Year: 2012

That Pennsylvania is a battleground state is a myth. I’ve heard this since 2004, and while 2004 was close, it hasn’t been close since. McCain spent a lot of time and effort on Pennsylvania, only to get clobbered. I doubt you’ll see Pennsylvania go red in a Presidential election again, at least for the foreseeable future. So it’s probably good to see Mitt not taking the bait and fighting for Pennsylvania. There are other states that will swing this election, and it’s not going to be us. Sorry Ohio, you’re going to get it twice as hard this year.

The trend I think is based on two factors. One, Clinton took a lot of the fiscal and economic issues that made the suburbs generally Republican off the table, and fought culture wars instead. George W. Bush just continued that trend. So the ring counties around Philadelphia are a lot more Democratic than they were in a decade ago. The rest of the state has portions which have a very long tradition of voting Democratic, even though their values don’t likely align with the far-left agenda of the Democratic Party. But voting habits are hard to change. With the suburbs shifting, if PA is to ever to go red again, the parts of the state that are not Philadelphia are going to have to vote more like Tennessee than West Virginia. There are signs that’s starting to happen, but while that’s happening, the Philadelphia area is growing while the rest of the state depopulates, and it is becoming more blue. The Republicans are going to have to figure out how to survive here, in the suburbs, if they want a shot at Pennsylvania again.

The non-prime-time part of the DNC, the part the major networks don’t air, was horrid. Any time your convention boos God, it’s time to think long and hard about the constituency you’re cultivating. No matter whether one is an atheist or a believer, any follower of politics knows that booing God is a losing proposition among the electorate. The Democrats made a highly damaging mistake of taking an internal squabble among their factions, and dragging it out into the public light for all to see. As ironic as it might be for a blog, who often highlights internal squabbles among People of Gun, I’ll still say it’s a losing strategy. The GOP, and more importantly their related PACs, now has the DNC booing God on camera. Way to go!

It was all pretty much horrid until Clinton came up, and showed why he’s still the person most fit to lead the Democratic Party. Hell, even I felt a little nostalgia. Those were good times. I was just starting out in my career, and since it was the dot com boom, companies were just throwing cash at anyone who could spell UNIX. Additionally, if it wasn’t for Bill Clinton, I might have never been outraged enough to buy a gun, and you might not be reading this blog right now. Since I met Bitter through this issue, you could say Bill Clinton brought us together.

But the nostalgia didn’t last as long as Clinton’s speech. Not nearly as long. He was clearly enjoying himself, stomping on the nighttime news broadcasts, so folks turning in for local news would see ol’ Bill, I can’t believe wasn’t intentional. The Republicans are probably lucky he overstayed his welcome, and laid it on a bit thick. People think of Clinton as the great moderate — the man who out republicaned the Republicans — but Clinton governed as a lefty for the first two terms of his Administration, and caused a backlash enough to lose Congress. It was the Clinton who got soundly beat in 1994 that we saw last night, and for far too long.

Last night a lot of GOP folks were lambasting the Dems for not being able to let go of the Kennedys, making fun of the Kennedy tribute video. I have two words for you: Ronald Reagan. It is best for those who live in glass houses not to throw stones. Though, to be fair, I’m pretty sure Reagan never drowned a woman in a drunk driving escapade. Some folks on Twitter, however, got the real problem here. This was my favorite comment, “The DNC cares about women, that can swim.”

From the Inbox, this morning, Jim Geraghty’s Morning Jolt:

It does feel like there’s now a paint-by-numbers formula for giving a speech that garners media raves: My parents/grandparents/great-uncle Iggy came from humble beginnings. They struggled to give me a better life. Here is my focus-group-tested anecdote of my childhood. From this humorous event, my elderly, or preferably deceased relative/mentor figure, who will be played by Morgan Freeman in the movie, told me this valuable lesson: Only in America can you find opportunities like this. Only in America can you find opportunities like the ones I, and millions of other Americans, enjoyed! These opportunities are endangered by the policies of our opponent. But they are strengthened by the policies of our nominee! And I will not give up upon this majestic dream of a better future that is America! I will not give up and neither will you! We will do this together! Si se puede! Thank you! God bless America!

From what polls have been showing, the partisans are already lined up for this November, and that includes the people who call themselves independents, but generally lean one way or another. The rest is aimed at reaching the low-information voters who are still undecided. In fact, the election will hinge on how the people who barely pay attention fall.

And people wonder, and often lament, why our founding fathers had a healthy distrust of democracy, and did their level best to check it.