The Legislature might even be able to find a way to continue banning concealed carry while rewriting the law to satisfy the appeals court, which said the current law doesn’t rest on sufficient justification. Short of that, the Legislature could consider a narrowly crafted law, such as that in New York, which has concealed carry in theory but does not grant many permits.
This is a lot of ridiculous handwringing and a complete denial of what the political realities are. Governor Quinn’s veto or a pro-gun ammunition bill, and the subsequent override of that veto speaks volumes. The political reality in Illinois is that Todd Vandermyde (NRA’s lobbyist in Springfield) has had concealed carry a hair’s breath away from having enough votes to pass, even over the objection of the politicians from the Chicago area. This ruling does nothing but strengthen his hand, and it’s hard to imagine that this will not now convince a couple more legislators to come over and vote for a shall-issue bill.
The Court has set a deadline. After the deadline, the threat is that Illinois could become Arizona. That’s going to put fear into politicians that have previously been hostile, or lukewarm the shall-issue bill. Both sides have an incentive to compromise, but theirs is stronger. Our fear is that the courts will be unwilling to follow through on their deadline, and the threats are empty. Or that Madigan will appeal to the whole panel and Posner’s ruling will be stayed. Given the strength of Posner’s opinion, I’m not sure that’s a risk they are going to be willing to take. I think this gets us the votes for a shall-issue bill, and probably a stronger one than they would have faced before this case won.