I was talking to a friend who was lamenting the Senate race in Massachusetts, where the guy running against Kerry just didn’t seem all that impressive. It’s a real problem in states that have one party rule, since that tends to destroy both parties. It destroys the party in power, because they no longer feel the need to please their constituents. It destroys the opposition party, because no one worth their salt wants to run a campaign that’s guaranteed to lose.
Looking at the Massachusetts race from a gun point of view, John Kerry retains his F rating and Jeff Beatty carries an A grade, but no endorsement. At the ANJRPC annual meeting a few weekends ago, we were addressed by a Republican candidate for Congress in New Jersey, Roland Straten. When I say addressed, I actually mean yelled at. This guy got up, and told us how mad he was at NRA and ANJRPC for not grading or endorsing him. I don’t mean calmly and rationally either, you could actually tell he was visibly angry. Well, it turns out that he has a grade from NRA. I would suggest that if the best the New Jersey GOP can offer is someone who tries to get your support by yelling at you, that probably says a lot about why he’s not endorsed.
But NRA typically will not endorse a candidate unless their endorsement will actually help the candidate win. There’s no way Massachusetts is electing a Republican to the Senate this year. It’s just not going to happen, no matter who endorses him. Roland Straten is also a sacrificial lamb. Looking at his district, it’s most decidedly an uphill battle for any Republican, even ones who don’t have anger management issues. But NRA doesn’t endorse in these races because the endorsement won’t help, and because it would reduce their endorsement win percentage.
All political organizations that issue endorsements are concerned about keeping the value of their endorsements high. If you consistently endorse candidates who are lost causes, the number of elections you successfully swings drops, and along with that so does the value of your endorsement. NRA’s endorsement win percentage is high for an issue organization. In the 2004 election, it was 96%. The 2006 election was rough, which dropped it to 86%. Studies have shown that NRA’s endorsement is worth anywhere from 3 to 6 percentage points in an election, depending on the number of NRA members residing in the district. There’s not much to be gained, either by the candidate, or by NRA, in endorsing a challenger who’s not even close.