I grow tired of seeing Canadian crime rates presented as evidence for the effectiveness of gun control, such as in the LA times article from yesterday. I meant to address this, but it was one of those things that took more time to put together than I had. International comparisons are always going to be suspect, because of the different ways that different countries count and categorize crimes. However, since the other side is fond of these comparisons, we can’t just summarily dismiss it. It seems reasonable to me that we should do as much as possible to compare like populations, and contain our variables to just the differing law as much as possible. It seems reasonable in this case to compare American states with their nearest Canadian providence in that regard. For this I will use statistics from the FBI, as well as some Canadian statistics.
Canadian Province | Violent Crime Rate | Murder Rate | Bordering States | Violent Crime Rate | Murder Rate |
New Brunswick | 256 | 0.4 | Maine | 118 | 2.4 |
Nova Scotia | 307 | 1.3 | |||
Quebec | 298 | 1.2 | |||
Vermont | 136 | 2.7 | |||
New Hampshire | 157 | 1.0 | |||
Ontario | 277 | 1.4 | New York | 398 | 4.3 |
Michigan | 502 | 5.4 | |||
Manitoba | 629 | 4.5 | Minnesota | 263 | 2.1 |
Saskatchewan | 671 | 3.0 | North Dakota | 167 | 0.5 |
Alberta | 389 | 3.1 | Montana | 258 | 2.4 |
British Columbia | 407 | 2.7 | Washington | 331 | 2.9 |
Yukon | 722 | 9.1 | Alaska | 652 | 4.1 |
Rates here are per 100,000, and I tried my best to make the Canadian and American violent crime statistics use the same types of crimes. You will notice on the Canadian stats, there is a “Violent Crime” stat which is way way higher than any US state, because the Canadian government counts many crimes as violent that we do not. But the Canadian government lists statistics for crimes which are very similar to what the FBI uses. I also did not include Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, even though they technically share a border with Canada, because it’s a lake border, and our respective peoples would not reasonably travel without transiting through another state/province. Nova Scotia is counted because there’s ferry service from Maine.
When you break them down like that, it looks pretty different, eh? What conclusions can be drawn? For one, the US states that compare least favorably to their nearby Canadian provinces are the ones with the strictest gun laws (New York & Michigan). Interestingly, it shows that rural Western Canada, which has a stronger gun culture than the east, shows an opposite pattern from the US, with higher violent crime rates and murder rates. Yukon and Alaska are both more violent than average, probably due to the fact that the industries in these respective jurisdictions tend to attract young males, who are more prone to criminal activity.
Overall, Ontario compares favorably to New York and Michigan. But most of the other states have lower violent crime rates and murder rates to their respective Canadian provinces. Whatever conclusions you might want to draw from the numbers, I don’t think that gun control laws is a major factor here can be among them.