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Here Come the Editorials on the 7th Circuit Victory

John Richardson notes one from the Chicago Sun-Times, where Lisa Madigan speaks about “reviewing her options,” and with the post editorializing they should follow New York’s lead:

The Legislature might even be able to find a way to continue banning concealed carry while rewriting the law to satisfy the appeals court, which said the current law doesn’t rest on sufficient justification. Short of that, the Legislature could consider a narrowly crafted law, such as that in New York, which has concealed carry in theory but does not grant many permits.

This is a lot of ridiculous handwringing and a complete denial of what the political realities are. Governor Quinn’s veto or a pro-gun ammunition bill, and the subsequent override of that veto speaks volumes. The political reality in Illinois is that Todd Vandermyde (NRA’s lobbyist in Springfield) has had concealed carry a hair’s breath away from having enough votes to pass, even over the objection of the politicians from the Chicago area. This ruling does nothing but strengthen his hand, and it’s hard to imagine that this will not now convince a couple more legislators to come over and vote for a shall-issue bill.

The Court has set a deadline. After the deadline, the threat is that Illinois could become Arizona. That’s going to put fear into politicians that have previously been hostile, or lukewarm the shall-issue bill. Both sides have an incentive to compromise, but theirs is stronger. Our fear is that the courts will be unwilling to follow through on their deadline, and the threats are empty. Or that Madigan will appeal to the whole panel and Posner’s ruling will be stayed. Given the strength of Posner’s opinion, I’m not sure that’s a risk they are going to be willing to take. I think this gets us the votes for a shall-issue bill, and probably a stronger one than they would have faced before this case won.

4 Responses to “Here Come the Editorials on the 7th Circuit Victory”

  1. Rob Crawford says:

    After the deadline, the threat is that Illinois could become Arizona.

    That will confuse the residents of the two Peoria’s.

  2. ” Given the strength of Posner’s opinion, I’m not sure that’s a risk they are going to be willing to take. I think this gets us the votes for a shall-issue bill, and probably a stronger one than they would have faced before this case won.”

    The historical record of Illinois authorities handling gun cases intelligently is spotty to say the least. Mayor Richard Daley bears a great deal of responsibility for McDonald because he was too stubborn to accept a previous 7th Circuit decision. While appealing would be a good way for Illinois to delay implementation in Illinois, it may very well create SCOTUS precedent that will lead to the destruction of discretionary issue laws in California and New York. The 2nd Amendment applies outside the home in the 7th Circuit, but not everywhere, especially not in New York and in California. I would not be surprised that Mayor Bloomberg and/or California AG Kamala Harris have already or will contact Mayor Emanuel to urge him to accept defeat in Illinois for the sake of other states. SCOTUS confirmation of the 7th Circuit opinion opens up discretionary issue laws for direct attacks, IMHO.

    In my opinion, appeal, or don’t appeal. The 2nd will be applied outside the home nation wide sooner or later, and appealing this case will only make it sooner as it is the most advanced case.

    Oh, and to the Cook County/Chicago political machine that has dragged this issue out for so many years: “Suck it, b****es! You deserve everything you’re going to get.”

  3. Old NFO says:

    Good news, and yes, I too wonder if they will take this all the way to SCOTUS.

  4. MichaelB says:

    Good analysis Sebastian! Thanks for sharing.

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