Polling

Most polls are showing poor for more gun laws among the population. Bloomberg, being quick to capitalize on this tragedy, already has a poll he’s touting showing folks support gun control. You can find the results here. Again, we have nicely loaded questions like:

“Ban the sale of high-capacity ammunition magazines”

Why not say ban the sale of ammunition magazines holding more than ten rounds?

“Track bulk purchases of assault rifles, which have become the weapon of choice of Mexican drug”

Why not “Track bulk purchases of semi-automatic rifles with detachable magazines.” That’s question is so loaded the crap is leaking out.

“Prohibit anyone convicted of a misdemeanor sex crime from purchasing guns”

How many people are thinking child molesters and people peddling kiddy porn? That’s a felony pretty much everywhere. I have a friend who was once arrested for being topless on what she thought was a secluded beach. So you want her prohibited now? Some people got arrested for streaking in the 70s too. What about a guy that got busted for mooning a cop in college? These are misdemeanor sex offenses.

“Require all people buying ammunition to pass a criminal background check”

This is a new one. Does anyone seriously still argue that MAIG isn’t a gun control group?

Time for Dick Lugar to Go

He’s calling for a new assault weapons ban. I believe, the first Republican Senator to come out in support of the idea. I hope Indiana tea party groups are thinking about a challenger. Two years will arrive quickly.

Common Ground in Transparency?

I’ve been thinking more lately about common ground in this debate, and why there’s none to be found. Chiefly I’ve been thinking about an idea that would, in theory, address a lot of concerns on both sides. But this, like many other ideas I’ve had, can probably be filed under politically infeasible. I’ve wondered why we don’t, instead of continually fighting over turning the ratchet up on down on who or who isn’t a prohibited person, we compromise, and put a bit more faith in social pressure instead of law?

Our opponents have shown that they are unable to think of owning a gun as a constitutional right, even if they’ve learned to parrot the saying post Heller. That’s apparent in the proposals that people should be prohibited from purchasing a gun because an army recruiter turned them down, or because they were kicked out of school, in response to the late tragedy. What’s next? Being a disgruntled recently fired employee? How is anything a right which is subject to such a whim?

It’s worth thinking about how this country survived for so many decades with no background checks at all. Years ago, before the advent of industrialization, people moved around far less. Most people probably never went beyond more than a few dozen miles or so from where they were born, and people knew a lot more about what their neighbors were up to before our mass migration during the industrial revolution. In short, the town gun maker or shopkeeper knew who not to sell guns to, because he likely knew everyone in town, and knew which individuals were trouble.

The revolution in transportation brought about by industrialization and urbanization eradicated that world. The chances that a gun dealer personally knows all his customers is practically nil. Combine that with modern taboos against discrimination in all forms, and you have a recipe for a situation where neither person in the transaction knows much about the other, but who nonetheless want to do business. This was the core situation the electronic background check was meant to try to solve, but to date we’ve tried to solve that only with black-and-white, one-size-fits-all laws, where the government is in charge of the decision making process. Personally, I put more faith individual people than I do in government.

I’ll concede for people prohibited by the current system, except the Lautenberg misdemeanors, we’ll keep that as is. Those folks will still be flagged as denied by the system. It will remain illegal to sell to those folks knowingly. But we’ll limit the scope of the outright prohibition to only that category. Beyond that we’ll provide the dealer with a complete five year history of arrests and convictions, and provided no disabling convictions, leave the decision up to him or her. Hell, in the name of transparency, let’s make it a smart phone or tablet app, available to everyone. All you need is a name, date of birth, and zip code, and you can run the same check a dealer does on anyone. Since we’re doing this, there’s little reason to restrict access based on state of residence at the federal level.

But our side will require immunity from civil suit for the decision, either way it goes. In other words, if the person is not prohibited, and the dealer or individual sells to them anyway, they can’t be sued for it. Likewise there can be no discrimination suit for turning a sale down. Otherwise it’s going to be an invitation to our opponents to attack us. In addition, even with immunity, our opponents will be quick to pounce the first time someone sells a gun to sumdood who was recently arrested of peeing behind a dumpster on his way home from a bar, but who later does something with the gun that ends up on the 6:00 news.

There’s something very attractive about the idea of replacing legal obligations with social pressure, but it requires everyone in the room to be adults. If there’s anything that the reaction to this recent tragedy has shown is that virtually no one in the mainstream media, or among our opponents, are capable of being adults, and accepting we can’t fix every problem with a new law and more government. I can promise you my model would work far more effectively at achieving the goals our opponents claim to desire, but they could never muster the trust required in their fellow citizens to accept it would work effectively. They’d quickly use the outliers as examples of how it didn’t work, and call for more laws. But under which model do you think more marginal characters would be denied access to firearms through lawful channels, while freeing up the law abiding to engage in less restricted commerce? It amazes me why they can’t see why there can’t be any common ground on this issue. Common ground to them is, “You agree with me!” Give and take is a foreign concept.

Taking The Magazine Ban Seriously

Sean notices that there doesn’t appear to be any great run on magazines. If McCarthy’s bill started to move, I’d probably stock up, but I have most of the magazines I need currently. One habit I got into with the AWB, is when you pick up a new gun that takes a new magazine, order five or so magazines for it. I suspect many people got in similar habits.

One Gun McCarthy’s Magazine Ban Would Ban

The Henry Repeating Rifle:

To the amazed muzzleloader-armed Confederates who had to face this deadly “sixteen shooter,” it was “that damned Yankee rifle that they load on Sunday and shoot all week!”

I for one am very happy that Carrie McCarthy and the gun control groups have such consideration for the lives of confederate soldiers by banning this deadly sixteen shooter.

UPDATE: The interesting thing about her bill is that, normally, a Henry rifle wouldn’t even be considered a firearm for legal purposes, having been made before 1898. It is an antique firearm under federal law, and normally unregulated. But the law bans the magazine on the gun, and thus the gun with it, since the magazine cannot be removed. Because her law chooses to exempt a particular type of attached, fixed magazine, it can be reasonably argued that other types of attached magazines are meant to be covered by the ban. Since the ban makes no distinction between modern and antique firearms, the Henry Rifle is covered by the ban.

Draft McCarthy Bill

Thanks to Jacob, we have found a draft copy of the bill McCarthy plans to introduce. Here’s the features.

  • 10 round limit
  • Importation completely prohibited.
  • Transfer completely prohibited
  • Manufacture completely prohibited
  • Grandfathering for current owners only.
  • Exception for law enforcement because they need “to be able to shoot as many people as possible as quickly as possible,” apparently.
  • Ten year prison sentence for violation.

Needless to say the response to this bill isn’t “no.” It’s “Hell no!” Under this law, I could become a felon for giving a magazine to Bitter. There’s no exception to transfer except for law enforcement. Technically handing one to your friend would be a felony.

You can all take your ball and go home now, gun control folks, the answer is no. She’s introducing it Tuesday. I’d suggest calling shortly thereafter, to tell your critter you expect it to go nowhere. Don’t take anything for granted.

UPDATE: Some more features, looking more closely:

  • Would ban stripper clips that hold more than 10 rounds.
  • Would ban any gun with a fixed tubular magazine that was not a .22 that held more than 10 rounds.
  • Ban any gun with a fixed magazine capacity that is more than 10 rounds of any caliber, if magazine is not tubular.
  • Would ban all belted ammunition, or parts that could be use to make up a belt.
  • Would ban any repair parts for a magazine if the repair parts could be used to make a magazine.
  • Presumably retired law enforcement need to shoot as many people as fast as possible too, because they are also exempted.

UPDATE: Yes, looking over it, this will ban some guns folks. This isn’t just a magazine ban.

David Kopel on Tucson in Philly from Colorado

Today, Dave Kopel was featured as a guest on the local NPR affiliate discussing gun control with John Donohue from Stanford. I didn’t see the heads up about the interview until after it started, and then I spent probably 10 minutes trying to figure out how to work our radio and trying to find the NPR station. When I finally noticed the live broadcast online, I did catch the last half of it.

The first bit I heard was from John Donohue essentially arguing the NRA is to blame for shootings, then he ended on some comment about Southerners being easy targets to steal guns from their homes. Offensive on so many levels. Anyway, I just downloaded the piece that end about an hour ago and uploaded it here. I haven’t even listened to the first half yet because I’m still not happy about the portion I heard. (Though, Dave is an amazing man with patience who can still firmly hold our position throughout an interview.) Also, I have bread to check on and lunch to grab. So, enjoy and add your own commentary until I decide to sit down for the whole thing.

Dave Kopel on Philly NPR

UPDATE (By Sebastian): I have to congratulate Dave for getting Donahue to make a long anecdotal argument, then say we shouldn’t make anecdotal arguments when he was confronted with facts.

UPDATE (By Sebastian): Donahue apparently blames Chris Cox for the financial crisis. A shame for him it’s not the same Chris Cox. He doesn’t even have basic facts right.*

Virginia Court Ruling Upholds Public University Ban

I tend to agree with Eugene Volokh on this one. The Court did not need to reach the “sensitive place” analysis, because there are other ways it could have been upheld. I’m starting to end up in the Josh Blackman camp, somewhat. I think Heller and McDonald were important decisions in many ways, but only one that will end up protecting our extreme flanks at best. The rest of this is going to remain a political issue. Ultimately, the greater effect these two rulings may be in the minds of the people, rather than in the minds of federal judges.

Word has it that Justice Kennedy was at the memorial service, along with former Justice O’Conner. I fear this could bring gun rights progress in the federal courts to a screeching halt if it’s making someone like Kennedy reconsider his position, or how far he wants to take the right. It’s my impression the Heller and McDonald majorities were very weak, otherwise we could have gotten stronger language from the Court. Did it just get weaker? Time will tell.

Ultimately the Bradys may be right that this only takes the extremes off the table. What they don’t realize is that’s likely fatal for them, and will merely delay our journey to get the Second Amendment treated as seriously as other rights which are part of the American landscape.

Two Ways This Affects Us

I think I am probably on safe ground arguing we can likely muster the political power necessary to kill any new gun control laws in Congress as a result of the Arizona tragedy. But I do think this will affect us in two fairly important ways:

  1. You can bet this has put guns front and center in the minds of the federal judiciary, and not in a good way. At best I would classify most federal judges as luke warm to the idea of gun rights, and probably more realistically the average would be mild hostility to the idea. This isn’t going to help us, going forward in the courts, that one of their own was shot by a nut.
  2. It probably just got harder to pass constitutional carry in more states. No politician is going to want a law he voted for under the microscope the next time some whack job goes off the deep end with a gun. It makes absolutely no different that those laws will do nothing to stop someone intent on murder, or that police will have zero ability to detect and stop preemptively. What matters is politicians don’t like feeling embarrassed in public.

Those are the two main effects this will have, as I see it. This hasn’t made the pendulum turn, I don’t think, but it has taken some of the wind out of our sails. Our opponents can probably obtain some sense of satisfaction that this has likely managed to slow our agenda. I guess the real question is, is that worth the lives of five people from their point of view?

I would encourage everyone to be on guard and communicating with lawmakers. If the pendulum doesn’t swing on this incident, it is only because we made it so.

Most Say Stricter Gun Laws Won’t Help

Rasmussen has a poll out, and it turns out that only 29% think stricter gun control would have prevented shootings like the one in Arizona, plus:

Despite Saturday’s tragedy, opposition to gun control is at a new high. Thirty-six percent (36%) say the United States needs stricter gun control laws, but 56% don’t share that belief and oppose stronger anti-gun laws. Previously, opposition to more gun control has ranged from a high of 51% in July of last year to a low of 37% in April 2007 following the killings at Virginia Tech.

We win. They lose.