Howard Nemerov has some excellent analysis of the UN’s gun data, and notes that it does not jive with their purported agenda of small arms control. I did some quick analysis of the same data about a month ago, but Howard’s is more thorough. I did not have time to look at suicide data, but he did and found no correlation.
International comparisons are always difficult because of how different countries measure crime. One must always be careful not to assume correlation is causation, but that’s never stopped our opponents from drawing conclusions that make them feel good.
5 thoughts on “Thorough Analysis of UN Gun Data”
Wow, fascinating and damning evidence against the gun-grabbers for sure! I love how they’ll be the first to tell you that the US is the laughingstock of the world for our gun culture and high “gun death” rate, but if you ever show this data to some US progressive, they’ll be quick to tell you that they are just dealing with “gun deaths” here in the US. And they accuse us of redirecting the argument…
It is true that correlation is not causation.
But look at the flip side of the statement. Lack of correlation is a strong indicator of lack of causation.
For example, there is no correlation between states’ Brady grades and state homicide or violent crime rates. It is therefore fair to assume that the laws Brady favors have no causal relationship with these crimes. With absolute fairness, you can at least say that there is no evidence to support the notion that Brady laws reduce crime.
Guess I’ll be seein’ ya at the NRA convention after all. With David Codrea in tow too.
The major problem with the UN numbers is the source. How accurate do you think the result would be if you called your local cop shop and asked the chief how many guns there are in town? Or if you called the Brady bunch and asked how many guns are used in crimes in the United States.
Now, complicate matters by asking those questions in Europe, where more than three million WWII guns and billions of rounds of ammo are unaccounted for. And where people are even more touchy about answering questions about what guns they own than Americans.
From some accounts, one French family in three has a Mauser or Walther hidden in the flowerbed, and a case of cartridges to fit. Italy will have fireworks in a couple of weeks, much of it from unregistered guns. And so on and on.
The bottom line? There are very many more guns out there than the UN recognizes, and the correlation between more guns and less crime is far more marked than the UN data shows.
Related article, published in Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy, by Kates and Mauser.
This is a hard-hitting paper.
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