Israel Planning Attack on Iran?

From around the blogosphere, we’re hearing reports again that Israel plans to strike Iran first with nuclear weapons. I have my doubts that Israel would do this, and I suspect this was leaked as a way to bolster the diplomatic effort underway to get Iran to give up it’s nuclear program. If you view it along side plans to move a second carrier battle group into the Persian Gulf, I think that’s the most likely scenario. Diplomacy without a real threat of military force is just a bunch of talk, and without it, the Iranians have no reason to concede anything to us.

But there are numerous tactical problems involved with an attack by Israel on Iran. Israel lacks the in-flight refueling capability to project power that far away from the Levant, and no Arab country would allow Israel basing rights to use for the attack. So I would be very surprised if these leaked plans are for real.

2 thoughts on “Israel Planning Attack on Iran?”

  1. Israel has bombed Iran before, back in the 1980’s when they had nuclear facilities. They

    see Iran having nuclear weapons as an extremely dangerous thing for them, so dangerous

    that then they felt the situation called for immediate action.

    If they don’t have the means to do it now, they will find a way as fast as possible, I am

    convinced of that.

  2. It was Iraq’s Osiris nuclear facility that they bombed back in the 80s, which didn’t present nearly as many problems for them as attacking Iran today. The Israeli strike on Iraq was called “Operation Opera”, and was brilliantly executed.

    Today they’d have to transit around the Arabian Peninsula, because it would be very likely they’d be detected flying over Arabia, because they’d have to refuel in midair somewhere along the way. Iran is too far out of the range of Israel’s F-15s and F-16s to bomb without cooperation from an Arab country, Turkey or Kurdistan, which is not likely to be forthcoming.

    Israel’s only option right now would be a strategic nuclear strike, which would kill millions of people, and make Israel an international pariah. Without an aircraft carrier or long range bombers, Israel is kind of stuck having to rely on the United States to deal with the problem.

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