Reprise

Before Pennsylvania even had time to dry out from Irene, it looks like we just got creamed again with the remnants of Lee. This time, however, Central Pennsylvania got the worst of it, rather than us. But folks along the Delaware River are still in trouble, since the rains were quite fierce upstream. This picture was taken a few hours ago, and the river will not crest until tomorrow morning. The problem is, it’s rained so much here that the ground won’t take any more water, so it’s all going to end up in the rivers and streams.

We did OK here. The heavy thunderstorms moving through around 4AM woke me up, and we had rain heavy enough for a while to keep my sump pump pretty much constantly on, but no power loss, and the rains didn’t keep up long enough to pose a serious threat. It wasn’t like Irene, which was several hours of continuous torrential downpour.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to the folks in Central Pennsylvania. You can see footage of some of the flooding here. Checked in with my dad, who’s out near Lebanon, and they came through OK, but since he’s active with the local fire department, spent all night pumping out basements and helping rescue stranded drivers. Capitol Ideas has video of the current state of the Susquehanna River, as well as continuing Twitter coverage of the situation in Central Pennsylvania.

Plea Deal in Grizzly Killing

I did not cover the original incident, where a man shot a grizzly bear that was on his property. Looks like federal prosecutors have agreed to let him pay a 1000 dollar civil penalty in exchange for dropping the more serious criminal charges. I’m sure, after the publicity this case has brought, the U.S. Attorney could be pretty confident it would be tough to find a jury that would convict. I sure as hell wouldn’t.

IHOP Killer’s AK Chinese Made

The supply of Norinco’s on the open market hasn’t been plentiful for almost 20 years, so it’s surprising MSNBC is reporting on the tracing efforts, suggesting that the gun is a Norinco AK. Since it’s traced to a dealer that’s out of business, it obviously wasn’t smuggled in. Dealers are required to send their 4473 records and their A&D records to ATF when they go out of business, so the gun should be traceable, ultimately. But if it’s a Norinco, I’d say a strong possibility it’s a black market gun just based on how long ago it would have been sold. I doubt a Norinco in the hands of a collector is going to be let go of easily, since they are rare these days. They can still be had for 500-600 bucks on the legal market, but it’s been a while since I saw one at a gun show, or in a gun shop.

Picking on MSNBC a bit, it’s not true the federal assault weapons ban ever affected Norinco AKs. They were all imported before the ban went into effect, and were therefore grandfathered under the federal assault weapons ban. Norinco AKs were actually banned in 1993, rather than 1994. It is a mistake to suggest the federal AWB had anything to do with these rifles.

McCain Calling for Hearings in F&F

I was wondering what was prompting McCain to go all “maverick” on us again, but perhaps it’s because he planned to call for hearings in Fast and Furious, and wanted to show he wasn’t anyone’s bitch.

When I Get Skeptical of Science

Found this interesting article from Instapundit, which followed through to this, more detailed description of research that shows evidence of inbreeding between modern humans and other proto-human species:

“Our work is different from the research that led to the breakthroughs in Neanderthal genetics,” he explained. “We couldn’t look directly for ancient DNA that is 40,000 years old and make a direct comparison.”

To get past this hindrance, Hammer’s team followed a computational and statistical approach.

“Instead, we looked at DNA from modern humans belonging to African populations and searched for unusual regions in the genome.”

Because nobody knows the DNA sequences of those now extinct archaic forms, Hammer’s team first had to figure out what features of modern DNA might represent fragments that were brought in from archaic forms.

“What we do know is that the sequences of those forms, even the Neanderthals, are not that different from modern humans,” he said. “They have certain characteristics that make them different from modern DNA.”

The researchers used simulations to predict what ancient DNA sequences would look like had they survived within the DNA of our own cells.

“You could say we simulated interbreeding and exchange of genetic material in silico,” Hammer said. “We can simulate a model of hybridization between anatomically modern humans and some archaic form. In that sense, we simulate history so that we can see what we would expect the pattern to look like if it did occur.”

It’s an interesting theory, but any time someone tries to tell me they can successfully model complex systems with a computer program, I get very very skeptical. From my previous job, I know the difficulties in doing this with protein-ligand interactions, which we have a lot of experience modeling in-silico, and even that’s daunting. We’re also, still, not that remarkably good at it.

I would imagine to model something like this, you’d have to make a rather large number of assumptions. Since we also do not have African proto-human DNA, in contrast to what’s available for Neanderthals, I don’t see any way you could invalidate this model. One way I can think of is to see if it can successfully tag DNA sequences from known inter-species hybrids, where we do have the DNA for both parent species available. If it can do that, I might have some faith in it. I’d want to see it work on more than just Neanderthal cross-breeding with modern humans.

I should note, that the theory sounds plausible, and the evidence that it happened with Neanderthals is pretty strong, but my bullshit alarm goes off when computer models are employed to model complex systems with a lot of unknowns.

IHOP Killer Had History of Mental Illness

Clayton Cramer noted earlier today:

Keep on eye on this story. I would be very surprised if Sencion was not well known to police for previous mental illness problems. I would be surprised if there is not a history of observational holds, followed by release because he was not an imminent danger.

So far his prediction would seem to be bearing out:

Family members told authorities that Sencion had a history of mental problems dating back to age 16, the official said.

Also this:

Eduardo Sencion, 32, had been taken into custody in South Lake Tahoe in 2000 under a California law that allows police to hold a person who presents a danger to themselves or others, South Lake Tahoe police spokesman Lt. David Stevenson said.

There’s no background check system that’s going to work to disarm mentally ill people like this if authorities refuse to act. Even under California law, this would only have disabled him from buying a firearm for five years. Being held under this particular California statute is not a federal disqualification, nor should it be, since the amount of due-process afforded is very low.

Our opponents will hew and haw that we must turn the country into a giant padded cell, rather than making sure authorities and the mental health system understand the importance of getting these people proper mental health treatment, and, when necessary, getting them off the street. It’s not going to do us any good if they switch from using guns to matches and gasoline. You have to get the mentally ill off the streets, or this kind of thing is going to continue occurring.

 

 

 

Warm Bodies Wanted

Some of you may know we’re hosting a Bucks County Friends of the NRA event in a week, next Thursday, September 15th at 5:30PM. But this is a new event, and we’re running short on the numbers needed to make the event a success. If you live in the Philadelphia Metro Area, and you can spare some time to come help out NRA’s shooting programs, we’d love to have folks attend. We are going to try to have an SiH table, if enough folks are interested in attending. There are raffles, and because attendance is pretty low, the chances of walking away with a gun are going to be a lot higher than at some more established dinners. But even if you don’t walk away with a gun, it’s for a good cause.

For those not familiar with the Friends programs, the money raised at these events goes straight to shooting sports programs. It doesn’t go to pay salaries, or to NRA’s political activities. Half the money raised by PA Friends’ dinners stays here in Pennsylvania to support shooting programs here. If you look at the programs Friends’ supports, it’s basically about getting more guns into the hands of kids, which has a well known effect on our opponents.

If you’d like to buy a ticket, or get a friend to buy a ticket, you can follow the link here. Bitter and I would be most appreciative of anyone who can come.

It’s a Matter of the 14th Amendment

The Heller decision pretty clearly and unambiguously said that there was a Second Amendment right to bear arms, in addition to keeping them in the home. The McDonald decision incorporated that Second Amendment right through the 14th Amendment, so that it applies to both federal, state and local governments equally.

Cliff Schecter, a paid shill strategic advisor for Mayor Bloomberg’s group of illegal mayors, apparently has never heard of it. Let me remind Mr. Schecter of an important part of the 14th Amendment, from Section 5: “The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.” I would like to note the language of H.R. 822:

(3) The Congress has the power to pass legislation to protect against infringement of all rights protected under the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States.

(9) Among the purposes of this Act is the protection of the rights, privileges, and immunities guaranteed to a citizen of the United States by the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States.

Regardless of all the policy hysteria in Mr. Schecter’s op-ed, constitutional rights trump all but the most dire policy arguments. The fact of the matter is, anyone who’s not disqualified for crimes committed from exercising their right ought to be able to do it without regards to state borders. My right to free speech, free religion, or right be free of unreasonable searches and seizures does not appear and disappear as I move from state to state. Why is the Second Amendment any different?

But I understand why Schecter is working this issue, because it scares the hell out of Mayor Bloomberg. Well, tell your boss, Mr. Schecter: we are coming for his city’s gun laws, and we’re going to be relentless in this. We’re going to lay waste to the 20th century gun rights monstrosity that has been erected in New York City. Those laws are, and always have been, unconstitutional. There’s no amount of hewing and hawing on his part, or on the part of people he’s paying to hew and haw on his behalf, that’s going to stop us.

Putting the Blame Where it Belongs

Bob Barr, who sits on the NRA Board of Directors, notes that it’s time to get some real leadership at ATF, but unlike the gun control groups, puts the blame where it really belongs:

Only after last year’s midterm elections did the president rise from his lethargy and submit a name to the Senate. It was a name certain to raise the ire of the firearms community; and not surprisingly, it did. Andrew Tarver, former head of the ATF’s Chicago Field Division, has met with serious opposition from the GOP and the National Rifle Association because of his anti-firearms bias.

Yet, rather than working with his opponents to find a candidate on which both sides might agree, Obama has simply ignored the matter and allowed ATF to drift leaderless for nearly three years.

We’ve said Traver is unacceptable, but that seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Our opponents think ATF needs a solid director. I don’t think the rest of us disagree. But that requires a bit of give and take, and so far the Administration, and its allies in the gun control movement, only want to take. This is typical of their attitude, but it’s not helping ATF get adult supervision. Why is it so hard to find another nominee, who’s more acceptable?

Get Your Blood Dancing Shoes On …

… it’s another Tragedy Hoedown! Our opponents have been busy since yesterday using the latest mass shooting in Carson City to promote their political agenda. CSGV wants to know how the mentally ill individual got an AK-47. If I had to wager, the guy has a history of mental illness that has gone unreported by his family and by the authorities, if he’s had run-ins. But rather than our opponents focusing on what’s wrong with our mental health system, that so many people who need help are not getting it, they’ll push the gun control agenda, because that’s what they are about. The gun violence thing is just a nice candy coating to help the policy prescriptions go down, and make everyone else thing they are just such nice and caring people. I believe they are caring people. They care a lot about getting those icky guns out of our society.

But there is, so far, some lessons for the gun community in this. We know that there was an armed person at the scene:

“I wish I had shot at him when he was going in the IHOP,” said Swagler, who owns Locals BBQ & Grill. “But when he came at me, when somebody is pointing an automatic weapon at you — you can’t believe the firepower, the kind of rounds coming out of that weapon.”

I don’t blame the guy for not running in and being a hero, but this is a pretty typical fear reaction. The solution to this is training, and lots of it. I will admit this is a case where I should follow my own prescription more than I do, because I don’t feel I’ve been training enough these days. I haven’t been to a practical shooting competition in quite a while. Competition is the best way I’ve found of learning to shoot under pressure. Most importantly, it lets you know what you can and can’t do under stress, and conditions your reactions. A lot of people who carry a gun regularly are honestly just pretending. They aren’t really serious about being prepared to use it. It’s not a talisman, it’s a tool, and if you’re not confident in using it, this is probably how you’re going to react.

UPDATE: Another report has him taking cover in his restaurant. If that’s the case, he did not have a shot he failed to take. The report I linked made it sound like the shooter was coming toward him, and he did not take the shot out of fear. Like I said, I don’t blame the guy for not charging in to be the hero; that’s what SWAT teams with rifles and body armor are for.