Category: Pennsylvania

As Sebastian mentioned earlier, we’re out working polls right now. He’s in the northern part of the county helping out, and I’m at a poll near our home working for our Congressional candidate. I’ll try to be in and out today if there are any break times. Check in on Twitter to @bitterb for my observations, and maybe for @SebastianSH if anything goes on up near him.

But, for those of you not following along that closely, here’s what’s at stake and why we give a damn:

• Governor – We can pick up the battle for Castle Doctrine again next year, and if we do, we’ve got one candidate in favor & one candidate flat out opposed to any expansion of the right to defend your life in and outside of your home.  Pretty damn extreme if you ask me.
• State House – The Democrats currently lead the House 104-99.  The Speaker & Majority Leader have been Second Amendment allies, but the committees have been the source of many problems and those are led by many anti-gun Democrats.  Add in the big unknown of who will lead the House when the Speaker retires and the Majority Leader in jeopardy, and it’s a huge risk for gun owners.  Oh yeah, and redistricting.  We’re slated to lose a congressional seat, and the House and Senate will re-draw all of the districts in the state.  Big freakin’ deal.
• US Senate – Hello filibuster.  Hello Supreme Court nominees.  Hello pretentious, annoying as shit, I know better than you liberal.  Yeah, there’s a lot on the line in this race.  Really.  I won’t every acknowledge the Senator if we lose this one.
• Congress – It’s a chance to help really end Nancy Pelosi’s career in leadership.  It’s also a chance to put a stake in the political heart of one of her favored minions.

So, here are the candidates and why their races matter – endorsees in red:

Governor: Tom Corbett vs. Dan Onorato – We’re not really concerned about this race.  Depending on who you ask, Onorato is down 10-15 points at this stage in the game.  Not even President Clinton can turn out a large crowd to a rally for him.  When a poll had him down only 7 points, he claimed that he had momentum on his side.  Sure, that’s what we call it.

State House: If we can flip 3 seats, we can change up the leadership & committee chairs. It’s not a guarantee for change we need, but it’s a safer bet than leaving it in current hands. So, here are the main races we’re watching:

• Frank Farry vs. John Toth (142) – It’s our local race.  One candidate is a very angry-looking man and the other is a hot firefighter.  Okay, it’s about more than that, but that does matter when it comes to the campaign mailers. :)  Our guy is A rated, and he’s made it very clear that we know he’s willing to listen to gun owners.  The other one is making some bizarre claims (“I’m an independent! I just happened to have been head of a political party, but I promise I don’t really care about them that much!”) and only got a C- on the NRA questionnaire.  Holding this seat is really just keeping the status quo.
• Rob Ciervo vs. Steve Santa-ohhellIcan’tspellhislongname (31) – This is a nearly local race, and one we’ve been volunteering for lately.  This will be one seat toward flipping the House, and an important one to flip for gun owners.  There’s a story to tell about this race and how we can prove that you really make a difference, but we’ll wait to see if we were completely successful before telling it.  Also, Ciervo is actually better looking than his photos, and I’m all for more attractive men on PCN when I need to tune in for House votes.
• Marguerite Quinn vs. Kathy McQuarrie (143) – Rep. Quinn stood by us on all the votes this year, and she worked hard to raise her grade for sportsmen in area. For that, she deserves our support. This will again be about maintaing the seats we need, but she’s a good representative to have in office. We don’t really know if this is a serious race or not since it’s hard to judge with the district being pretty far out of our normal travel area, but it’s not one we can afford to risk.
• Todd Stephens vs. Rick Taylor (151) – This is another race that could flip control of the House.  Stephens has the NRA endorsement, and Taylor is a D rated incumbent.  This would be seat number 2 of 3 we need to flip.  That’s not too shabby considering these are only races in Southeast Pennsylvania.  If we pick up any others around the state, we’re golden.  To make things even more exciting, this is a race with a former incumbent running, and he only lost in 2008 by about 400 votes.

State Senate: Chuck McIllhinney vs. Cynthia Philo (10) – Sadly, this is the only Senate race in Bucks County with an NRA endorsed candidate.  :( But, he’s with us on everything, and he even invests in targets that he donates to the local ranges.  Is is a ploy for name recognition?  Of course, but it’s still a great courtesy that benefits our community.  Couple that with the votes, and I’m a big fan.  The Senate isn’t in play, but Sen. McIllhinney is worth recognizing.

Congress: We have the most number of competitive Congressional races in the country. We’re not watching them all as closely, but here are some highlights:

• Mike Fitzpatrick vs. Patrick Pelosi Murphy (PA-8) – Murphy tried to pretend he was pro-gun, but he has signed onto gun bans, taken money from the Brady Campaign, and even refused to take an individual view of the Second Amendment in the Heller case. We need to send him home. (Actually, he probably won’t return to the district. He’s been a very good fundraiser for bringing in money outside of the district, so I assume he’ll relocate to DC if he loses & become part of the professional political class.)
• Mike Kelly vs. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3) – She’s anti-gun & much farther left than her district.  In a few polls, not many people seemed to know who he was, but they really hated her.  This could be a fun one.  Break out the popcorn.
• Jason Altmire vs. Keith Rothfus (PA-4) – Go Jason.  Go Jason.  Go Jason.  I like this pro-gun Democrat.  He’s been good on other issues, too.  But, obviously, the priority is the gun issue.  He’s the kind of Democrat I really want to come through this election.  We need voices like his leading his party in the right direction on civil rights.
• Pat Meehan vs. Bryan Lentz (PA-7) – You want sleazy politician vibe? Just hand out around Bryan Lentz. This guy seriously makes me uncomfortable in person. He even has the slicked back hair to complete the look. Pat Meehan has the NRA support, and it’s really important that NRA members turn out for him in this race. Lentz is trying to show that an anti-gun leader can be elected from this state outside of Philadelphia’s proper city limits. We need to prove him wrong if we don’t want to hand the other side a literal and emotional victory.
• Lou Barletta vs. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) – NRA is backing Kanjorski as a Democrat with solid Second Amendment credentials.  But, he’s likely to lose this time around.  He barely won against Barletta in 2008, even when Obama took the district with surprising numbers.  We’re pretty peeved at Kanjo for his health care vote & the like, but we understand why NRA is sticking with their policy in this race. The numbers will be the interesting story in this campaign.

US Senate: Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak – Contrary to Sebastian’s dog issues, we’re backing Toomey based on the issues. I promise. Also, someday we will own a small dog. I promise. :)

What races are you guys watching at home?  Feel free to discuss while we’re out shaking babies & kissing hands.

I know I asked this just a couple of weeks ago, but why on earth is Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato even trying at this point? It really just makes him look a little more pathetic that he’s trying so hard and actually slipping in the polls. Two polls released late last night & today put him down 14 and 15 points, respectively. The money race hasn’t changed much, either. Corbett is outraising & outspending him, and still has more left in the bank.

If we didn’t have to worry about how tight the Senate race between Toomey & Sestak has been lately, then it would just be comedy gold. Unfortunately, we gun owners can’t take any votes for granted this year. And, as much as I’m gloating about Onorato’s failing campaign, there’s still nearly a week left, and voters are fickle and pissy this year. There are still too many races around Pennsylvania and the rest of the country that are too close to call.

Of course, I would argue that Corbett’s campaign could still use some help. There’s a good chance that these double digit leads won’t stay that large until Election Day. But, because Onorato has embraced a strategy of pushing gun control as a key component of his campaign, we need his campaign to fail miserably. We need him to lose and lose big. We need to remind Ed Rendell & his buddie in Philadelphia that we still outvote them, and gun control still pisses us off.

The anti-gunners have officially endorsed Dan Onorato for governor in Pennsylvania. But remember, he’s not really anti-gun!

Sebastian says they would be fools not to endorse him. However, I disagree and believe that they are fools to do so. The other side has only dabbled in the endorsement game before, and this will be a huge loss to them. They won’t be able to turn out votes on the issue, and if the current polls that run near or over a double digit lead for his opponent hold true in a couple of weeks, it will just be an embarrassment for everyone who got on board.

Onorato has decided to run to the extremes on the issues in these last few days. He has officially said he would veto Castle Doctrine if elected, and he does not support any expansion of the right to defend your own life or that of your family on your own property.

I’ve been paying attention to the number of signs going up around our area during this campaign, and it’s not news that those going up are overwhelmingly GOP signs. What I find startling are the people who are putting up signs.

One property owner on a major road just a mile or so away has never put a single political sign up in all the years I’ve been visiting or living with Sebastian. He now has a massive plywood sign taking up his entire corner for the Republican congressional candidate – Mike Fitzpatrick.

Several homes in our neighborhood have never had political signs up before, and they are now sporting signs for Fitzpatrick, and for the Senate candidate, Pat Toomey.

Almost every house with McCain signs out in 2008 has at least two more GOP signs out this year. Unlike 2008, I have yet to see a single Democrat in our area put up a sign. The only signs we’ve seen for Democrats have been posted by the campaign on public property instead of private lawns. I really didn’t see much in the way of bumper stickers when for Republican candidates in 2008, but now I see them on a few cars parked around the neighborhood.

To say there’s an enthusiasm gap in the signage is an understatement. I know the ultimate sign will be the results on election night, but so far, things are looking pretty good here in Lower Bucks County. In the meantime, I’ll take some time to also enjoy this snippet from the NYT on the Democratic incumbent’s attempt to campaign in the darkest blue portions of the district and getting yelled at by nearly everyone in the neighborhood.

Nobody can say that politics is boring this year. We’ve got angry independents, tea parties, bumbling Republicans, Democrats who can’t even get people to remember they are on the ballot, and outside groups pouring money into Pennsylvania to try and shake things up (or keep them the same – depending on their interests).

The Teamsters just withdrew their endorsement of Bryan Lentz in PA-7 yesterday. This can’t be good for him.

The district was represented by a Republican until 2006 when the FBI announced an investigation surrounding the GOP incumbent right before election day. The race had not been on anyone’s radar until that point. Suddenly, the Republican was booted out and the investigation lead to absolutely squat. Since then, it seems to have highlighted just how far left the primary counties in the district have gone. Even in a landmark year like this, polling hasn’t put the Republican former US Attorney terribly far ahead. Charlie Cook has it as a Lean R and Larry Sabato has it as a Toss-Up.

But, that said, Lentz can’t afford to lose any votes. And having a major Democratic interest group tell its members that they shouldn’t bother voting for you? Well, that’s not good. In fact, I would argue that a withdrawn endorsement is probably worse than having never had an endorsement at all, though I admit to not having much to back that up rather than gut feeling and a general knowledge of how NRA members would likely handle it if it happened on our issue.

With this news just adding to the excitement, I guess I should go buy some popcorn. Think they have the Christmas tubs on sale yet? This is going to be one very amusing election night.