Can The Toomey-Manchin Compromise Get to 60?

Manchin and Toomey are going around on the morning talk show circuit. Toomey isn’t sure. Manchin, who always comes off to me like a hyperactive kid in need of some Ritalin, thinks they’ll get there. I would like to see this deal die. I don’t think the concessions made to us are real hot items, and even the other side is unhappy with it. They decided early on to go big or go home, and I’m fine at this point with sending them home.

MAIG Pulls Opposition Ads on Toomey

Story here at Politco. People have long said that gun control won’t bring any votes to the table, and that’s true, but politicians hate looking bad, and that’s one advantage that our opponents have when backed by someone with Bloomberg’s money. I’m in agreement with a commenter at Ace’s:

By the way Senator, this isn’t an election season. If this pansy runs from commercials NOW what will he do during his actual campaign?

Good question. I think Bloomberg is happy to have weakened Toomey. If Toomey thinks Bloomberg will sit out the 2016 election if there’s blood in the water, he’s lost his mind. BTW, the article over at Ace of Spades mentions a mental health provision that I think would be highly unacceptable, but given that we haven’t seen language yet, I’m not going to jump on it and declare it truth. But it’s something to keep an eye on.

NRA Statement on S.649

After reports today revealed that Toomey wouldn’t appear with Chuck Schumer at the press conference, NRA releases this:

Dear Senator,

I am writing regarding the National Rifle Association’s position on several firearms-related proposals under consideration in the Senate.

S. 649, the “Safe Communities, Safe Schools Act of 2013”, introduced on March 21, contains a number of provisions that would unfairly infringe upon the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding gun owners.  This legislation would criminalize the private transfer of firearms by honest citizens, requiring friends, neighbors and many family members to get government permission to exercise a fundamental right or face prosecution. The NRA is unequivocally opposed to S. 649.

In addition, the NRA will oppose any amendments offered to S. 649 that restrict fundamental Second Amendment freedoms; including, but not limited to, proposals that would ban commonly and lawfully owned firearms and magazines or criminalize the private transfer of firearms through an expansion of background checks.  This includes the misguided “compromise” proposal drafted by Senators Joe Manchin, Pat Toomey and Chuck Schumer.  As we have noted previously, expanding background checks, at gun shows or elsewhere, will not reduce violent crime or keep our kids safe in their schools.  Given the importance of these issues, votes on all anti-gun amendments or proposals will be considered in NRA’s future candidate evaluations.

Rather than focus its efforts on restricting the rights of America’s 100 million law-abiding gun owners, there are things Congress can do to fix our broken mental health system; increase prosecutions of violent criminals; and make our schools safer.  During consideration of S. 649, should one or more amendments be offered that adequately address these important issues while protecting the fundamental rights of law-abiding gun owners, the NRA will offer our enthusiastic support and consider those votes in our future candidate evaluations as well.

We hope the Senate will replace the current provisions of S. 649 with language that is properly focused on addressing mental health inadequacies; prosecuting violent criminals; and keeping our kids safe in their schools.  Should it fail to do so, the NRA will make an exception to our standard policy of not “scoring” procedural votes and strongly oppose a cloture motion to move to final passage of S. 649.

Should you have any questions on these issues, please do not hesitate to contact me at (202) 651-2560.

Sincerely,

Chris W. Cox

Which mentions that the drafters of this compromise bill were Toomey, Manchin and Schumer. Tomorrow it would appear to be game on, and we’ll see where the chips will fall.

Toomey’s Press Release

Toomey has some of the details of the deal with Manchin. It’s a bit of give and take on both sides if everything is as advertised; that is a real compromise, and not a compromise where they only get a smaller slice of my pie instead of a bigger one. Of course that doesn’t make me feel any better about the concessions, nor does it help that we do not have language yet for the Toomey-Manchin Amendment. The devil is often in the details, and “just trust me,” is asking too much when Schumer is involved in this whole thing. Hell, it’s asking too much by any politician.

I don’t think the anti-gun folks are going to be happy about this deal, even if some of them come out and try to make the best of it. I think Bloomberg will try to spin it as a good start, and declare victory. But Bloomberg has to be concerned that this deal is not reaching all private transfers, while simultaneously taking the bogeyman of “gun show loophole” and “internet sales” away from him. It’s possible they were approaching the needed votes on something far preferable to them, and are likewise viewing this concession as unnecessary.

Finally, consider that amendments to bills, as best as I understand Senate rules, only require a bare majority, rather than 60 votes. It requires 60 votes to invoke cloture on a bill, to end debate and have a vote. The Democrats can pass amendments without any Republican support. We will see how this all goes down, but we really do need to see the language of the bill.

Previous attempts to regulate gun shows have seriously overreached, and I’m very skeptical of how Internet sales could be regulated. What defines an Internet sale? If I IM my friend Jason and ask if he wants to buy one of my guns, do I have to go through an FFL now? Does it only apply to advertising for sale? What about a private message board on a gun club’s web site? As for gun shows, what exactly is a gun show? Is it a place where people gather to sell guns? Can a few friends looking over a collection I’m reducing constitute a show? If there’s a guy at a flea market selling a rifle, does that make it a gun show? Is a yard sale a gun show if there’s guns for sale? Is the parking lot also a show? What if you bring the gun to a show, but sell it at the gas station down the street? You can see where can potentially entrap people with language. I appreciate the concessions made to our side in this deal, but there’s quite a lot to be wary of, and I’m not going to say this is a win, am not willing, without language, to opine on how fair the trade is here.

Anti-Gun Reactions

I pondered with Sebastian this morning what the reaction from anti-gun advocates would be in response to the Manchin-Toomey deal if it really turned out that it left many private sales alone, pushed no other fronts of gun control, and possibly gave gun owners several benefits.

I admit to being thoroughly amused by the first Brady tweet following the press conference.


It kind of brands whatever happens in the Senate as Obama instead of Brady. Combine that with the fact that they still haven’t released a statement on the deal limitations yet, and I’m thinking they are none too happy.

As VSSA notes, CSGV is talking to the press about how they want Senate Democrats to ignore all the pundits warning them off hardline gun control measures and just pass it already. (Although they have opted to remain silent after the press conference and just promoted their protest against a filibuster.)

Remember that the White House told the gun control groups that they are not allowed to criticize anything in this debate. They are no even allowed to second guess anything publicly.

Now the question is whether the gun control groups have the nerve to pick a fight with the White House over the deal if the administration decides that they’ll take whatever Reid can manage to send over to the House. How much are they willing to risk being shut out of meetings where they will get to “feel” important?

MAIG, for their part, has decided to focus their attention on possible GOP presidential contenders in elections that are years away. That doesn’t exactly sound like they are jumping up and down in excitement there in Bloomberg’s office.

UPDATE: Just as I put this up, the Brady Campaign says they “are reviewing carefully.”

NRA’s Reaction to the “Deal” on a Gun Bill

It’s here. It really highlights the mixed bag from this morning’s news.

While the overwhelming rejection of President Obama and Mayor Bloomberg’s “universal” background check agenda is a positive development, we have a broken mental health system that is not going to be fixed with more background checks at gun shows.

Coverage of the Toomey-Manchin Gun Control Press Conference

Well, my first attempt to live blog today didn’t go so well when the Democratic gun control sponsors decided not to stream their press conference to the public after promising they would do so. With that, I’m moving on to the feds and their bill.

So far, we’ve just got lots of panning around the room looking at reporters.

Joe Manchin starts off, calling Pat Toomey his “good friend,” along with Chuck Schumer and Mark Kirk as being key to this gun control bill.

Manchin says there’s still a lot of work left to do. It’s a deal with Schumer, not a deal with Manchin. It’s not clear who is actually writing the bill.

Manchin says that we need a federal government commission to study violence.

Manchin is using the promotion words of anti-gun groups by calling this “gunsense.” He says that this bill is this “gunsense.”

He just keeps saying that it’s about keeping guns out of the hands of criminals and insane people, but won’t offer specifics at all.

Manchin still loves Pat Toomey, his “dear friend.”

Toomey is now speaking.

Toomey applauds his staff for their work on the bill – the same staff who were telling voters that Pat Toomey wasn’t working with Manchin at all. Trust.

Toomey says that there’s no gun control in background checks at all. He won’t volunteer what kind of issues he’s promoting other than lots and lots of background checks.

Toomey now claims he didn’t seek out working on gun control, but then immediately complains about how there was a “risk” that no gun control would pass. He says he reached out to Manchin & Kirk.

He now points out that background checks aren’t a cure for crime.

Toomey says that no records would be mandated from private citizens, but he won’t volunteer exactly what he means by requirements of background checks at gun shows and online.

Toomey claims that gun owners get benefits, but he refuses to say what they are.

This will be an amendment, so those of us outside probably won’t see any language.

Manchin says he’s “been in dialogue” with NRA, but he admits that he can’t actually speak for how the organization will react.

In taking questions, Manchin is just repeating the same things he said earlier in the press conference. He claims that he strengthened his own personal gun rights, but he still won’t say what he’s actually promoting.

Toomey was asked if his NRA ‘A’ rating even matters to him, whether he’s worried about it. He says he only cares about what people want.

Toomey is asked if he’ll get more Republicans between him & Kirk. Toomey admits he has absolutely no idea if there’s any other Republican who supports this.

Manchin has pledged to vote for the bill, no matter what it is, if his amendment is on it. Toomey says that because other amendments could be added, he won’t pledge to vote for it.

Manchin is specifically asked about private sales, and he just says that gun sales at shows and online will be covered.

Toomey is challenged on the benefit for gun owners. He just gives an example, not a list. It sounds like strengthening FOPA while driving. It supposedly fixes where active duty military can buy guns.

Toomey is then asked whether the driving protections are a “first step” toward national concealed carry reciprocity. Manchin jumps in and say, “YES!” Toomey more quietly says that he supports it.

I’m assuming that there’s some content the reporters have that we don’t because there’s something about concealed carry licenses protecting you from arrest at NY airports while traveling.

Manchin promises that when he gave the talking points to his political friends back home and they are fine with it.

Toomey goes to the Morning Call for the last question. She asks him if he’s bringing along House Republicans from the Philly suburbs along on this bill. He said that there is interest, but they want to know what’s really in the bill first.

Live Blogging the Pennsylvania Democratic Gun Control Press Conference

Pennsylvania State Representative Steve Santarsiero called for confiscation of semi-automatic rifles in December, but he’s since scaled back his legislative plans into “background checks.” This post will track his press conference to further restrict gun sales in Pennsylvania. Right now, we’re waiting on the live video link to start working.

UPDATE: So, um, still no press conference. The House Democrats are promoting it with a link, but there’s nothing at the link. D’oh!

UPDATE: Well, it looks like we little voters have been brushed aside in covering this gun control announcement. The presser started, as evidenced by media in the room:


Even though the House Democrats promised to stream it online, they have opted not to do turn on the streaming for this event.

Denying History

Several of you may have heard about the Connecticut student who was told to do a lesson denying that there’s an individual Second Amendment right to bear arms.

For those of you who didn’t catch the story I don’t mean that the text simply opts for the collective rights interpretation, I mean the teacher distributed a worksheet that completely denies history.

“The courts have consistently determined that the Second Amendment does not ensure each individual the right to bear arms,” the worksheet states. “The courts have never found a law regulating the private ownership of weapons unconstitutional.”

The worksheet, published by Instructional Fair, goes on to say that the Second Amendment is not incorporated against the states.

In the most generous interpretation of events, the teacher is using materials that are more than half a decade out-of-date and has simply opted not to keep up with current events or current curriculum. The less generous assumption is that the teacher is seeking out these false documents in an effort to deny history and purposefully lie to students. Either way, the school refuses to answer any questions about the situation or even provide a statement on whether they plan to stop purposefully giving out false information to students now that it has been brought to their attention.

Cam Edwards is hosting the father of this student on today’s Cam and Company at 4:20pm Eastern. I plan to tune in because, well, I was that pain-in-the-ass student who kept my teachers on their toes over stuff like this. :)

Cam did joke today when promoting his interview that he would love to see Dave Kopel be invited to respond to the class lesson. I just think it would be funny trying to picture the teacher arguing with Kopel that he wasn’t really in the SCOTUS building and sitting at the table during the Heller case – it is all simply a figment of his imagination.

On a related note, these are your public schools, folks.

UPDATE: Sadly, it doesn’t get much better at the college level with this report of a professor at a public university forcing her students to make anti-gun art espousing her personal views for her political crusade against firearms in direct violation of state law.