Charlie Cook just updated his congressional race rankings, and our district was one of the changes issued. Â Sebastian & I are hopeful for this race, but we also look at the reality of the situation. Â Our district is attracting a significant number of Jersey & New York transplants – unfortunately, the types who bring their voting habits with them. Â Even in the years of Tea Party excitement & serious organization here locally, the Democrats have the registration advantage and have consistently delivered more new voter registrations than the GOP since at least 2008. Â Reality doesn’t bode well for us, especially when you factor in that the Democratic incumbent is a very good liar & fantastic fundraiser.
However, the political reporters have consistently labeled this a very competitive district for 2010. Â I have questioned them about it, and pointed out that even Charlie Cook kept it rated as a “Lean Democrat” district even when others were considering it a top competitive race. Â Well, that changed late yesterday. Â Cook now considers this district to be “Toss Up.” While I won’t put all of my eggs in one basket when it comes to believing one political analyst over another, I guess this cements that they are seeing signs of life here that we just haven’t witnessed on the ground.
Interestingly, Cook also moved the ratings for several other Pennsylvania races to the right. Â We have more competitive Congressional races by sheer number & percentage of districts according to some I’ve talked to about the state of politics here. Â If you’ve got a few bucks burning a hole in your pocket, there are a lot of candidates who could use the help here in Pennsylvania to shake things up nationally.
Add in the fact that our State House could flip with just a handful of seat changes, and Pennsylvania is going to be a very interesting state to watch.