Top Shot Update

If I were Caleb, my main disappointment about being eliminated last week would have been not getting to do that totally cool shooting gallery. That looked like a lot of fun to me. I think an IHMSA shooter, particularly one practiced in field pistol, would have done well there.

I would note that Kelly has now joined Brad in surviving two elimination challenges, though I am amused that this week it came down to poker playing skills. I can sympathize with Andre, because I am also not a poker player. Andre should be proud though — Kelly is a very good fundamental shooter, and he only barely lost.

I should note that they are looking for season two contestants, as you can see from Gun Pundit and SayUncle. You won’t be seeing me on any future episodes at the going rate. It would take more than 100 grand to get me to do something like that. No way. I’m not going to be a pawn in HDTV drama for that kind of cash. We can start the bidding at a cool million. Then we’ll talk. Even then I’m not sure it’s worth it given I would have like a one in sixteen chance of winning. We might have to talk 8 figures. I’m thinking turbojet aircraft territory here. If I can win a Cessna Citation I might be willing to give up the job and risk it all. I definitely need the upgraded avionics package.

7 thoughts on “Top Shot Update”

  1. Andre, I feel bad for you man, I’d have been in the same situation as you. I know as much about poker as Obama knows about AR’s.

  2. And Adam beclowned himself yet again. What does it matterto him if Denny didn’t jump feet-first into the elimination competition.

    Eye. Mote. Log. Etc.

  3. Adam is demonstrating that it isn’t just careful editing…

    As I said on Caleb’s blog; these aren’t balanced teams. Shooting skills started out equal, and if anything Team Red has better social skills. But Team Blue has the better planners.

    The elimination challenge, IMHO, did a good job in selecting the better contestant. Yes, Kelly shot worse. But both contestants had an equal knowledge of poker, and there was a big easel with the hand ranks on it next to the elimination range. If, as it appeared, the cards were 3″ x 5″ (estimated from the size of bullet hole), there have been harder e-postal targets. Kelly simply had better planning; as shown by his blocking shots. Andre’s plan in the first round was the obvious one; and he clearly hadn’t considered using one of his “extra” shots to block Kelly. In the second round, by bracketing his straight, he signaled to Kelly exactly where Kelly needed to place his blocking shot *and* allowed Kelly to block and score at the same time. Those aren’t poker skills (poker skills are the statistical skills of estimating odds and the social skills of reading your opponent). Ignore the heraldry of the playing cards for a bit and think about the mechanics of the contest. Compare it to, say, the epostal of this past June (the one with the billiard ball target). The test wasn’t primarily of accuracy, but of forethought and shoot/no-shoot

  4. You also inspired me to do the math. While the final payout looks nice, the odds-adjusted payout is not so hot. Going in, a 1 in 16 chance at $100,000 is worth roughly $6000. My opportunity cost is 30 calendar days of not working; roughly 2 pay periods. (For the purposes of this exercise the presense or absense of paid time off is irrelevant). And I haven’t even figured out what happens with my taxes.

    To make it worth my while I would either have to have an edge on all the other competitors or be gaining significant non-monetary compensation. Or be making rather less in a paycheck than I am. (I am *not* pulling down $6K a month, btw. Much less than that, in fact. But They have to pay me additional to a) be on a reality show, b) to take the downside risk of coming away with nothing, and c)the tax complications. The odds-adjusted *after-tax* payout would have to be at least triple my take-home pay for the time period of the show before I would eeven consider it.

  5. Maybe you should.

    Maybe we blogs should make a concerted effort to get a number of mature shooters on the show. With the intention of having them encourage the other shooters, to above all else, provide a positive representation of shooters.

    (ie: Encourage no whining, minimal gaming, and good shooting)

  6. I dunno – I think the producers are getting much less drama than expected. Adam was a gift to them in that regard; but the runner-up drama (Kelly vs Brad) is much more subdued, and then it tails off. There’s no chance of a 5-llama pileup on the horizon yet.

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