VSSA has a great post on yesterday’s debate between Democratic gubernatorial candidates. You’ll note that two of the candidates are trying to twist their way into different positions in an attempt to appease presumably anti-gun party primary voters primarily in the DC suburbs and also a more pro-gun general populace across the entire state. Sometimes it’s best to just grab a bowl of popcorn and watch the entertainment.
Category: Politics
Let’s Hope They Are Right
The Beaver County Times published a short editorial about the gun rights rally in Harrisburg last week.
Hundreds of pro-gun advocates, led by the president of the National Rifle Association, showed up to remind state lawmakers who is pulling the strings and whose strings are being pulled.
It was an impressive combination of clout and cowering. (It’s not hard to figure out which adjective applied to gun backers and which applied to lawmakers.)
I hope they are correct in their prediction that gun control at the state level isn’t likely to move.
Biden Eases Burden on Secret Service
Our Vice President reminds us on this 101st day of the Obama Administration that we could have, in fact, made a worse electoral decision. Instead of keeping on his talking points about Obama’s “enchanting moments,” he used his time on the Today show this morning to unleash his inner survivalist.
Joe Biden tells Americans that they should no longer take public transportation, fly on commercial airlines, or sit in “enclosed” classrooms. I’m sure that will really help the struggling economy. Politico tells us that the Administration has promised a forthcoming “clarifying statement.” According to one account on Twitter, even the show’s hosts were wondering why Biden just asked America to stop using public transportation.
Celebrating the First 100 Days
For your amusement, Jim Geraghty has posted a list of at least 16 promises from Obama that have expired within his first 100 days. (For you non-mathy readers, that’s an average of one broken promise every 6 days.)
Jim notes that once his readers find the post, he will no doubt receive many more submissions. I’ll be curious to see if he can get 100 broken promises for each of the 100 days in office.
Democrats Clearing the Field for Specter
Via Grassroots PA, it looks like they are clearing the way for Specter on the Democratic side. State Representative Josh Shapiro is ruling out running now, and so is Allyson Schwartz. Grassroots PA also reports Sestak isn’t rulling out a primary challenge, and Sestak is a big enough asshole to do it. Apparently Torsella is also staying in.
If Specter is too progressive for Pennsylvania Republicans, he’s probably too conservative for a lot of Democratic primary voters. I would be surprised if Specter doesn’t face anyone in the primary, but we’ll see. The Democratic Party seems to be getting behind Specter, so anyone who does run won’t likely have the backing of the party leadership.
There’s a lot of speculation that Specter can’t really be trusted on the gun issue, because of his betrayal of the Republican Party and of conservatism. It’s certainly a possibility he’ll abandon his positions on guns, but I don’t think it’s likely. One mistake folks should not make when it comes to politicians, is believing they have any loyalty to anything beyond keeping their seats.
From that point of view, Specter’s move is perfectly rational. Polling is making it abundantly clear he can’t survive politically in Pennsylvania as a Republican. He could have waited to see whether that changed, but switching parties late in the game wouldn’t give him any time to build support among Democrats, and to raise money through those circles. When viewed through the lens of “What do I need to do to stay in office,” switching parties was really the only choice, and now is probably the right time.
The question for Specter is whether he views his record on guns as an asset, or a liability. If Specter faces a serious primary challenger from the left, he might view it as a liability. If I were Specter, I would look at it this way: his NRA endorsement is the one asset that he can take with him across the aisle.
But wait? Republicans will never vote for him whether he carries an NRA endorsement or not! True, but Pennsylvania is not generally a red state. It’s a blue state, generally pro-gun, and it’s worthwhile noting that Specter has never been a conservative and has always had a lot of support among Democrats, and many of those Democrats appreciate his stance on the Second Amendment. Pennsylvania has a lot of A rated pro-gun Democrats. The last thing Arlen Specter will want is to tempt those Democratic voters to cross the aisle and vote for his opponent.
If I had to put money on it, I’d bet Specter stays good on guns. It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong if he doesn’t, but this also isn’t New York. Specter’s party switch is a cold political calculation aimed at keeping his seat, and in that case, the same calculation should also make him want to keep his endorsement.
The Difficulty of Specter’s Switch
Bitter asks in the previous post about whether Specter will want to keep his A-rating from the NRA. Specter is politically weak, and NRA is a good ally to have in your corner in Pennsylvania, even if your a Democrat. I don’t think he can afford to piss off the NRA right now. But it’s actually a bit of an issue for Bitter and I if he keeps his endorsement.
The issue is, we’ve yet to have an endorsed Democrat running for any office. This makes it a lot easier for us to work through the GOP, instead of the individual campaigns, in order to provide support for our endorsed candidates. When we had ourselves and our volunteers manning phone banks this past election, it was through the Republican Federal Committee of Pennsylvania. The calls were going out to benefit all the federal candidates in our district, all of whom happened to be endorsed, and all of whom were Republicans. We didn’t have to choose between who we lent our time to. We could shill for all them at the same time working through the GOP.
If in 2010, Specter wins the NRA endorsement as a Democrat, we’ll have to go back to working through the individual campaigns at the federal level. As much as I hate Arlen Specter on several other issues, and will loathe having to volunteer for him, it’s my commitment in my role as a volunteer to help NRA deliver the votes to their endorsed candidates. I take that seriously, because when endorsed candidates lose, it feeds the perception, currently being molded by our illustrious Governor, that NRA endorsements don’t help you in Pennsylvania. So as much as I hate Arlen Specter as a citizen, as an NRA election volunteer, I’ll help him out if he wins the endorsement.
It’s times like this I wish I had some pro-gun Dems who wanted to help out candidates. That way I wouldn’t have to get my hands dirty with Arlen. If he wins the Democratic primary, I do hope I can recruit some pro-gun Dems who want to help him out. I want Specter to stay true to his current A-rating, because it would better to have two candidates fighting over the gun vote than not. But if Specter goes down in the Dem primary, I can’t say I’ll be all that disappointed. I’d like to be able to throw my support fully behind Pat Toomey.
As much as the thought of having to help out Specter in 2010 bothers me, you don’t win friends in politics by throwing them off the boat at the first sign of rough seas. In politics, you don’t always get good choices. It’s not a game for people who prefer things to be black and white, and the choices to be easy.
Snarlen Switches Parties – Will His Votes Switch, Too?
I think it’s time for a poll.
[poll id=”11″]
Rendell Says Gun Control Not Likely
Rendell says he’s going to try, but it’ll be difficult.
The governor is also pushing for the re-enactment of a federal assault weapons ban. He says he doesn’t expect the president to put it on the table now, but hopes it can be raised after health care is addressed.
I was debating putting a feature on this blog that counts down the days, minutes, and seconds until the end of Ed Rendell’s governorship. I think I’m going to have to do that when the time closes in.
Jersey City Case Going to NJ Supreme Court
Jersey City passed a gun rationing ordinance, and ANJRPC fought it in court and won. It looks like the case is going before the New Jersey Supreme Court now.  As we detailed a few months ago, ACORN is heavily involved in this case. The New Jersey court system has not always been friendly to gun issues. The infamous case of New Jersey v. Pelleteri is instructive. Pelleteri was charged with being in possession of a Marlin Model 60, with a 17 round tube fed magazine, which is defined as an “assault firearm” under New Jersey law. His defense tried to argue that he was unaware the Marlin fell under New Jersey’s definition, and thus he did not knowingly possess an “assault firearm.”  The court concluded:
When dealing with guns, the citizen acts at his peril. In short, we view the statute as a regulatory measure in the interests of the public safety, premised on the thesis that one would hardly be surprised to learn that possession of such a highly dangerous offensive weapon is proscribed absent the requisite license.
That’s a .22LR plinking gun they are speaking of here, not an AK-47. Oh, and the license they speak of? They won’t issue it to you. They are like carry licenses in New Jersey, in that they exist in theory, but not in practice.
I think about traveling to New Jersey to shoot sometimes, and then I remember all the case law I’ve read, and think better of it. Sometimes it’s better, even if a bit riskier, to be ignorant.
UPDATE: This article about the oral arguments make it sound as though Jersey City made the argument that if the Court would allow them to break the state’s preemption laws, then it would be okay because other cities would follow in their tracks.
Jardim pushed for the court to keep the ordinance so that other towns and states might create similar laws.
“We hope that towns adopt it. We hope that the state adopts it. We hope that Pennsylvania adopts it. We hope that there’s a federal law for it,” said Jardim.
Castle Doctrine Introduced
In the Pennsylvania Senate, by Senator Alloway. I’m going to guess the Republican controlled Senate is an easier route of introduction. Gets it to the House without having to wrangle through Democrat controlled committees.  Chances are we can pass this, but Rendell can always veto it, and probably will. Still, it will force the issue, and make the Democratic nominee for governor, whoever that turns out to be, take a stand on that issue. We probably already know that Corbett, who is the presumed GOP nominee, will support its passage.