Bitter and I canvassed several neighborhoods for free. To these people, I say equal pay for equal work:
“I want my money today! It’s my money. I want it right now!” yelled one former campaign worker.
So much for civic duty.
Year: 2008
Philadelphia Metro Area Breakdown
I’ve been analyzing the election results for Philadelphia and its suburbs. It paints a picture of low Republican turnout, a gradual eroding of the Republican base over the last four years, and huge gains in Democratic registration which seems to have rather obviously helped Barack Obama.
| Votes for Party Candidates for President | Difference | |||||||
| Year | County | Democrat | Republican | Year | Democrat | Republican | Difference Dem | Difference Rep |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | 542,205 | 130,099 | 2008 | 574,042 | 113,034 | 31,837 | -17,065 |
| Delaware | 162,601 | 120,425 | 179,949 | 109,766 | 17,348 | -10,659 | ||
| Bucks | 163,438 | 153,469 | 178,345 | 149,860 | 14,907 | -3609 | ||
| Montgomery | 222,048 | 175,741 | 249,493 | 163,030 | 27,445 | -12,681 | ||
| Chester | 109,708 | 120,036 | 135,150 | 112,266 | 25,442 | -7770 | ||
| Voter Registration Statistics | ||||||||
| Year | County | Democrat | Republican | Independent | Year | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
| 2004 | Philadelphia | 796,033 | 175,434 | 90,879 | 2008 | 799,663 | 145,387 | 86,063 |
| Delaware | 131,317 | 213,030 | 42,327 | 157,301 | 188,924 | 39,031 | ||
| Bucks | 173,803 | 208,639 | 69,513 | 185,407 | 181,701 | 60,496 | ||
| Montgomery | 214,223 | 268,755 | 81,704 | 247,881 | 237,880 | 76,187 | ||
| Chester | 98,765 | 170,419 | 55,961 | 113,315 | 146,956 | 46,598 | ||
| Registration Difference | |||
| County | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
| Philadelphia | 3,630 | -30,047 | -4,816 |
| Delaware | 25,984 | -24,106 | -3,296 |
| Bucks | 11,604 | -26,938 | -9,017 |
| Montgomery | 33,658 | -30,875 | -5,517 |
| Chester | 14,550 | -23,463 | -9,363 |
Looking at the numbers, Philadelphia actually did not have phenomenally high number of newly registered Democrats. But turnout was higher, but not much higher, than in 2004. One can also see that Republican turnout was depressed in several suburban counties, and in Philadelphia. Only Bucks managed to turn out in comparable numbers to 2004, but it wasn’t enough to sway the county. This strikes me as a group of voters who are just particularly not excited to be Republicans, and to get out to support Republican candidates. Pretty clearly, we had Republicans voting for Obama in larger numbers than we could afford.
This also shows the suburbs are bleeding Republicans. In many cases, Republicans switched registratoin to vote in the primary, but it doesn’t seem like they are planning to come back to the party, or that they voted for McCain. The GOP is in a lot of trouble in the Philadelphia suburbs, and if we don’t start getting more registered Republican voters, we’re finished as a traditional Republican stronghold. It might already be too late.
The Palin Effect
The Campaign Spot shows us numbers that indicate Palin delivered for the Republican ticket, and talks about her future in politics.  I would like to see her stay on the national stage, so we can get to know her better. I have my disagreements with her on some social issues, but I don’t think she’s the kind of social conservative who will want to shove her social values down everyone else’s throats. I’m hoping she can develop into the kind of political personality that can hold the base together, and appeal to more conservative independents.
Bad Day for New York Gun Owners
It was a bad election day for New York gun owners. Tom King says:
I expect to see the following proposed legislation in both houses of state government shortly after the start of the 2009 legislative session Smart Gun, expanded COBIS, Micro Stamping of shell casings, an expanded assault weapons ban, reduction of magazine capacity, mandatory storage/insurance and renewable pistol licenses with very limited concealed carry. It is not a pretty scenario but it is not untenable.
Gun owners in New York State are going to need some help. One thing I would encourage of New York gun rights activists is that it is possible to work within the Democratic Party. We have some very anti-gun urban Democrats in Pennsylvania too, but we also have a lot of pro-gun Democrats, who are good on our issue. Unfortunately, one of them is John Murtha, but on guns, Murtha has been on our side. Sometimes you have to work with the political circumstances political fortunes stick you with.
Common Sense in the Bay State
However, the public and lawmakers should not, on the basis of an extraordinarily rare accident, rush to enact new laws that may not advance gun safety.
Reacting to the tragedy, Rep. Michael Costello, D-Newburyport, declared his intention to file a bill to ban anyone under 21 from firing an automatic weapon. That proposal is absurd on its face: Young men and women, after all, enlist in the nation’s armed forces and use automatic weapons
The rest of it is equally reasonable. I’m glad the Telegraph is above hysterics.
Coalition By The Numbers
There’s been a lot of talk in the comments about how Republicans need to do this or that so that their political outlook will match up perfectly with whatever pet issues the commenter finds appealing. This is no way to build a coalition. The question at hand is what the Republican coalition looks like now, and how to build it back to a majority coalition. Right now, the Republican Party is a coalition of:
- Religious and value voters
- Nationalist conservatives, or national greatness conservatives
- Sportsmen
- Fiscal conservatives who want smaller government.
Each of these categories is, itself, contain a bunch of subcoalitions. But these are the basic categories I’ll enumerate for this exercise. Jettison one, you no longer have a majority. Bush essentially lost the coalition by catering heavily to 1 and 2, throwing a few bones to 3, and doing his level best to pretend 4 isn’t that important. Bush basically cut taxes, and then told 4 to take a hike. The other problem is that 4 are often not keen on 1’s social agenda, and many have migrated to the Democraic Party, no real bastion for 4s issues, but when 4 sees no difference between the parties, they will vote on social issues. This is how Republicans have lost the Northeast and the coastal West.
But here’s the rub: the folks in 1 vote, in huge numbers. Their turnout machine is unparalleled. Mike Huckabee was a long shot, but with basically only the religious vote, he managed to take several southern states in the primaries. John McCain is a solid 2, and for those that think paleoconservatism is the path to the future, McCain won the nomination with pretty much only the 2 vote, and enough 3 and 4 who are still left, because Romeny didn’t really inspire. You don’t win elections without 1 and 2. So to quote SayUncle: It’s time to put on our big boy pants, and come up with a platform that keeps the coalition together.
The religious voters in the Republican party need to understand that they live in a secular country, and that younger voters aren’t as religious as their parents. Those are just the breaks. You can’t legislate your way out of that. Amending constitutions isn’t going to fix it. But by the same token, the 2s, 3s, and 4s of the coalition need to accept some value issues in the Republican platform in order to get the religious vote to turn out and work for the coalition. If the 4s want to build a coalition without 1s, they have to create a turnout machine that surpasses that of the religious vote. Unfortunately, that requires more work than most 4s are willing to put in.
Once you get involved in electoral politics, it becomes readily apparently why libertarians have no seat at the table: they don’t bring anything to it. That’s what has to change if they want a bigger voice.
Involvement
David and I might disagree on a lot tactics wise, but he’s absolutely right about this:
We expect politicians to champion our rights, but how many of us make it worth their while to do so on such a hot button issue–one that is radioactive in most urban locales? Yes, true, a principled person does not shrink from hoisting his colors, but most politicians, even the ones who vote our way the majority of the time, view it as but one of many issues. And even though we don’t like to hear this, most constituents do not consider gun rights their major concern.
If that’s to change, we can’t elect someone to do it for us. Representative government doesn’t mean we abdicate our own initiative and go back to sleep.
He’s absolutely right, and gun owners don’t do nearly enough to help out politicians that support them. It’s going to be very rare to get true believers in politics, but we do have some. We even have some in my district here in Bucks County. Yet I would have been happy to have even a dozen dedicated volunteers.
How the Second Amendment Fared
Dave Kopel reports it’s not a disaster, and makes this note about the presidency:
President. Based on past record, certainly a -1. One important difference between our last Democratic President and our next one is the latter has shown himself to be much more self-disciplined. Accordingly, it is possible that he will not waste his political capital on a reckless culture war against gun owners, as President Clinton foolishly did.
So perhaps President Obama will spend his political capital elsewhere, and be a -0.1 President on the gun issue. The approach would be in line with the positive, unifying themes that Obama presented on victory night in Iowa last January, and with his eloquent victory speech tonight.
I don’t know if President Obama will be so temperate. But anyone who fears for the worst can still hope for the best.
We must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. 2010 will be important for us.
Barack’s Insurance Policy
Steven Den Beste has an excellent, and serious post about this election. But I love his update:
One other good thing: no one will be spinning grand conspiracy theories about this administration’s Vice President being an evil, conniving genius who is the true power behind the throne.
Joe Biden is Obama’s insurance policy. He’s better protection for him than a whole legion of Secret Service agents.
Quote of the Day
Anyway, it’s not the end of the world, and this too shall pass. You’ll get over it. And if you wait long enough, the Democrats will screw themselves, as parties in power always do, and it will once again be your turn to fuck everything up royally.
Very true.