A commenter from earlier gave us an idea of just how important the 2012 election is for gun owners:
From the perspective of anyone who supports the RKBA, this election should be about, â€œHow much do you want to bet that Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, Alito, and Roberts will all still be living by the end of 2016?â€ By then, their ages would be 80, 80, 68, 66, and 61.
At the risk of being a bit morbid, this begs the question of just what is the likelihood that one of the Heller 5 is going to kick the bucket between now and the end of what would be Obama’s second term. Given this rather morbid site, one can actually make a rough calculation, based on statistics for people that age in the DC area. Scalia, Kennedy and Thomas have roughly the same chance of dying, at 16%. Thomas is younger, but being African-American skews him into the same bracket as the older Scalia and Kennedy. Roberts is only 4%, being the youngest member of the court, and Alito only 6%, being not much older.
But the loss of one of the Heller 5 would result in a failure for the Second Amendment, and for basic failure analysis, you multiply the probabilities of the individual components functioning properly over that time to arrive at a 46% probability that if Obama gets a second term, the Second Amendment is toast. I’m not comfortable those odds, and I sure as hell hope other folks who care about the Second Amendment aren’t either. Reality is that the Justices, being upper middle class and with great health care coverage, will probably beat statistical averages. But that should still scare you. This also only considers death, and not health problems that force a retirement, or a justice just getting old and tired.
The odds of getting a pro-2A Justice from Obama are zero percent, and even if the GOP takes the Senate, I still don’t put the odds up above zero. Any of the Republican field will have a considerably higher probability of nominating a pro-2A Justice, just because the pool of candidates they have to choose from has a much higher probability of containing a pro-gun Justice than the pool Obama can pick from.