Gun Rights – Page 93 – Shall Not Be Questioned

Republicans Clamoring For Bill?

The Republicans are busy crafting an alternative bill, according to Politico:

One top Senate Republican aide called Grassleyâ€™s alternative bill â€œa break-the-glass kitâ€ in case Reid does round up 60 votes.

Bloomberg is doing everything he can to round up 60 votes. Yesterday Joe Donnelley caved to Bloomberg pressure, showing his office is willing to be run from Gracie Mansion, rather than from voters in Indiana. Who else is going to cave? Clearly there’s some concern the Democrats can come up with 60. They actually can’t do it without some Republicans, but they are clearly looking for those.

On Polling and Passing the Buck

Cuomo is blaming Bloomberg and the Brady Campaign for the problems with the SAFE act. Sorry, no dice Guv, you own it. Apparently Bloomberg isn’t happy with this. You’d almost think gun control isn’t popular or something. Shouldn’t they be clamoring to take credit to the cheers of adoring citizens who are thrilled that we have such stalwarts as Cuomo and Bloomberg standing up for everyone’s “right to be safe?”

CBS News notes that polling support for stricter gun control is waning, and National Journal says the Democrats misread the polling on gun control.

The support for gun-control policies then is â€œreally high but shallow,â€ Hatalsky said.Â â€œPeople will support this and they think itâ€™s a good idea, but they donâ€™t feel super deeply about it,â€ Hatalsky said. â€œTheyâ€™re not convinced that it will necessarily work and that it will work to change their own lives.â€

I think that’s a big part of the picture, but I think another part of the picture is what’s known as social desirability bias, or telling pollsters what you think they want to hear. I also would argue there’s likely a consistent problem polling gun owners, because many of them likely will remove themselves from any survey that asks questions about their gun ownership or views on gun issues. We have a lot of evidence in regards to social desirability bias being at play in gun control polling from the times gun control has appeared on ballot measures. One of the early measures was in Massachusetts, where a handgun ban managed to get on the ballot as Question 5 in the 1976 election year. Dave Kopel writes about that here:

The final poll, a few days before, had showed Question 5 with a 10-point lead. Everyone anticipated a long night waiting for the election results. Everyone was wrong.

Handgun confiscation was crushed by a vote of 69 percent to 31 percent. Of the approximately 500 towns in Massachusetts, only about a dozen (including Cambridge, Brookline, Newton and Amherst) voted for the ban. Even Boston rejected the ban by a wide margin.

That’s not the only time. A few years later in 1982, in California, the birth of the modern ban with grandfathering, then called a “handgun freeze” made its way on as Proposition 15. We know from the Violence Policy Center itself, and from this Politico article that the measure had polling support ahead of the election, where it went down to defeat 37-63%. Before anti-gun folks start to claim that, “Well, those were bans, and no one is proposing that,” we accelerate ahead to 1997, with Initiative 676 on the ballot of Washington State, which would have mandated training for handgun possession, licensing, and trigger locks. Again, it was polling way ahead at least a month out from the election, but went down to defeat 29% to 71%.

I believe social desirability bias in polling is real, and is ignored at politician’s expense.

Filibustering Gun Control

Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are planning to filibuster any gun control bills that come before the Senate. I’ve heard various stories that the private transfer ban will be part of the bill, and I’ve also heard it’ll be voted on as an amendment. I’m not certain which is true, or even if Harry Reid knows what it’s going to be yet. Even still, the filibuster threat is welcome, and is even being condemned by the White House. If my understanding of Senate Rules is correct, I believe this would prevent the bill from even being brought up for amendments. I’m not sure I agree with Katie Pavlich that this is a “brilliant move,” strategically, because I’d honestly like to get some of these clowns on record, but it’s hard to argue against playing it safe.

The Assault Weapons Ban: Death of Gun Control?

Professor Adam Winkler generally likes some gun control, but he’s one of the few people publishing and writing in this issue who takes our arguments seriously. I was happy to read a few days ago his article in the Daily Beast, pondering if the assault weapons ban killed gun control:

There was one certain impact of proposing to ban the sale of assault weapons: it was guaranteed to stir gun-rights proponents to action. Ever since Obama was elected, theyâ€™ve been claiming that he wanted to ban guns. Gun-control advocates mocked this claimâ€”then proposed to ban a gun. Not only that, the gun they were trying to ban happened to be the most popular rifle in America.

I’m glad someone who is not generally in our camp noticed what I bolded there. I can tell you that the 1994 ban is what started me on this path. Had it not been for that ban, you wouldn’t be reading this right now. Given the number of people I’m seeing my age and close to my age in this current fight, I’m apparently not alone. Many of us wanted the AKs and ARs pretty much because people who thought they were better than us told us we couldn’t have them. The problem with Winkler’s argument is this:

Yet itâ€™s harder for them to make a persuasive public case against background checksâ€”which primarily burden criminals and the mentally ill trying to buy gunsâ€”or magazine restrictions, which, in allowing people to have 10 rounds plus readily available, already-loaded replacement magazines, didnâ€™t interfere with self-defense.

It’s difficult only in the sense that a lot of gun owners are pretty rationally ignorant, and don’t really understand what expanded background checks mean. It is very difficult to define what constitutes a transfer is a way that doesn’t make ordinary behavior among gun owners legally risky or problematic. Also, magazine restrictions fall into the realm of people who think they are better than you telling you what you can and can’t have, and making preemptive self-defense choices on your behalf when they have no expertise or knowledge on self-defense.Â No, I can motivate just as many people to oppose a magazine ban as I can an assault weapons ban. Many more people have magazines that hold more than 10 rounds than have AR-15s or AKs, and don’t see any reason why the government should stack the deck against them in the rare situation they might actually need more than ten rounds. This isn’t the movies. Pistol rounds are poor fight stoppers, and it’s not like civilians have never before had to face multiple opponents.

Casey’s Shift on Gun Rights

Casey sailed into office based on Pennsylvanians tiring of Santorum, name recognition as the son of a former Governor, and a conservative position on guns and abortion. I am ashamed to admit I voted for Bob Casey in 2006, because Santorum’s social conservatism became too much for me to stomach. I appreciated Santorum’s position on guns, and thought he was the better candidate on that issue, but given that Casey answered an A questionnaire, I was willing to vote more on my non-gun issues that had developed with Santorum. If I had known Casey would abandon support for Second Amendment rights, I never would have voted for him.

Casey has turned out to be quite a disappointment. He’s a horrible campaigner, and has difficulty managing campaigns. He won re-election this time largely because of a bad schism within the GOP about who ought to be the leading candidate, a poor eventual choice of candidate, and the general implosion of the 2012 Republican Senatorial Campaign, thanks to the likes of Todd Akin. I believe Casey could be beaten handily by the right Republican candidate. He won by being “Not Rick Santorum” with name recognition, and won again by the sheer stupidity of the GOP. He did not win because he’s a stellar campaigner. He shouldn’t get so cocky in a state that still has considerably more gun owners than most other blue states.

Democrats Making the Right Tough Choice

The Hill notes:

The Senateâ€™s upcoming vote on the assault weapons ban is going to put vulnerable Democrats in a difficult spot.

Democrats facing tough reelection races will either attract the ire of the National Rifle Association or prominent gun control activists such as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I). A vote against the ban could spark primary challenges that could weaken Democrats in the general election.

I’m pleased to report another Senate Democrat is standing with us:Â Mark Pryor of Arkansas:

Iâ€™ve gotten a lot of questions about NYC Mayor gun ad. My response? I donâ€™t take gun advice from the Mayor of NYC. I listen to Arkansans.

— Senator Mark Pryor (@SenMarkPryor) March 25, 2013

The votes have not yet been cast, but I’m willing to thank Democrats who stand with the Bill of Rights and thwart Bloomberg and the White House. I think they will find they have made a wise choice, and I just hope they don’t get taken out by the Democrats sullying their brand by embracing gun control. Especially Pryor who is in one of the states targeted by Bloomberg:

The state totals for Bloomy buy so far: AR- $125K,AZ-$950K,GA-$710K,IN-$475K,LA-$133K,NC-$593K,ND-$150K,NV-$487K,OH-$602K,PA-$525K

— maggie haberman (@maggiepolitico) March 26, 2013

Some of those states are kind of laughable, but I think he’s playing the long game. Our response need to be to educate as many people as possible that the billionaire Mayor of New York (or former Mayor, as he will soon become) is behind this, and meddling in their state. States like North Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana don’t take kindly to the meddling Yankees, and I doubt the Mayor of New York City is a popular figure in many of those other states too. People don’t like plutocrats, and plutocrat ought to be the albatross we hang from Bloomberg’s neck.

This Speaks for Many of Us

I caught this video over at Ace of Spades the other night, and I think this guy channels how many of us feel:

The State of the Gun Rights

Seeing various articles in the media, like this one from Politico from Manchin, and also this one on McCain in The Hill, is that the proponents of gun control are clamoring for more leverage over key politicians in the closed-door negotiations by leaking stories like this to the media. Note that I am not suggesting we have nothing to worry about here, because these kinds of tactics work, and the White House is quite eager to avoid an embarrassing loss on his gun control agenda. NRA is continuing to say that it remains opposed to expansion of the background check system to cover private transfers and sales between the law abiding. I expect that to remain policy, even in closed-door negotiations. The Hill article offers an indication that Reid may include the “background check bill reported out of committee”Â as an amendment, which will likely fail.

We can expect some kind of bill to pass the Senate.Â For one, the gods of “something must be done” are going to be appeased, and secondly, the Democrats are going to want to offer the White House a face saving way out. That’s why it’s not surprising that both Bloomberg and Coburn think some kind of bill will pass. The question now is what that bill will look like. The longer this wears on, the better it’s likely to be for us. We have some indication of the direction it’s going. There’s probably some give and take on making that which is already illegal, more illegal (e.g. some kind of trafficking language), and probably also on the Graham/Begich bill which clarifies people offering an insanity plea in court are prohibited persons.

So where do we all come in on this? Call your Senators and tell them to vote against any new gun control bill, and be sure to especially to mention no banning of private transfers or sales. We know what that has nothing to do with background checks on sales at this point. The more Senators hear from us, the more leverage NRA and the other people negotiating on our behalf will have to ensure that when the kabuki is played out on the Senate floor, we come out relatively undamaged, and perhaps even get a thing or two in return. I am cautiously optimistic we’re going to come other farther ahead than I would have expected heading into the New Year, but now is definitely not the time for complacency. Even if we come out okay in this floor fight, that only means round one goes to us. Bloomberg and Obama are going to take us more rounds than that.

Round Limitation in New York: Round Two

Or is it ten?Â New York is probably going to let people buy 10 round magazines, after belatedly discovering that almost no firearms manufactures make 7 round magazines, nor would they be likely to just for a single state’s market. But you still will only be able to load seven rounds in them. Criminals will obviously follow this.Â Jacob appropriately mocks this situation.Â Cuomo’s popularity is still in decline, perhaps becauseÂ this makes him look stupid, which he is. They had to pass the bill for us to find out what was in it. Keep an eye on Hickenlooper’s ratings now too. Meanwhile, Governor Malloy in Connecticut is looking to ram through legislation using the same methodology Cuomo did, given that it’s proven difficult to get anything through using the normal democratic processes that require public hearings and give the public a chance to object.

Monday News Dump

With a fresh coat of spring snow on the ground, and more coming down for the next several hours, rather than dreaming of the White Easters, just like the ones I never knew, I’ll offer up some news:

Publicola takes a look at Hickenlooper’s flexible position on gun control. Very few politicians really care about this issue. People want to say it’s a third rail, but those in power sure don’t act like it, do they?

Joe takes on the Biden notion that lives are saved by reloading.

Congrats to SayUncle for 1000 posts of gun porn!Â I meant to link this sooner, but real life got in the way of blog.

The gun control groups are trying to make hay of the fact that NRA has been calling up its contact list to oppose gun control. Well, this is a Newtown fact you won’t see the anti-gun folks talking about.

The Second Amendment as understood by a Second Amendment scholar, on PBS.

Jim Carrey’s anti-vaccination hysteria has killed more kids than our guns. Twitchy has more on Jim Carrey.

Eugene Volokh is among the 100 most influential lawyers in America. Also on that list? Alan Gura.

Putting the cart before the horse when it comes to anti-depressents and people who go berserk.

The bells are tolling in Colorado, but not for us. This has to be made so, and it will take grassroots organization like we’ve never seen to get it done.

The Rise of the AR-15, in the Hartford Courant. A fair look at the rifle.