Democrats are probably crying in their coffee this morning with reports that a legit poll has Brown up by 4. That is within the margin of error, so it’s no assured victory. However, Geraghty notes that the numbers look right for a reasonable sample. At this point, it’s purely turnout.
Granted, lack of turnout by Republicans helped turn a red seat blue this week in Virginia – for gun owners, sent an A+ rated seat into the hands of an F rated candidate. The direct result of the election appears to be a shakeup on a key committee that may mean pro-gun reforms are stalled until the next election. No one can afford to be cocky.
In other news, it looks like the Massachusetts race has Charlie Cook re-examining a lot of other Democratic races perceived to be safe in 2010. Our own, PA-8, was just flipped from “Safe Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” We’ve got until November to swing that to “Toss Up” and the Massachusetts Senate seat made the transition from “Solid Democratic” to “Toss Up” in just 8 days.