Well, it looks like the White House is putting its full weight behind DISCLOSE to get it back on the House calendar for a vote. This is bad news. When this story first broke, I left a comment at Joe’s about some of the writing on the wall that had to go into the decisions that any group was making on the bill (with additional notes):
From what I’m seeing out of other groups, this amendment could very well kill the bill. Here’s what we either know or can safely assume by the actions of this Democratic Congress so far:
- They have a history of ramming things down the throats of the American people even when there is 50%+ opposition – even very loud and visible opposition.
Health care, anyone? Â Try getting people as worked up over campaign finance – an issue that few people know anything about. Â Hell, just look at the comments here and on other blogs to show how little people know about the issue. Â Besides, you’re also talking about competing with the millions that George Soros has pumped into a “campaign finance reform” public relations effort over many, many years.
- They pretty much see the writing on the wall that this is their last stand in the House. They could back off to calm people down before the elections so they have a shot at holding on to power or they could try to get every little thing they can right now while they know they have it.
Talking to some DC folks this weekend, this point is even more important than I realized at the time. Â Everyone there knows that this won’t pass court muster. Â But that’s not the goal. Â The goal is to get this into law before this year’s elections so that angry groups are cut off from the voters. Â Whether it’s liberal groups turning against Democratic incumbents or conservative groups targeting Democrats, they want them all shut out of the campaign process. Â They are actually the ones who are just trying to live to fight another day here.
- They wanted this bill, and it’s clearly a priority of the President who broke all standards of reasonable protocol by attacking the Supreme Court justices who attended his SOTU. Therefore, fact # 1 becomes more relevant to anyone working on this issue.
See above. Â The White House is now getting in to twist some arms. Â They are, however, conceding the big group exemption. Â My guess is that they are going to tell the far left members of Congress to shut the hell up and get in line – just like they did on healthcare. Â And they will do it. Â The House leadership & White House will probably promise that the bill will eventually be “fixed” someday, but they really know it won’t and that it will be struck down. Â That doesn’t matter, they just need some of it to work this year to try to minimize their losses.
- NRA could make sure their members were taken of in the event they do ram this through Congress. It may only hold off the fight for another day, but come January, we’ll at least have a friendlier House – even if we don’t take full control of it back. In two more years, we may have a friendly White House & Congress to gut this thing.
The big group exemption makes sure gun owners can still be heard on Election Day. Â I hate it, but it at least makes sure our concerns don’t go down the tubes this year while we wait on the courts to (hopefully) throw the law out or a future Congress & president to gut it.
- The side benefit to this kind of exemption is the added attention that could kill the bill in all forms. The outrage is there from the left. But, looking back at # 1, NRA donors are still safe for now. It’s just a matter of whether Pelosi, Schumer & Obama are so confident to stick their tongues out at the left and yell, “What are you going to do, vote Republican? Just take it with a smile and vote for us again in November.” Based on the “hell no” Van Hollen gave to any union exemption last night, I tend to think they’re going to try and ram it down everyone’s throats even over the objections of their base.
This is may still be the case. Â The opposition may be the reason the House cut their calendar by a week this year – always a good thing to get the politicians out of DC. Â However, with the White House making the noises they are about how it’s not a “perfect” bill, but they will take it, it does appear they are telling their base to shut the hell up and get out of the way.
Now, there is still room for those of you who fall in the general conservative category to fight this. Â If you live in a Blue Dog district, get on the damn phone right now. Â If you live in a far left district, get on the phone now and tell them to kill the bill – leaving them to assume you’re part of the base. Â If you live in a GOP district, there’s a good chance that they will oppose it, but get on the phone anyway because we can’t afford to have any stray. Â You know the Democrats can afford to have a few wander off the reservation, but the Republicans can’t afford it. Â And when you’re dealing with literally hundreds of millions invested into convincing the public that anything called “campaign finance reform” is a good idea, it could be a tough fight. Â Whether we like it not, that’s the political reality of the moment. Â We have to figure out how to beat them anyway.