Jacob wonders if moderate Dems could be the key to reciprocity. I think in the Senate, maybe. I think we would have enough to invoke cloture, but probably not enough to override a veto. We have 54 Republicans in the Senate. You can kiss Mark Kirk’s (R-IL) vote goodbye. That means we need 7 Democrats to invoke cloture. I think we have that. But that doesn’t get us to 67 to override a veto.
The bigger problem is going to be the House. How many pro-gun Dems are left? Not many. You need 290 votes to override a veto, and there are 246 GOP votes. Of course, you don’t get all 246. You can write off Peter King (R-NY) and Chris Smith (R-NJ). At least one of those GOP seats resigned already due to a guilty plea on federal charges. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Pat Meehan (R-PA) are two squishes I would be concerned about in that vote, especially Fitzpatrick because not intending to run for his seat again in 2016, and thus no longer has to face voters.
So that gets us down to 241 Republicans likely on board, but probably there’s some I’m missing, so we’ll say 238. That leaves us having to find 52 Democratic votes to override Obama’s veto. I think we can count on maybe 10 in the House. I’m not even sure that many, I’m not sure what all pro-gun Dems we lost in the last election. But it’s definitely not 52. So Obama’s veto will hold in the House.
Now, I think we ought to pass National Reciprocity, and make him veto it. So I’m not saying it shouldn’t be pushed and voted on in the 114th Congress. But I wouldn’t be unrealistic about what we can expect. I don’t think we have enough to get an override, but we’ll see. The blue dog pro-gun Democratic is a critically engendered species in Congress by this point.