Month: February 2009

We are told the NRA are a bunch of ineffective weenies, who do nothing to fight for our gun rights, and exhibit demonstrably poor leadership on the issue.  Demonstrably poor leadership like capitalizing on Holder’s gaffe to actually ram a repeal of an “assault weapons” ban though an overwhelmingly Democratic controlled Senate.  It’s a local repeal, but if this passes the House in tact, and is signed by Obama, it’ll be legal to buy an AR-15 in DC with just a 4473 and NICS check.

The benefit of this, even if the gun rights language does not survive the conference committee, has been to force Senators, and soon House members, to put their cards on the table.  This lets us know far better where we stand in the 111th Congress than we did before.  Let’s look at some of our yes votes that were unexpected:

• Bayh (D-IN) – Not always friendly to guns, but voted with us.
• Bennet (D-CO) – We knew nothing about Bennet’s position on guns before this.
• Byrd (D-WV) – Byrd can be tricky on guns sometimes.  He was with us on this.
• Conrad (D-ND) – Not expected.  Good news.
• Dorgan (D-ND) – Also not expected.
• Feingold (D-WI)- Expected, but also can be tricky on guns.
• Gregg (R-NH) – He stuck with his fellow Republicans.  We applaud him.
• Hagan (D-NC) – F rated, so this is a real surprise.
• Landrieu (D-LA) – Very good for this C rated Senator.
• Lincoln (D-AR) – Excellent.
• McCaskill (D-MO) – Pleasant surprise.  F rated and AHSA endorsed.
• Pryor (D-AR) – Surprise
• Reid (D-NV) – Expected, but worthwhile to point out Reid is mostly pro-gun.
• Udall (D-CO) – Pleasant surprise
• Udall (D-NM) – Pleasant surprise
• Snowe (R-ME) – Held with party.  Unexpected.
• Specter (R-PA) – Expected, but likes to split with Rs often.
• Collins (R-ME) – Held with party. Unexpected.

Notables in the no column were Dick Lugar, the only Republican to vote against this, and Kirsten Gillibrand, who has now clearly calculated to retreat on gun rights a bit.  This is not to say the vote will be identical if an semi-auto ban comes up.  We’ll lose some of these yes votes, who represent politicians trying to split the middle on guns on an issue important to NRA, but not likely to be noted too heavily by the folks back home.  But we got the Senate on record, and soon the House.  That is tremendously valuable to us heading into the 2010 midterms.  We have to pick up pro-gun seats in 2010.  Don’t for a minute believe politicians like Obama, Pelosi, and their ilk won’t kneecap us at the earliest opportunity. The votes aren’t there right now, and we have to keep things that way.

For now, things are looking better than I thought. Congress didn’t just run from Holder’s remarks, they got in the car and peeled out in the opposite direction, choking him on burnt rubber.  This is not behavior politicians exhibit toward an ineffectual organization, especially after such a stunning blow in 2008.  But you know what?  I don’t credit NRA for this. They were just willing to exploit it on The Hill.  The credit goes to the millions of people getting active, buying guns, buying ammo, renewing their NRA memberships, getting concealed carry licenses, and generally engaging in activities that make politicians take notice.  NRA is nothing without engaged members, and at the end of the day, that’s what the politicians are really afraid of.  Let’s keep it that way.

Looks like both Pelosi and Reid are making it clear:

“Senator Reid would oppose an effort (to) reinstate the ban if the Senate were to vote on it in the future,” Manley told The Hill in an e-mail late Thursday night.

It was not immediately clear whether Reid would block the bill from the Senate, but his opposition casts serious doubt on its chances. Also, Manley noted that Reid voted against the ban in 1994 and again when it expired in 2004.

Don’t let this lull you into a sense of complacency.  We still have enemies in the Senate.  Diane Feinstein is vowing to continue fighting for a new assault weapons ban.  She won’t stop.  The progressives are formulating a plan to start replacing moderate and blue dog Democrats with solid progressives, and they will raise millions of dollars to do so.  The 2010 midterms are going to be vitally important.

Kirsten, Kirsten, why have thou forsaken me?   Gillibrand voted no on the DC gun rights amendment.  I think at this point, it is safe to say that my public advocacy for her is at an end.  In the battle to influence Gilly, and convince her to keep her A rating on the gun issue, gun owners in New York and elsewhere have lost, and the New York Times, Newsday, and Michael Bloomberg have won.

I do not regret my early advocacy for her.  She came out of the house with an A-rating and a solid, if not long record of being pro-gun, including supporting key issues like ATF reform, Tiahrt, Heller, DC gun rights, and other things.  She is still likely to be better than the likely Democratic or Republican alternatives.  New York is not Tennessee, Texas, or even Pennsylvania on the gun issue.  It will be a long road back to somebody like Al D’Amato for New York gun owners.

It is a stark lesson that principles often take a back seat in politics.  I’ve had it on good word from people who have dealt with Kirsten Gillibrand that she was a real believer in the Second Amendment, and I have little doubt she is, but she’s obviously more of a believer in winning elections.  She’s early in her political career, and has been elevated, with very little money in her campaign fund, to a state wide Senatorial office.  She’s facing the very real prospect of a primary challenge from the left, followed up by a tough battle against her Republican opponent.  She will likely never be more politically weak than she is right now, and she might, ultimately, end up defeated.  I still hold out the possibility that the Kirsten Gillibrand who emerges from all this, won’t be anti-gun, but for now, she’s on her own.  If gun owners in New York want to make the strategic move of supporting her because she’s better than the awful alternatives, that’s up to them, but she has a lot to make up to me before I’ll support her again.