How Close is Pennsylvania – Really?

I’ve been pretty vocal about people who are just absolutely convinced that the GOP candidates for Senate & President will win Pennsylvania. Usually this is because everyone they know – who just happens to lean right – is going to vote for candidates on the right. Shocking. It’s a matter of selection bias, and it isn’t based in reality.

However, there are some things I’m seeing that leave me wondering if the polls are actually showing a much wider gap than really exists. One is a graphic Mitt recently posted on Facebook that noted his campaign has made 5 times as many phone calls and knocked on 45 times more doors by this time in the campaign than McCain’s team had in 2008.

Consider that Mitt’s got that much higher turnout of grassroots energy and he hasn’t been spending the money here like McCain did. McCain was spending like Pennsylvania was a seriously competitive state. Both campaigns have largely been ignoring Pennsylvania. Though Mitt did test the waters a bit with a big rally in one of the Philly suburbs recently.

But then I also see tweets like this from the left.


It seems odd to me that the Obama campaign would spend the money to bring in New Yorkers for a state that they are so confident they’ll win – and win big.

One thing that these little signs could reflect is that the polls have poor turnout models. Yes, truly more people may like Obama over Romney in Pennsylvania. But, the Obama voters may not feel very motivated at all to vote. And clearly Romney’s campaign has more energy than expected.

This year may be the year of quiet campaigning in Pennsylvania. We’re seeing far fewer yard signs out this year than any other year – even non-presidential races. In fact, where there were previously dozens, now there are none. Yet, we still hear from most people on the right that they are more motivated to vote than they were before. We also have more gun owners interested in helping campaigns than we have had in the past. It’s all kinda weird. I think the final numbers have a potential to be far more interesting than the polls show. I won’t go so far as to say that Mitt will win Pennsylvania, but it could be a closer race than people expected based off polling.

Tweets Candidates Learn to Regret

When you’re a candidate running against an incumbent, there are usually qualities that people want to see in you – like the ability to identify and properly handle problems in a calm and reasonable manner. Because, let’s face it, if you’re elected, you’re going to be helping constituents with a lot of red tape and general bureaucratic messes. It would seem that Mike Starr, running for election to Minnesota’s 31st Senate seat, might not be the most qualified for handling problems in a calm and reasonable manner.

This is his very public response to getting a bad grade from NRA on his questionnaire:

It seems he has since tried to send the tweet down the memory hole, so I guess he learned that acceptable political rhetoric from a candidate rarely involves demands to “kiss [one’s] ass” directed at a major interest group for a key demographic.

Now, I’ve been involved with a campaign whose opponent was unfairly given an inflated grade and ignored in the endorsement process when it was a clear choice for gun owners in a winnable seat. You know how they handled it? Ask around and contacted NRA about the grades. Guess how NRA handled it? They reconsidered the race, acknowledged the need to revise the grade, and sent out postcards noting the correction. Don’t get me wrong, the internal folks were initially very upset with the situation. But, they didn’t react by cursing at NRA publicly.

On Starr’s website, he indicates he has previous grades of A & B from NRA. I went searching and found that he has run for office before, and his grade was already on the decline due to his answers on his questionnaires. More importantly, his grades were from years ago, not the most recent election cycle. The issue has fundamentally changed since he first answered a questionnaire. Heller, McDonald, the expiration of a federal gun ban – all monumental game changers that happened since he first answered NRA and his grade has fallen since those things started happening.

Now, I’m not arguing that NRA got it 100% right in this case because, clearly, I haven’t seen his responses. On the other hand, I can say that this type of outburst on behalf of his campaign account doesn’t exactly bode well for any gun owners who might want to talk to him about concerns about his positions. It looks like he would just tell them all to “kiss [his] ass” and walk away.

UPDATE: To Starr’s credit, his demand for gun owners to kiss his ass still stands. Twitter was just acting up and telling me the tweet was no longer there when I gathered the information for this post. Here’s the Twitter embed version:

NRA TV Ads for 2012

I noticed that someone in a volunteer group was asking about NRA advertisements, so I went to check out the PVF site to see if any were posted yet. It looks like they just started posting some this week. For those of you not in swing states, I thought you might like to see some of the ads.

In Virginia:

In Ohio:

In Florida:

Down Ticket Races to Watch in Pennsylvania

Bitter has a summary of the down ticket races to watch in Pennsylvania in regards to gun rights. Despite turning a number of the Philadelphia suburban ring county districts back to red in the 2010 election, I’m still very concerned about how long term trends look for the GOP. Gerlach has always been in tight races. It’s one of those things that just feels like it’s a matter of time. I am quite pleased that Kathy Boockvar, the Democratic Challenger of Mike Fitzpatrick, scored an A on her NRA questionnaire. While Fitzpatrick will undoubtedly carry an endorsement per NRA’s incumbent friendly policy, it is a sign that perhaps the Democrats don’t think running anti-gun candidates is a wise choice, even very close to Philadelphia. The worst thing that could happen to us would be for the Democratic Party in this area to become reflexively pro-gun-control. Not only does that run the risk that a good seat goes bad, it makes it easier for the Republicans to get away with just not being as bad as the other guy.

Watching the Twitter Debate Meltdown

Under their new leadership, the Brady Campaign has basically conceded that they aren’t planning to be serious players in the public policy space when it comes to actually lobbying for change to gun laws. They put their entire faith of any relevancy whatsoever in public policy in relying on the media since they hired an advertising executive to take over the struggling group. He was put to the test in his focus on getting a gun control question asked at tonight’s presidential debate in Colorado.

First, let’s say outright that not a single question was asked about gun control. In a swing state that was the site of the last major press event for the Brady Campaign, they put everything they have into getting a question inserted into this debate by the mainstream press moderator. It didn’t pay off.

Second, the rather interesting thing was to watch the meltdown on Twitter via the direct tweets from Brady and their retweets. Let’s watch how it unfolded…

Finally, the Brady Campaign staff must have been watching MSNBC after the debate. From what I’ve read tonight, the MSNBC talking point is that Obama’s failed performance was all the fault of Jim Lehrer. The Brady folks jumped on board with that blame game.

Clearly, their message is so relevant that not even a Chicago politician who has previously supported bans on handguns wants to touch their topic in a presidential campaign.

UPDATE: While they might have had a meltdown on Twitter, the Brady Campaign posted outright lies and fabrications on Facebook tonight. In fact, they made up their own alternate reality debate where gun control was the main focus of the debate.

One Take on Technology and the Debates

TechCrunch has a timeline of when they believe technology started to kill serious presidential debates. It’s worth your time to read because there are a lot of good one liners.

As someone who normally is wildly optimistic about the impact of technology on democracy, presidential debates are one area in which innovation has yielded nothing but mindless drivel to the presence of civil society.

Before any of you old timers start in with “in my day…” rants on how good it used to be, take a look at when they claim the decline in serious political debate at the national level began. It’s far earlier than any of you remember.

Sebastian has his liquor. I have my wine glass. We’re ready for tonight’s debate.

The New Tolerance

Dissent was patriotic, until it no longer fit the party line. That’s the message in one Philadelphia classroom this year.

During a casual dress day, a student who support Mitt decided to wear a shirt that expressed her support – a fully protected right of the student in any public school. However, she was informed by her teacher that her school was “a Democratic school.” She was also threatened with having her shirt destroyed while she wore it. She was ordered to remove the shirt while having it compared to support the KKK. Then, the teacher tried to kick the student out of the public school classroom for daring to have a dissenting opinion from the supposedly officially “Democratic school.”

Philadelphia taxpayers will be happy to hear that they not only have to pay this teacher, but now they have to pay another teacher to come in teach the class because even the school district doesn’t believe the student could possibly feel comfortable in the classroom anymore.

The article doesn’t note a teacher’s name, but I think the parents would be fully within their rights to name the teacher who threatened their daughter. Put it out there for all to see. This isn’t a case of one inappropriate statement, these were threats and attempts at retaliation against a public school student just for having a different political opinion – something that has nothing to do with math class.

A House Divided

A bit of a back and forth between Profs. Reynolds and Althouse on Instapundit over the Daily Caller’s latest video, and her own blog, is interesting. It’s very rare that I find myself in disagreement with Glenn Reynolds on a topic, but in this case I have to agree with Ann Althouse. I think to any extent that conservatives drag racial issues into this election, it will benefit the Obama Campaign, even if objectively you might have a point. The reason is, because as Prof. Althouse puts it:

Politics, like any other human endeavor, entails human emotion, and unless you want to turn away from politics altogether, you have to play within reality that exists. The emotions around race are deep and complex. I recommend not toying with them. Move to something more optimistic and positive.

If there’s anything true about how we approach issues of race in this country, it is almost never with objectivity or rationality. It is a touchy subject, because there is a lot of awful history there we’re not that distant from. I get that a lot of people want to show that Obama isn’t the post-racial President he was sold to the public as, but playing the race card is playing with fire, and we’re best leaving that topic alone. There are plenty of criticisms of the President that don’t involve Rev. Wright or issues of race.

It’s Debate Night

Mitt and Barry go at it starting at 9PM EDT. Will guns be brought up as a topic? What are your thoughts. I’d suggest that Obama and Romney both would likely prefer it not, but I think there’s a good chance it will. The Brady folks obviously thinks this too, or they wouldn’t be making such a big deal about it. One thing is for sure, if it is mentioned, expect Brady to spin it in some way as to play up their influence on the public debate.