I Do Not Think This Poll Means What You Think it Means

Paul Helmke is busy trying to deride the NRA’s influence in national elections:

79% of all voters say the views of the NRA were not important to their vote for President; 78% of “New Blue” state respondents agreed; 74% of gun owning voters agreed.

Well, you see, that means that 21% of voters say that the views of the NRA are important.  Can you name me one other interest group that can lay claim to influencing 27 million voters in an election?  Have the Brady Campaign conducted a poll to see what percentage of the electorate consider their views important?  If they started wrapping their heads around that inconvenient fact, they’d start to understand why Barack Obama felt the need to convince everyone how much he respected the Second Amendment.

Georgia Senate Race

There’s going ot be a runoff election on December 2nd in Georgia to determine who’s going to be the winner of the Senate seat there.  The incumbent is Republican Saxby Chambliss.  The NRA is backing him in this election.  Personally, I don’t care what Jim Martin’s stance on guns is at this point — his party is anti-gun, and if we don’t preserve a filibuster for the Republicans, there will be no opposing Obama’s gun control plans.

If you’re in Georgia, Election 2008 is not over, and it’s not lost.  Now is the time to volunteer.  Scroll to the bottom of this page to find out information for your local EVC.

Calling the Attack

I’m going to make a prediction, because I think a picture might be shaping up here.  Given who Obama has nominated for his AG, and the things he said, I think we can expect gun shows, and in particular private sales, to be a prime target of the new administration.  Why?

  • Gun shows are a locus of organization for the gun community.  We’d be far weaker without them.  The other side has to know this too.  If you’re a recruiter or an activist, you go where the fishing is good, and the fishing is very good at gun shows.
  • They are easily demonized.  Few people have attended them, and the media has done an excellent job of making sure people think gun shows are a bunch of Nazi white-power types looking for a few extra boxes of grenades to defend the bunker from the blue helmeted hoards.
  • They are easily confused with the separate issue of private sales.  While shutting down private sales won’t, in and of itself, make gun shows disappear, they are an effective vehicle for pushing the issue and getting to gun shows.
  • John McCain supported regulating private sales, and the NRA endorsed him.  This was a signal that NRA wasn’t all that afraid of private sale regulation, and the number of gun owners who voted for McCain suggests they weren’t either.  This was always the risk of getting behind McCain.

My prediction is that when they move on gun owners, they will move on this issue.  They will reach farther than McCain ever would have ever done, and we will have to fight them.  I expect private sales regulation will be the main push, but expect gun shows themselves to be in the crosshairs, with the aim of destroying them.

Mixed Messages

This is pretty friggin funny.  The anti-freedom crowd can’t seem to get their messaging together.  Delaware recently passed a low allowing for handgun hunting.   Apparently Freedom States Alliance says handguns are way too powerful for hunting, while HSUS argues that they aren’t powerful enough.  Perhaps it might occur to some people that both groups are full of crap.

Financial Crisis? What Financial Crisis?

Paul Helmke would like to think it was their message, rather than the financial crisis, which delivered the election to Obama.  SayUncle points out that it’s hooey.  What killed us this election was exceptionally bad Republican turnout.  We did a lot of hard get out the vote work in my district, which paid off.  My county only bled 3000 or so votes from 2004.  Pennsylvania is a difficult state for gun rights activists.  Many of our gun owners are also union members, and can’t always be counted on to vote like gun owners.  When economic times get rough, they run for the big “D”.  It’s worthwhile to point out that McCain was ahead in Pennsylvania before the financial crisis hit.  I recall conversations with a few gun owners after the crisis that went, “Well, I have a choice between my guns and putting food on the table.  I just don’t think we can afford another 8 years of failed economic policy.”  Of course, if you have your guns, you can always put food on the table, but it’s hard to convince people worried about jobs and mortgages to vote their gun rights.  People tend to vote their pocketbooks before all.

Sportsmen voted along the same lines for McCain that they did for Bush, but fewer of them turned out.  I think there were a lot more of those guys than my interactions with gun owners was indicative of.  A lot of unhappy gun owners voted with their butts, in that they spent election day sitting on it.  I can’t blame the Brady Campaign for trying to ride Obama’s coattails.  Maybe it’ll help their fundraising.  We’ll see how the next two years goes for them, but my prediction is that things will not go as well for them as they wish, nor as bad for them as we would like.  It’s going to be rough, either way.

A New Term

For hunters that don’t support gun rights, except for their own, BadIdeaGuy managed to come up with a new term I think I like:

AHSAhole

We’ll declare Ray Schoenke the inaugural member of the club.

UPDATE: Looks like this isn’t the first instance of that term.  Ray Schoenke will have to be number 2.

What’s Selling

From today’s Shooting Wire:

High-end retailers continue to report steady sales, with increased interest in AR-style rifles. Their biggest challenge was getting the “upper priced models and accessories”. There was also a markedly lower interest in the high-end hunting guns, with a couple of retailers admitting surprise that high-end hunting rifles were coming in as trades for – you guessed it- AR-style rifles and semi-auto pistols.

Mid-level dealers say their business was spiking in ammo sales, particularly in the .223/5.56, 7.62×39, and .308. In fact, many were calling around in their dealer networks last week trying to find more of each – with no luck. As one dealer said “we can’t even get the stuff we normally warn our customers about shooting because of the lacquered cases.”

This week ammo is in even shorter supply with .308 selling at what some dealers characterized as “ridiculous” levels. Friday, I saw 5,000 rounds of .22 caliber ammo fetch and $400. Granted, it was very high-end ammo, but that price was staggering. Even more surprising, there was no argument at the price.

They are saying even pawn shop owners are saying people are coming in and offer gold jewelry, and old guns for AR-15s and semi-auto pistols.   It’s almost like someone is planning to ban them or something.