Demographic Talk

Cam Edwards asks:

Gun control groups massively outspent Second Amendment organizations in the Virginia elections that brought Democrats control of the state legislature, dropping at least $2.5 million into more than a dozen races in suburban swing districts. Yet we hear all the time about the NRA’s spending, and how politicians who support the Second Amendment are really just “in the pocket of the gun lobby.” Why shouldn’t the same be said of politicians who rake in even more cash from anti-gun groups?

Because it’s OK when they do it. I’ve said before, they aren’t against money in politics. They are against your money in politics. The issue for Bloomberg was that in his early efforts, it became apparent Virginia would only be bought at a higher cost. All Bloomberg had to do was boost spending and wait for the demographics of Northern Virginia to tip the state.

What demographics, you might add? For 40% of people in Fairfax County, English is not their first language. It has been flooded by new immigrants. Most of those immigrants are going to be working in service jobs for federal workers and government contractors who are the main source of income for the areas. Other than the defense industry, those demos aren’t exactly rich farming grounds for Republicans. And the Dems have historically owned immigrant communities. These aren’t favorable demographics for gun rights. Sorry, but that’s just the truth.

The bluing of the Philadelphia suburbs is another beast. One factor is the ring counties are also dealing with out-migration from cities where Dems routinely get 80% of the vote or more. The other is the shifting political coalition plays against the GOP here.

Blue collar workers are traditionally the democratic voters in the ring counties. Educated upper middle class households used to form the GOP’s core base around here, and that has shifted to being the core Dem base. That trend started with Bill Clinton. While the blue collar vote is changing, it’s not changing fast enough to offset losses. Upper middle class voters are leaving the GOP faster than blue collar workers are coming over to it. The GOP leadership that have held power here, really since the Civil War, have also not adapted well; they are still partying like it’s 1985 and running candidates that appeal to their old base. Fitzpatrick held on because the Dems ran an awful candidate against him. That luck likely won’t hold.

“But Western PA has almost all gone red!” That’s great, but Western PA is also depopulating. Pennsylvania’s demographics haven’t changed even a fraction of what Virginia’s has. But gun owners are going to have to get their acts together to fight off what’s coming, because the fact is when elites decide they prefer a certain policy, say, gun control, they will usually get their way eventually. I don’t for a minute believe gun rights is a lost cause, but we can’t keep doing what we’ve been doing and expect to keep winning.

12 thoughts on “Demographic Talk”

  1. “Fitzpatrick held on because the Dems ran an awful candidate against him.”

    Don’t discount that he has an awful lot of suburban liberals snowed. A couple years ago I had a chance to eavesdrop on one of their gatherings, and was listening to sentiments like “Oh, I’m sure we can work with him. . .so-and-so’s mother used to babysit him and says he was such a sweet little boy…” (I had a hard time not rushing into the room and saying “yeah, but he grew up to be an FBI agent and a congressthing…”)

    Meanwhile, despite being a “No Party,” I made the mistake of contacting him by email one time, so during the run-up to Tuesday’s election, I was getting emails from the GOP that could have been composed by Angry Dana and Ackerman-McQueen.

    The guy is playing both sides of the street plus its top and bottom. Meaning he’s a lying sack of shit. Lying sacks of shit can hold office forever.

  2. “Pennsylvania’s demographics haven’t changed even a fraction of what Virginia’s has.”

    When I was checking out the demographics of those “western counties” yesterday, I found one was over 98 percent white, with a median age of 40; and another was 94.4 percent white, with a median age of 38. But, those median ages are heavily skewed (IMO) by a large percentage of the populations being under 18 — kids in school, who will likely leave when they graduate. If you looked at only adults, the median ages would be considerably older. In other words, counties of “old, white, men” that certainly don’t reflect America as it is, anymore. (As an old white man I don’t have to like that any more than I like looking in the mirror; I just have to recognize the truth of it.)

    1. “When I was checking out the demographics of those “western counties” yesterday, I found one was over 98 percent white, with a median age of 40; and another was 94.4 percent white, with a median age of 38”

      Those racial statistics suggest those counties may be actively hostile to non-whites. You would think a depressed area with lower cost of living would be attractive to at least some of the poor, non-white population from other areas.

  3. This is the “Glorious Defeat” the NRA-ILA wanted, so they can send out the clarion call for more donations. Protect your rights by giving us money.

    But why did northern Virginia demographics change?

    “For 40% of people in Fairfax County, English is not their first language. It has been flooded by new immigrants.”

    the three most common languages in Fairfax county, VA are:
    1) New York
    2) Spanish
    3) English

    in that order.
    It’s not the refugees from Spanish speaking countries, it’s the refugees from New York. The ones who get here after fleeing northern statism, and realize they miss the totalitarian control of the city/state.

    Got a 35mph speed limit on your street? Can’t have that, got to whine and complain until speed bumps are put in and the speed limit lowered to 25.

    And bicycle lanes. Must. have. bicycle lanes. Everywhere. Even 20 miles outside of anything close to a city. because everyone rides a bike in NYC, AMIRIGHT?

    got a neighbor who likes to entertain? can’t have that either, got to complain about parking, noise, smoke form the grill.

    spy someone with a gun? press the terrorist panic button.

    and on, and on.

    We’ve got an immigration problem alright, but not an immigration problem with hard workers from Spanish speaking countries. We have an immigration problem with New York speaking, busy-body, police state enthusiast, wannabe totalitarians.

    Virginia needs a border wall too.

    1. “We have an immigration problem with New York speaking, busy-body, police state enthusiast, wannabe totalitarians.”

      I think too many people fail by trying to explain things in terms of a mythological past/culture that never existed. At least I never saw it, when I lived in a world where it is alleged to have existed.

      A few days ago I reflected on the rural area where I grew up walking the fields with a gun from the time I was about 7. The only people who complained that my parents shouldn’t oughta allow me to do that were our rural neighbors.

      When we had our own rifle range and shot hand-trap in our back field, the guy who called the cops on us all the time was a farm hand. He had been moved into a farm house owned by a local farmer, and as my father put it at the time, immediately assumed he was “mayor” of the neighborhood. (He was the only person I ever witnessed my father physically threaten. He moved away after losing several cars to sugar in their gas tanks.)

      The only person I witnessed my mother physically threaten was the busybody postmistress at the general store, who was spreading the rumor that “that B. boy smokes!” She had mistaken another older kid for my brother. My mother credibly threatened to drag her out of her store and beat her into the pavement of the road; but she had been primed by other rumors that had been spread about her.)

      When the newbies and townies started to develop the neighborhood, the only difference was that they complained about different issues. People who wanted to live “in the country” complained when corn husks from the farmers’ fields blew onto their property, or the pigs smelled bad.

      Plenty more memories where those come from.

      So the manufactured myth that there is a rural culture that isn’t “busy-body, police-state, wannabe totalitarians” always pisses me off. The best thing I remember about the “culture” of the still-rural place where I grew up was, it was much easier to avoid it, putting on my hunting boots after school and heading for the woods. Country people just seek to enforce other issues than urban people; that is the only “cultural difference.”

    2. Every metro area is different, but as I mentioned in a comment a couple of posts ago, Northern Virginia’s demographic shift in the last 20 years has not been driven by white liberals relocating there but a huge growth in minorities. The census data backs this up as nearly all net population growth in the area since 2000 comes from minorities. Prince William county for example is now roughly 45% White, 22% Hispanic, and 22% Black. With the latter two groups voting overwhelmingly Democrat regardless of who the candidate is, it doesn’t matter if some rockstar Republican can carry 60% of the White vote in a future election.

      I lived in Northern Virginia from 2006-2013 and have been in Western PA since. The differences between Democrats in the two areas is stark. Democrats in Northern Virginia are definitely your NY or LA breed. Democrats in Western PA are more socially conservative and probably resemble the Democrats of VA circa 1980.

      The future issue I’m seeing in the Pittsburgh area is that while these Reagan Democrats start to die off, they are either not being replaced (rural counties) or are being replaced by liberal transplants (Pittsburgh and surrounding suburbs), since Pittsburgh is experiencing a renaissance and is attracting a lot of tech jobs.

      1. Those are Minority Transplants you’re speaking of. The Plurality of it is Minority Transplants (US Citizens) from Baltimore and other Minority-Majority Liberal Maryland Cities, followed by Minority Transplants from the Metro Northeast of NYC and the Northeast Corridor of New Jersey and Wester Connecticut.

        That’s the point that Dave was making; “Transplants” doesn’t mean ‘White Liberal Snowbirds’. There are US Citizens that are Minority-Transplants too.

        Immigrants are big chunk of it too, but that’s only about 1/3rd of the Demographic Shift of Northern Virginia.

        Prince William County, Virginia may as well be called Broward County, Florida-North. It’s a Minority-Majority Retirement County.

        1. Right. It’s not -just- an immigrant problem, it’s not just a white flight problem, it’s not just a misperception about how things used to be. It’s a complex combination of things but a totally undersold element of this is NY region refugees. as @Joe_in_Pitt alluded to, regionally, NY republicans are like Harrisburg democrats. NY democrats … well, Cortez represents that demographic’s left 20% or so, but typifies the philosophy and political belief system. While there are a great many who move south to make a better life with less overcrowding – not possible in Northern Virginia, so I don’t know why they use this excuse, they may come for a job or better life. A substantial number of these refugees are politically active and don’t come here to assimilate into the starkly different, not a city and not a totalitarian regime that controls every aspect of your life. Although Fairfax county does come close.

          Even if this demographic moved only to assimilate, they’re overcrowding the area even more than it already is. NoVA traffic is in the top 5 worst in the country because there are simply too many people, not enough area. Overcrowding always favors the left side of the political spectrum.

          There’s also a substantial portion of the sanctuary region that don’t or aren’t eligible to vote. Even though it’s a felony, this is happening and most importantly, ineligible voting is not prosecuted. I don’t think this is significant, yet, but the premise of both sanctuary status and the willingness to ignore the crime is ominous. Voting means less and less, the more ineligible people participate. More so are the infrastructure who are eligible to vote who support or cater to the ineligible crowd.

          One thing this demographic sweep have in common, regardless of background, race, religion or region of origin: The majority of them like free stuff and that’s what the democrats promise. Let’s be honest – the Dems position of “free” health care, “free college tuition”, free credits for welfare, college admission preference if you’re certain minority classes, all of these policies invoke the Robin Hood theme – ‘take from the rich and give to the poor’

          Who wouldn’t like free stuff, or a law giving you a leg up getting into college?

          1. This whole thing with Immigration is really History repeating itself.

            The Democrat Party has always been the Political Benefactor of large Quantities and Waves of Immigrants coming into the Country.

            The current South American/Asiatic Immigration Wave from the late 1980’s to Present is politically Identical to the Irish Catholic and Germanic Immigrant Waves of the early 1820’s through Mid-1870’s, and proportionally to the US Population at Largea, the Irish and German Immigrant Waves had bigger impact on the Country back then compared to those of now.

  4. In VA, Bloomy’s money didn’t help of course (didn’t necessary hurt either). It was completely on the rise of the federal government employee count. VA is going blue.

    PA is concerning too. Of course it doesn’t help the state GOP is a joke.

    But nationwide, we are doing great on gun rights. We may lose a few states that are purple turning blue, the red states are getting redder. We just added our 16th constitutional carry state. Bloomy’s money is clearly not impacting that.

    I think we are heading for a national divorce, as the red states getting and the blue states get bluer. That or its civil war.

    1. The problem is that the red states that are winning on the 2A issue tend to be low population.

      CA – 40M
      NY – 20M
      NJ – 10M
      MA and CT – 10M
      VA – 10M more

      That’s 90M people denied their civil rights in a nation of 325M. I haven’t even included states like IL, CO, WA, NV, etc that are borderline or about to fall.

      Meanwhile, Oklahoma gets con carry… Great, for 4M people.

      If over a third of the population has already been stripped of their rights I doubt they’ll fight hard to resist further federal encroachment. It also makes our job in the courts that much harder if these laws remain on the books and become “long-standing and traditional.”

      We have got to find a way to get back on offense in our issue even in blue states.

    2. It is not just the state boundaries. All red states have communist enclaves and all blue states have enclaves of patriots. So the national divorce or civil war is going to have to break at some finer distinctions. Counties make a lot of sense although you may have to have some finer distinctions. The national divorce is going to be most complicated with lots of negotiation about boundaries and protocols, kind of like a domestic divorce where you have to split up the assets and deal with custody. Civil war is much simpler but will wreck the country even if we win.

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