New Jersey’s Upcoming Elections


Today is Tuesday. Tuesdays are when people vote. Except in New Jersey in 2013. Wednesday is the day to vote for those who are interested in the special Senate election.

Cory Booker still has a double digit lead over Steve Lonegan, but that’s been falling lately. Being on a Wednesday in October with plenty of headlines about other national issues, that means the turnout may be key to who wins instead of typical polls.

I’ll be honest, I don’t like Lonegan. But, if I lived in New Jersey, I’d vote for him. The fact is that Cory Booker is going to be a vote for every gun control bill that ever makes it up for a vote. He’ll probably sign on as a sponsor to some of the most extreme gun control fantasy bills as well. So, with that in mind, the best vote on the gun issue is Lonegan. While the numbers point to a clear Booker win, it’s the ability to turn out motivated voters that may make a difference in the final tally over any turnout models the pollsters are currently using.

19 thoughts on “New Jersey’s Upcoming Elections”

      1. That’s actually a big benefit to turning out the vote for Lonegan. Even if Booker wins, if the margin is much closer than it “should” be for New Jersey, then he may well end up keeping Booker from being the next “anointed” one.

    1. I don’t think a senator has to live in the state he represents. Take a look at Dick Lugar, he hadn’t lived in IN since the 70’s but kept getting on the ballot and getting elected.

      1. Lugar maintained “on paper” Indiana residency.

        It just happened to be a place he did not live in and rarely set foot in.

      2. Maybe you are thinking of congressmen. They don’t have to live in the district they represent. They still have to live in the state.

  1. Off topic, have I mentioned that every time I read your URL I think “Pagan Gun Blog”?

    I dunno, it amuses me.

  2. “But, if I lived in New Jersey, I’d vote for him. The fact is that Cory Booker is going to be a vote for every gun control bill that ever makes it up for a vote.”

    That is a tough call, that I’m glad for you and me is only a hypothetical, because the fact is that Steve Lonegan is going to be a vote for every authoritarian loonies’ bill that ever makes it up for a vote. And I’m not convinced that, like most social conservatives, he won’t actually do relatively little — or nothing — to advance the RKBA, but will at best be a reasonably dependable vote to defend it. The only question is, which candidate will leave us less free. Take your pick, and contribute to our net loss in individual liberty.

    1. Oh, I would totally trust him on a gun vote. Seriously, I would. I just really, really do not like him. My reasons are many, and not all are based on the fact that I live in political reality. Regardless, it’s nearly impossible for me to imagine a situation where he would sell us out on a gun vote. I might not like him, but I’ll be fair to him.

      1. A question I ask myself — and I don’t always get the same answer — is, “If this candidate had to choose between winning a decisive victory on ‘Conservative Hot Button Issue X’ or ‘defending our gun rights’ against a bitter defeat — no alternatives, no somewhere in the middle available — which would they choose?” In other words, what is really important to them, whether in their ideological gut, or because one issue has a bigger and more determined voting constituency than the other. Usually when I look into their backgrounds, I find that if they have evidence of a committed, drop-dead dedication to an issue, it is Conservative Hot Button Issue X, with gun rights appearing along the way as an “Oh, that too,” since it is on the Conservative De Riguer Laundry List of positions, and more or less mandatory for conservative candidates, once they have begun to contemplate public office.

        Steve Lonegan? I don’t know, because I haven’t spent a lot of time on him, given that he isn’t our problem (in Pennsylvania), yet. I’m sure he knows the rap on all the expected issues.

        I just can’t help thinking about Good Conservative Pat Toomey.

        1. For example, I am not going to contend that this is the most comprehensive source, but it would seem that while Mayor of Bogota, NJ, he put a lot of energy into union-busting, and some into “Official English,” but I’m not aware of any energies expended on behalf of his town’s gun owners. Correct me if I have not searched far enough, and I am wrong about that. We of course know his pronouncements about abortion.

          1. I actually think that’s looking for too much on guns, personally. Mayors of New Jersey towns really don’t have much control over state gun laws. I also can’t personally think of much that’s worth doing at that level, but maybe I’m just not thinking creatively enough.

            1. I’ll bet if you thought long enough, you’d come up with something useful to do about guns, long before you hit on “Official English” as a worthwhile initiative to spend your time on, as mayor. :-)

    2. The chance to get better candidates is in the primaries. Once the primary is over, you go to the general election with the candidate you’ve got, not the one you want. To paraphrase. :-P

      If nothing else, SCOTUS confirmation votes are significant. Does a “R” after their name guarantee a good SCOTUS pick or confirmation vote? No. Does it increase the odds of a good SCOTUS pick? Probably. I’m not aware of many higher court judges selected and confirmed by Democrats who hews anything close to the “strict constructionist” interpretation of the Constitution that I suspect most readers of this site buy in to. I can think of several nominees supported by the political right who do.

      As we’ve seen with Woolard, the Court is not riding to our rescue. And as we saw with the Obamacare vote, the Roberts court is going to let us as a people make our own mistakes. But at least the current court is not willing to gut the 2A. I can easily imagine a court that would take cert in Woolard and decisively rule against us, gutting the 2A, with but one or two changes in its membership.

  3. Seriously. What is the problem with Lonegan? Here is a conservative who has narrowed the lead against a Democrat in a solid blue state. This was written off a while ago by Republicans. Now it is at least moderate very competitive.

    This is a conservative pro-gun candidate. What is the problem?

    1. Because, like most politicians, his position is largely dependent upon how much personal/local gain it gets even at the expense of others or when it seems to be conflict with other positions. (One issue directly related to his elected background experience is using local tax dollars to fund lobbying efforts for state & federal government to get more money/more government control out of those larger governments. In other words, he’s been perfectly fine taking taxpayer funds to fund lobbyists to demand more taxes from those same taxpayers. That’s not very conservative.) Based on what I know, I think there’s some truth to Andy’s concerns that aren’t directly gun related. I personally suspect that if you cloak an argument for some kind of government intrusion in national security or morality, he’s more likely to support it without serious questions, even when it seriously intrudes on the personal freedoms of citizens. (I’m open to being proven wrong on those concerns.) Also, if you’ve ever seen Anytown, USA, you’ll know he can be quite the jerk** for no good reason. But then again, he is very New Jersey, maybe that’s just the standard. I was also troubled by the things he was reportedly promising to some (apparently very gullible) gun owners in his last election efforts. What I heard was seemingly very snake oil salesman, even for a politician. Even for a New Jersey politician.

      Like I said, if I lived in New Jersey, I’d turn out and vote for the guy tomorrow. I realize that you don’t personally have to like every candidate who might better represent your interests in any given election. I also realize that I won’t agree with every single candidate on every single position. You’ve read this blog long enough to know that I make those kinds of compromises all the time without complaint. It should say something that I’m willing to reiterate how much I personally dislike Lonegan, even though I’d vote for him given the reality of the particular election in New Jersey.

      **I felt like being generous in my description there.

  4. I really do not know much about Lonegan. But Glen Reynolds of Instapundit said he liked him. Glen’s views and mine coincide a lot so I take his word and If I lived in NJ would vote for Lonegan.

  5. I guess it would be nice if we could grow the perfect candidate in a lab and get him elected, but lets stay in the real world. Lonegan is about the best we can hope for in a deep blue state like New Jersey. Wishing otherwise will not make it so.

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