Why Did Houston’s Proposition One Lose?

vote-here-woman-1436537This might seem like an off-topic post, given that Prop 1 was an anti-discrimination proposition for LGBT community, and not anything gun related, but I think it’s useful to analyze political failure and decide what lessons might be drawn from it for use in other contexts. First, I should introduce Proposition 1:

Proposition 1, would have banned discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity—criteria not covered by federal anti-discrimination laws—especially “in city employment, city services, city contracting practices, housing, public accommodations, and private employment.”

The proposition failed 39% to 61%, much to the shock of supporters. It’s failure is not a shock to me, once you break it apart and look at it. In my opinion, the failure boils down to three things. Demographics, timing, and overreach.

Let’s start with demographics. The City of Houston is about 25% white, 6% Asian, 25% Black, and 44% hispanic. The city is overwhelmingly Democratic, but supporters failed to recognize that many white Republicans are farther along to agreeing with them on these issues than black and hispanic voters. Demographically, Prop 1 faced an uphill challenge right out of the gate. Urban black and hispanic voters may vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but on social issues like this they are about as supportive as your most bible thumping evangelical GOP voter, and probably even less so in many respects.

Move on to timing. It’s really only a small minoring of people who are comfortable with rapid change. Activists can often delude themselves into thinking how strongly the population really supports their cause. There is a tendency to push too fast, and that risks a backlash. This referendum comes fresh on the heels of the cake controversies, where public opinion lags far behind support for gay marriage. The fact that Prop 1 had carve out for religious organizations and non-profits won’t really matter. There’s a tendency for the public to apply the brakes when they think activists for change are pushing too fast.

One could argue timing is really just a form of overreach, but I wanted to treat it separately. Gun rights has achieved because we were determined to not be a flash in the pan movement. We have persisted for several generations now in pushing this issue forward, often sliding backwards for periods of time; not able to achieve everything we’ve wanted. Timing is an important part of moving forward, independently of overreach.

Which brings us to overreach itself. If activists had only included sexual orientation in Proposition 1, it probably would have done much better, and perhaps even won. At this point, gays have achieved widespread tolerance and acceptance in our society. They achieved that through decades of coming out of the closet and confronting society with their existence and normality. It’s easy to discriminate against people when they are “shady deviants” (those people) who go to special clubs and bars (those places) and do “God knows what.” It’s much harder when they are family, friends, coworkers and neighbors who are mostly normal people.

Sound familiar? It should, because we have built the pro-gun movement in the same manner. How much do you think we’ve achieved in the past 20 years in demystifying gun shows? You notice how many families come these days? That’s a reward for decades of cultural normalization.

Transgender people are currently where gays were a few decades ago. While public polling shows that most people don’t have a problem with the transgendered (the public is about equally divided), I think it’s safe to say most people are still a bit uncomfortable with it. Without diving into the debate about whether this is right or not, how many companies do you think would feel comfortable putting an obvious transwoman in a public facing customer service or sales position. Now change that to a visibly butch lesbian woman, and I think you’d agree there’d be a lot more acceptance.

To put this in a Second Amendment context, transgenderism to them is what machine guns are to us. Most activists in this issue would like to ease or end the 1986 ban on machine guns, and most would also like to end NFA treatment of them as well. This is a sound anti-discrimination principle! But it’s one that just isn’t ripe yet. It may never be, even with a strong effort to demystify and mainstream.

The LGBT community enforces a conformity that would make the most rabid 2nd Amendment activist blush. We also have our own “no one gets thrown off the lifeboat” principle, but in fact we are willing to throw people off the lifeboat in order to save the ship. We’ve done it. Notice that all of the DC preemption bills floated in Congress don’t cover NFA items. Neither do any of the national reciprocity proposals. It would also be doubtful that if we managed to pass a federal law preempting state and local bans on semi-automatic “assault weapons” that the bill would not also carve out NFA items. As firearms enthusiasts, we’ve been more realistic about what can be achieved and when it the right time to achieve it. The failure of Proposition 1 is a lesson in what happens when reality is ignored and deluded activists turn a generational struggle to an immediate all or nothing game.

Did Gun Control Cost the Dems Gains in Virginia?

Now even the Democrats are asking the question:

“The gun thing, I would have done it differently,” Sen. Chap Petersen (D-Fairfax) said. “It’s speculation at this point, but I feel the Gecker seat was one we thought we were going to win. . . . [The gun issue] was one variable that was thrown in at the last minute.”

How long before the Democrats start telling Bloomberg, “Thanks, but no thanks.” I’m honestly not sure why the calculus changed for the Dems. Up until about 2010 gun control was considered political suicide even across the aisle, unless you were in a safely Democratic urban district. The Dems of a decade ago successfully used the blue dog strategy to get back to a majority in Congress. Then in 2010, they flushed the blue dog strategy down the toilet in order to get enough votes to pass Obamacare without a single Republican vote. Obama won re-election, but he spent most of his first term not really playing up the gun issue. After Sandy Hook, the Democrats convinced themselves everything had changed. But polling shows pretty clearly it hasn’t. So what makes them so sure it’s a winner now?

I believe the Democrats are pursuing gun control because it’s what the donor class wants, and when you dangle the fish in front of the seal, you can expect the seal to bark to get the fish. Bloomberg has a lot of fish, and Obama, who is now very enthusiastic about gun control, is going to command a lot of big donors for many years to come. That will go double if Hillary Clinton loses in 2016. The barking seals will follow the follow the people with the most fish.

Bloomberg’s Result

Enjoy the schadenfreude while it lasts. I’m not sure who deserves credit for this, but whoever came up with this, bravo:

bloomberg-virginia

I first saw it on Miguel’s site. Of course, it’s pretty apparent Everytown and Bloomberg were gunning for the 10th district, but hedged their bets by doubling down on a safe race, so they could claim victory if they lost the important race. Hey, they spent more money in it anyway. Here’s how it went this morning:

Followed up quickly by NRA’s response:

That seat was held by the Democrats already, and the retiring incumbent was D rated by the NRA. If NRA had spent that kind of money to hold a safe seat in a single state senate race, I would have called them out for spending irresponsibility if it was not a key race, or they had some reason to fear. The fact is, when you look at that district, it should be a cakewalk for the Democrats.

Pennsylvania Elections: Where’s the T?

The Dems swept the statewide races, which isn’t too surprising given they seemed to be the only people spending money. They managed to drive turnout in Philadelphia, while turnout in the “T” part of Pennsylvania was very light. Are they still sore about the whole Penn State thing? Has the Pennsylvania GOP started sucking worse than usual? For whatever the PAGOP is worth (which probably isn’t much), this is a problem they should be very interested in diagnosing, because without very strong turnout from that section of the state, there aren’t enough votes to overcome Philadelphia and Pittsburg, and the unions spent big on this race. It will likely be a good investment for them, because they can now have a very big say in the 2020 redistricting. The Republicans should have spent more in this election, and if they didn’t have the money to spend they should start asking themselves how they can manage to suck so bad that no one wants to give them money. But of course they never ask that. It’s business as usual. Strategy? What’s that?

The only thing you have to hope for is that union backed Dem justices aren’t going to toe the Dem line on gun control, for fear of being eaten alive by their members.

The GOP managed to increase their majority in the Senate by one vote by winning the special election. Generally speaking the GOP did pretty well in the Philadelphia suburbs in County elections.

Hey Bloomberg, What’s That Giant Flushing Sound?

Oh yeah, it’s the sound of $700,000 of Bloomberg’s money circling the bowl. Let us hope by tomorrow the flush will be complete. Ideally what we want is for Democrats to think Bloomberg’s help is poison. At the least, to think that his money won’t help. Imagine if he had spent that money on malaria drugs for kids in poor countries instead of spending it to screw fellow Americans out of their Constitutional birthright.

Cops vs. Criminals

In New Haven, the mayor is saying great things about a plan by police to steal personal items from people’s closed cars that they can turn around and sell for profit after 60 days. The police claim that this is done in the best interest of the car owners, as it prevents a thief from stealing it and taking it to the pawn shop for a profit.

And this is why local elections matter.

Get Thy Butt to the Polls

Pennsylvanians, Virginians, and New Jerseyans especially. This is your chance to get some small measure of revenge on Bloomberg. If the elections today go well for us, it will be a big defeat for Bloomberg, and if they don’t, Bloomberg will use all that money he spent and the results to try to intimidate other politicians to do what he wants. It could be your state senate district next.

So get out there. What are you waiting for? Well, if you’re like me to be done with work, but don’t forget.

Weekly Gun News – Edition 18

This weekend I managed to get shooting again. I’m slowly getting back into IHMSA competition. At this point we’re the last club standing in Pennsylvania that’s still running matches. Handgun metallic silhouette is a tough discipline. The closest target for small bore (which is what I mostly shoot) is chickens at 25 yards, and about the size post card. Pigs are at 50yd, Turkeys 75yds, and Rams at 100yds. I shoot standing, so I started back getting only 17 out of 40. Then 21 out of 40. This match our Mule ran out of gas and had to be pushed back from the 100 yard line, which got my heart rate up, so I bombed a few ranks of animals after that. Back to 17 this match. Maybe December will be better. But enough about that, now for the news:

There was no news from the Supreme Court as to whether they’ll grant cert in the Highland Park Assault Weapons Ban case. My prediction is that they will not take the case.

John Richardson takes a look at a recent 60 Minutes segment on smart guns.

Virginia Elections: Great kid, but don’t get cocky. The other side is feeling pretty jazzed too, and they have reason to be with Bloomberg dumping millions into these races. The right people have to turn out in the right places for all this to work for us, so be sure to turn out if you live in Virginia.

Lies about guns and children. Sometimes I wish they’d come up with new arguments so I’d have something different to talk about. I keep reading how rejuvenated the gun control movement is, but I’m not seeing new or novel arguments. It’s the same bullshit they’ve been trying to fool everyone with for decades.

You don’t say: Gun owners don’t always fit the stereotypes.

SayUncle: “I pondered if [the Dems going full gun control] was because big money guys like Bloomberg had them convinced it was a popular thing or they were just whoring for the money.” I think it’s a combination of the two. Obama convinced them it was popular, and Bloomberg is promising to spend big.

Gun headline of the week: “Prosecutor Who Went After Student For NRA Shirt Pulls Gun Over Fake Spiders.

Suing to protect the gun rights of the Amish.

Media bias: reporting mass shootings when there was no mass shooting.

I think it’s fair to say one would be a fool to take self-defense advise from the New York Times, especially when they get offer VPC’s Googling the title of legitimate research. Fortunately, the public doesn’t seem to be listening.

Joe Huffman has some interesting observations about new media, “The online world has returned to the day of yellow journalism of 100 years ago.” I’ve been thinking this for a while now. Read the whole thing.

NRA still enjoys majority support in the US.

The real problem our opposition has is that shooting is a fun and safe activity.

Apparently male domestic violence victims are shockingly high. Probably also very underreported.

Dave Kopel has even more follow up on the 2nd Circuit’s awful decision upholding most of the SAFE Act.

Also from Dave Kopel: English legal history and the right to carry arms.

The Center for American Progress is joining Bloomberg to attempt to turn Virginia into an anti-gun state, like neighboring Maryland. Baltimore must surely be a crime-free paradise!

The Democrats are working hard to ensure that they can shut down all gun sales by taking NICS offline. In this day in age, if the FBI can’t complete a background check in 72 hours, that’s not the fault of our community, that’s incompetence on the part of the NICS examiners.

There was a threat of Loyalsock Township passing a gun ordinance, but fortunately, it looks like they decided to let it die. A lot of times all it takes is grabbing a few friends and showing up. Local government aren’t used to actual participation, except for the people who show up every week to complain about something or other.

Joshua Prince and Allen Thompson: The Inalienable Right to Stand Your Ground.

Also from Josh Prince: It’s legal to carry a firearm while voting in Pennsylvania. My polling place is an elementary school, which is a legal grey area in Pennsylvania. I would not advise carrying if your polling place is a school.

Looks like the Dems are trying an old trick that stands little chance of working: making demands on government arms suppliers to implement gun control. Any handgun maker who cuts a deal with Chuck Schumer will be out of business in a year. That’s a promise.

Derp sells, part MCMXVII.

A pretty balanced article about Maine’s new suppressor hunting law.

Obama and Hillary both praise confiscation schemes of other countries, then drone on about how we might want to try it here, and there are still people with their heads in the sand about the real end goal in all this.

 

Pennsylvanians: Don’t Forget Tomorrow’s Elections

NRA has endorsed candidates in the off-year elections tomorrow, November 3rd. It is very important for every gun voter to show up this year. PVF’s web site looks like it’s finally correct, and has all the endorsed candidates. FOAC also has their slate of candidates up, with some further local races you might want to pay attention to. We elect judges in Pennsylvania, and that’s mostly what this election is about. The Supreme Court plays a big role in drawing of districts, and realize that if the Dems manage to take full control of this state in their current “wild-eyed leftist and loving them some gun control” incarnation, your gun rights will be finished. This is no exaggeration. The important statewide candidates:

Supreme Court

  • Anne Covey (R)
  • Michael George (R)
  • Judith Olson (R)

Superior Court

  • Emil Giordano (R)

Commonwealth Court

  • Paul Lalley (R)

Also, if you live in State Senate District 37, which comprises parts of Allegheny and Washington counties, you have a special election tomorrow where Guy Reschenthaler (R) is the NRA and FOAC endorsed candidate.