If I had to guess which country was most likely to take the path of systematic genocide as a terrorism fix, Russia would be my candidate. They’ve killed their own people in boxcar lots within living memory and, unlike Germany, haven’t had to deal with fifty years of international tongue-clucking and scolding because of it. (Not that caring what others think has ever been a defining characteristic of Russian leadership anyway.) The Chechen separatist strategy doesn’t strike me as very bright, poking this particular bear with this particular stick.
If there’s any lesson in post-Soviet Russia, it’s that Moscow doesn’t need much of an excuse to start shooting Chechens.