours before central Pennsylvania Republicans are to meet in Harrisburg for a regional endorsement meeting. Corbett locked up the endorsement of his home turf southwestern caucus earlier in the week.

These regional meetings are usually the first tests of a campaign’s mettle in advance of the party endorsement meetings in February.

Technically, State Rep. Sam Rohrer is still in the race. He’s considered the underdog, especially against a man who has already won statewide office even in a very anti-Republican year. (Also, I’ve already mentioned that there’s not much historical precedent to making the leap from State Representative to Governor in Pennsylvania.) If he isn’t pulling off one hell of a surprise in advance of party meetings, then hopefully he’ll shift back to local campaign mode soon. We can’t afford to take losses at the State House.

Going back to Gerlach, he is expected to announce within the hour that he’s no longer giving up his Congressional seat. I can’t imagine that this will go over well with rising Republicans who already stepped up and put together campaigns to make sure his seat didn’t go to Democrats. Hopefully, Gerlach has plans to make up for his indecision of the last year.

More on INTERPOL Executive Order

We previously covered the Executive Order President Obama signed giving INTERPOL more freedom of operation in the US. It would appear there was a lot of bad information in initial reports. Howard Nemerov does a pretty thorough job of explaining why it’s not such a big deal.

The Growing Influence of Former Massachusetts Residents

NRA-ILA is reporting that New Hampshire is considering adding a whole lot of places you can’t carry. It’s been a long time since any state proposed restricting concealed carry. I’m thinking that the Democrats aren’t going to last long in the Granite State. New Hampshire is about as gun friendly as it gets.

By Bloomberg’s Grace

Now that new media has freed MAIG’s Blueprint for Screwing Gun Owners, his eminence the Mayor has decided to grace the public with the document, according to the Brooklyn Eagle:

The report, entitled Blueprint for Federal Action on Illegal Guns, was sent to President Obama and key members of his administration last August and is being publicly released in the New Year.

How nice of him. I guess since we already made it public, he can pretend like transparency was his plan all along. It’s amazing how much these worms argue for things like openness and transparency out of one side of their mouths, then conspire in secret when it suits them. At least until someone flips on the light switch and the cockroaches scatter.

Split Decision: NRA’s Likely Concern in McDonald

While I’ve been busy with work related items, it’s gotten around that NRA is filing to get some time during the oral arguments of McDonald, effectively splitting Alan Gura’s time before the Court. I’m not meaning to take sides in this, because while I understand NRA’s concern, I’m also willing to give Gura the benefit of doubt in how to argue his case. What I would like to do is explain the issues here as best I can, and try to convey what each side is trying to achieve, and why this might cause some conflict. The Supreme Court’s grant of Certiorari (cert for short) in the McDonald case goes like this:

Whether the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms is incorporated as against the States by the Fourteenth Amendment’s Privileges or Immunities or Due Process Clauses.

That’s a strong indication that the Supreme Court would like to see arguments for both Due Process Clause incorporation and P or I incorporation briefed in this case, and that ground is indeed covered in the Petitioners brief, NRA’s brief and other amicus briefs. By this point, it’s pretty clear that Alan Gura has set out on a path to get the Second Amendment incorporated (properly, in my opinion) under the Privileges or Immunities Clause, and NRA favors the more conservative and less risky incorporation under the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

One can probably get to a motivation for favoring each method by thinking carefully about each party. It would seem Alan Gura came to the gun issue through a generally libertarian legal philosophy, much the same way many of us did. Having already won a landmark case before the Court on one libertarian issue, his place in legal history is assured. But winning a case that overturns Slaughterhouse would make him a legend in legal history. Hell, even just overturning Cruikshank, and bringing that part of the 14th Amendment back to life would be a hell of an accomplishment. Having come to the issue myself through a strongly libertarian bent I loved the Petitioner’s Brief in McDonald. The opportunity to bring the Privileges or Immunities clause back to life is right now, if it’ll ever happen. For someone who loves our Constitution and liberty, this can’t be passed up. I can’t blame Gura for taking the chance. I probably would too in his position, and if he prevails, our Republic will be better for it.

NRA, institutionally, is a lot more conservative, because their only concern is the preservation of Second Amendment rights. Ancillary libertarian concerns aren’t on their mind institutionally. While there might be (well, are, I can tell you) individuals in NRA who are sympathetic to the idea of restoring P or I and overturning Slaughterhouse, NRA as an institution is only concerned with getting a clean and firm ruling on incorporation, and is definitely wary of sacrificing incorporation on the altar of Privileges or Immunities restoration. They are probably concerned that the justices have a chance to hear more about incorporating the Second Amendment under the due process clause like we do with other constitutional rights.

So what’s the real risk? Who the hell cares how it’s incorporated, as long as it’s incorporated, right? I suspect what NRA is looking to avoid is a judicial train wreck of a ruling, where you get something like three justices voting on incorporation through Privileges or Immunities, three justices voting on incorporation through Due Process, and three voting on no incorporation because they think Heller was wrong, and the Second Amendment isn’t any real fundamental right that need be incorporated against the states. In a hypothetical ruling like that, you have no clear majority opinion, so the Marks rule is used:

The Marks Rule has raised the following schools of thought regarding the appropriate basis for determining the holding in such fractured cases: (a) the narrowest analysis essential to the result derived from a combination of all concurring opinions; (b) the concurring opinion offering the narrowest rationale; or (c) only those parts of the concurring opinions which overlap and arrive at the same result. For example, if one follows the first interpretation, then the holding in the case should be viewed as the narrowest rationale supported by all of the concurring opinions read together as though it were a single majority opinion, and where there is a conflict, the opinion based on the narrowest ground governs.

You can see how it might complicate things in moving forward on Second Amendment rights in the future, if we were to get McDonald in a plurality opinion. This would seem especially true since Marks may not quite cleanly apply. Is P or I more “narrow” than Due Process? NRA would presumably like to avoid the potential for this, and just have a clean ruling following the same legal reasoning as other Constitutional rights. They are going to, therefore, be concerned the justices aren’t able to hear enough oral argument along those lines.

Not that I believe Alan Gura is being reckless or daredevil in the way he’s decided to argue his case. The Supreme Court asked for this, really. What reason they have is not really something we can know, but they did. I can’t believe they would have granted cert the way they did if they weren’t interested exploring both options. I also still strongly believe that we will have incorporation at the end of the day. I sincerely hope we can have incorporation by Alan Gura succeeding in overturning Slaughterhouse and/or Cruikshank, but I’ll take it any way I can get it. Still, I think NRA has a valid concern in wanting time. Presumably if they are granted time, it’ll be Stephen Halbrook before the Court. I think either way this goes, our rights are in very good hands. We are fortunate to have competent and highly talented people working this issue on our behalf before the Court.

Virginia Looking to Abolish Gun Rationing

It’ll be a fight, for sure, but the Virginia legislature looks more pro-gun than it did, and they have a pro-gun Governor in Bob McDonnell:

Del. Scott Lingamfelter, R-Woodbridge, is proposing to do away with the Gov. Doug Wilder-era policy that limits a person to buying a single gun a month, arguing the rule “has run its course.”

“I don’t think it’s been a very effective policy,” Lingamfelter said. “It hasn’t done much to prevent crime; it has done a lot to affect commerce.”

All the changes look good though, but Virginia will be the second state to repeal gun rationing because it doesn’t work (the other is South Carolina). Before the one-gun-a-month law, gun control advocates bitched about Virginia being a prime source of crime guns. After one-gun-a-month, they are still bitching. It doesn’t work. It’s time for the law to go.

Editorial Favoring Concealed Carry Reform in Iowa

Surprising that the Des Moines Register is willing to run a pro-right-to-carry op-ed, in this case by the Iowa Sportsmen’s Federation Executive Director Craig Swartz. Sounds like they are running a good media operation for getting this timely editorial placed in the state’s major paper. Good on them.

Scalia Defends His Position

Looks like he did so at a speech for the Mississippi College School of Law. Sadly they don’t go much into what he said about the Second Amendment, but they do cover Scalia’s warnings about appeal to international law. I have to agree with this part too:

Scalia also said that he was worried by a mounting trend of appointing career judges to the judiciary. Scalia, 73, is a former appeals court judge, but he had also worked in private practice, as a law professor and in the administration of President Gerald Ford before Ronald Reagan nominated him to the Supreme Court in 1982.

“Every aspect of your career broadens your outlook and the insights that you would have. It’s good for the Court to have people with varied backgrounds. One of the things I’m concerned about is that in recent years, nobody who has been appointed has come from another bench,” Scalia said. […]

[…] Calling European judges “the most blinkered bureaucrats,” Scalia said that career judges in European systems can develop a sympathy for the government’s side of a case, having worked for the government their entire professional lives.

“You contrast that with the Anglo-Saxon system, where in the most important courts the judges not only have not been spending their whole life with their snout in the public trough, they’ve been suing the government,” Scalia said. “They’ve been defending their clients against the government. (It’s) a different mind, a different mindset.”

I would love to have someone on the bench who’s built a career out of suing the government. Maybe someday a future president can put Alan Gura on the Court :)

Blogoversary

Man, has it really been 3 years? Though, it seems like a long way from where I started out. I wouldn’t have remembered if it wasn’t for the notice that my domain was about to expire. That was even before I met Bitter. I think my motivations for blogging back then were different, and I think this blog has certainly evolved a lot since the beginning.

In the beginning I started to blog just because I had something to say, and Bitter (who I had just started talking to) said I’d be good at it. So I figured I’d try to impress her. Originally I wasn’t much concerned with having my own voice, or writing style, if you will. I wasn’t much concerned with how my blog would fit in with the community. I was interested in attracting the attention of the larger blogs, and getting them to help me grow an audience with links, and I owe a tremendous amount of my success as a gun blog to SayUncle, Instapundit, Tam, Dave Hardy and Bitter (back when she was gun blogging over there instead of here).

After blogging for a while, you kind of get a sense where you fit in to the community, and what your strengths and weaknesses are as a blogger. I think I’ve developed Snowflakes In Hell to the point where it’s a reasonable source of political and legal analysis focused specifically on firearms policy and law, with a bit of a local focus on Pennsylvania issues in particular. This has brought me deeper into this issue than I ever really wanted, or imagined I’d be starting out.

But I also think I’ve made some mistakes in the past three years. A scrappy, confrontational style of debate probably helped me get noticed as an upstart blog, but I don’t think it’s always been an asset as a more established blog. I know I’ve rubbed more than a few people the wrong way when that was not really my intention. I’m also frustrated by how difficult it is to use blogs and forums to coordinate and promote local, targeted, grassroots activism. There are people out there who use new media effectively for this purpose, and it’s something we’ve been experimenting with, and trying to learn what works and what doesn’t. Despite my skepticism of Open Carry as a public relations tool, those guys have a winning formula when it comes to recruiting, keeping and mobilizing a dedicated core set of volunteers. While I’ve often been critical of their methods, I greatly admire what they’ve been able to accomplish in creating an issue identity, and building dedication to it. The Tea Party movement is another phenomena that’s cropped up, which is a great example of a core set of activists being able to mobilize large numbers of people. Something I’ll be thinking in year four of Snowflakes in Hell is how to take the strengths of these movements, and apply them in other contexts. See what works, and what doesn’t. 2010 will be a telling year for freedom advocates, and for gun rights. Let’s hope we’re celebrating after November.