Looks like Blue Trail Range was ready to reopen, but the state decided they needed more time. They’ve had some ballistic expert help, it looks like:
“Vargas concludes, based on his study of the elevations and theoretical bullet trajectories over the mountain, that it is beyond improbable — and actually implausible — that bullets that have hit residences on the eastern side of Tri-Mountain originate from Blue Trail Range,†she said.
…
State police ballistics experts have also been involved in the investigation of the origin of bullets found in the park as well as shots that have hit homes in Durham that are almost 1.5 miles from the range. The range is on the western side of Fowler Mountain, while the homes that were struck by bullets are on the eastern side.
Clark Vargas, president of C. Vargas & Associates, said the only way that a bullet fired from Blue Trail could have hit homes in Durham were if someone used a specialized shooting technique known as plunging angle fire.
I did my own analysis here, which concluded that fire from the 200 yard range could hit houses on the other side, but I am not an expert, nor did I visit the site. I’ll take the word of the experts on this one.
UPDATE: Looks like the actual house, that was allegedly hit, is marked now in Google Earth. Rerunning my ballistic calculations, I agree that there’s almost no chance that a bullet fired from that range managed to impact that house. It’s well within the ballistic shadow of the mountain.
UPDATE: They are holding a sporting clays fundraiser this Sunday to help save the range.