search
top

Future of the Gun Rights Movement Open Thread

I am swamped, and probably will be all week. So I don’t have as much time to post anything. One thing to talk about is the future of the Gun Rights Movement. Here’s some things that we have to look forward to:

  • We’ll almost certainly get National Reciprocity at some point. I think there’s probably a good chance we don’t get that until 2018, unless the NRA has found a few extra votes to get past 60 in the Senate.
  • If Trump lives up to his word on Supreme Court picks, nearly all of the people on the list he floated were acceptable from a Second Amendment point of view. My fear is that we’d need to replace one of the Heller dissenter with a solid pro-2A vote, because either Kennedy or Roberts is soft on the Second Amendment. To be honest, I don’t think it’s Kennedy, so I’m not certain Kennedy’s retirement would fix anything.
  • NRA did very very well with Barack Obama in the White House. Will they keep 5 million members? I know they’ll be claiming that number for a while, even if it drops back to 4 million. But will NRA have issues holding members?
  • I think we can get suppressors delisted from the National Firearms Act. Talk of repealing Hughes or delisting machine guns from NFA are fantasy land. The next step after suppressors would be SBRs and SBSs.
  • I’d like to see simple legislation that states may not restrict the sale or possession of any firearm, ammunition, magazines or other firearm accessory if possession of those items would generally be legal under federal law. That would end the era of state gun bans.

73 Responses to “Future of the Gun Rights Movement Open Thread”

  1. Stephen says:

    It’s amazing how the election of a person I found to be detestable in many ways (but whom I voted for — as he was running against someone even more detestable who supported bad policies) actually saved the gun culture from what I believe would have become a slow but virtually inevitable demise. That’s assuming your predictions (which mirror my own) prove true, of course, but I put the chances of that at over 60/40. And of course we’re also assuming Trump doesn’t ruin everything and 2018 unexpectedly becomes a wave Democrat election followed by a democrat president in 2020.

    So maybe the chances of getting these things are only 50/50 or less … but I’m an optimist.

    • dollup15 says:

      Anything can happen in the House in 2018, but it’s going to be almost impossible for the Senate to go Democratic. With the exception of Nevada, Republicans are only defending seats in solidly red states. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending seats in 24 states, including several red states.

  2. Whetherman says:

    “We’ll almost certainly get National Reciprocity at some point.”

    If so, it will almost certainly come accompanied by national standards for permit issuance. I hope as a Pennsylvanian you will enjoy them!

    • Sebastian says:

      None of the bills before Congress right now create any national standard for permit issuance. That could come later if Congress turns against gun rights, but anything could always come later.

    • Stephen says:

      Some restrictions may be included in it like minimal training standards, which most states will be fine with. But I’m sure the residents of NY, NJ, Cali, etc. will be VERY happy without about anything that gives them some kind of rights.

      You can see a clear trend that states that become anti-gun become culturally MORE anti-gun as time goes on. We’ve got to reverse that, and the courts and national legislation are the only way. Gotta win a few battles and take some casualties if we’re going to win the war.

      • Sebastian says:

        No bill proposed now or in past Congresses have ever addressed training standards for recognition, nor do we want that in the bill under any circumstance.

        • AnOregonian says:

          I can’t imagine that it won’t get shaped into something more like LEOSA. Which, correct me if I’m wrong, does have training requirements.

          • Sebastian says:

            None of the bills introduced have been anything like the LEOSA.

            LEOSA requires that to qualify, you have to be an active duty officer and pass any qualification required by your department. If you’re retired law enforcement, it still requires you to meet the qualification requirements for active duty, or absent that a DoD certified course. So yes, there are standards to qualify as an officer or retired officer. But none of the bills for federal reciprocity for civilians have ever mentioned anything about training.

            • AnOregonian says:

              At present, that is correct, the national reciprocity doesn’t. What I’m saying is that I can’t imagine it’ll make it to the finish line without being made to look more like LEOSA.

              Do I want it to? No! I’m just being realistic about what the Republicans will need to do to merely guarantee support from their own ranks. So when that gets proposed as an amendment, and accepted, I don’t want anyone being surprised.

        • Stephen says:

          And I hope the bill that gets passed is like others we’ve had with no training standards. But that said … if it’s necessary to get it passed, and it may be, I think we’ve gotta take that deal. But of course I’m not a guy who makes the final decision or anything … but I’ll support such a bill if I have to. Sometimes the best you can do is better than doing nothing (like Illinois CCW).

          • Sebastian says:

            We were only a few votes short when this came up after Sandy Hook. We’re probably still a few short, which I think there’s a prayer to pick up in 2018. I don’t think the bill will need to address training standards, and we don’t really want it to. It’s better to wait to have the votes.

    • Whetherman says:

      “it will almost certainly come accompanied by national standards for permit issuance.”

      I confess I misspoke when I wrote that.

      No, national reciprocity will not come “accompanied by” national standards for permit issuance. Those will come later once the federal camel’s nose is under the tent.

      With regard to “minimal training standards” all I can do is repeat a phrase I remember my father sometimes using, “there is some shit I will not eat.” But I would suggest that everyone try to think about things from a perspective other than that of gun hobbyists and Real Gunnies: If we want the culture of gun carrying to permeate our society more, we need to recognize there are cultures that won’t go within 100 feet of an “official” training venue, because they don’t trust The Man.

      I will also predict that national standards will be used to divide and conquer gun owners, with gun activists in the most restrictive states willing to trade off the rights of everyone in every other state, to secure a little bit of rights for themselves. We saw that in Pennsylvania when Philadelphians were willing to accept (and believe) almost anything in what became Act 17 of 1995, in return for gaining a few new rights for themselves.

    • Patrick says:

      The only way reciprocity happens is if it is attached as an amendment to bill that will get through the Senate – think funding the EPA or (better yet) a yuge infrastructure bill that spends lots of dollars Dems want for union halls.

      Anything else is what they call a “Show Bill” – it’s all about getting votes and donations because nobody expects it to pass.

      Richard Hudson (R, NC) just promised a reciprocity bill in the new Congress. If the House passes it to the Senate as a standalone bill, you can be sure you are being played for a fool. You are Charlie Brown and the GOP/NRA is Lucy – yanking that football every time you get close. BTW, this is exactly what happened when he introduced the same bill in 2015.

      The ONLY way gun legislation can pass is to attach it to an actual bill that the Dems in the Senate won’t dare filibuster.

      Anything else is just for show.

  3. KevinC says:

    The future of gun rights is with Pink Pistols, The Well Armed Woman, Black Guns Matter and other such organizations. It’s with my kids, who are even more libertarian than I am. The future of gun rights depends on not letting our opposition try to marginalize us as old fat white guys who either want to shoot Bambi for the fun of it or shoot minorities because we’re racist.

    The best way to defeat identity politics is to have an identity that can’t be pigeon-holed.

    • Boyd says:

      ^ This. Just as we had to embrace Gun Culture 2.0, this is the direction we need to go. Would this be Gun Culture 3.0?

  4. aerodawg says:

    SCOTUS future depends on Darth Vader Ginsburg or that idiot Breyer dropping dead along with Thomas and Kennedy retiring gracefully.

    • dollup15 says:

      I keep hearing about people wanting Thomas to retire. Why is that? He is 68, and only two years older than Alito.

      • Miles says:

        I’ve wondered that myself.
        And, from his concurring opinions, dissents and other dicta, I think he’s even more pro-fundamental 2A than any other justice.

    • Publius says:

      Ginsburg may not be very good on 2A issues, but she is one of the better ones on 4A (and currently outnumbered).

  5. AnOregonian says:

    I REALLY hope you’re right. With Eric and Donald Jr around to give their support and keep dear old dad on track, I’m feeling pretty optimistic as well.

    But I’m also leery of our confirmation bias giving us false hope.

  6. HSR47 says:

    922(o) may seem like an impossible target today, but who honestly thought differently about any type of NFA reform 5-10 years ago?

    Even three years ago most people didn’t believe me when I expressed my belief that we’d see tangible NFA reform within the next 15-20 years. Now practically half my customers are talking about the HPA, and what silencers they want to get once they’re regulated like long guns federally.

    Never underestimate what a true grassroots movement can accomplish.

    • Jim Jones says:

      I am really hoping that the HPA gets passed. The Dems will NEVER understand the true nature of our culture. I was always interested in suppressors, but it was their revamping of the 41f/41P rule that prompted me to act and create a trust and buy suppressors. I ended up registering an SBR, and getting 3 suppressors before the deadline; a .22LR can, and .45 pistol can, and a 7.62 rifle can. If it wasn’t for the ATF screwing with us, I would probably still be sitting here with MAYBE one suppressor in jail. Now I have 4 NFA items in jail, three of which would be freed if the HPA gets passed.

      I truly think that passing the HPA could be a real boon to the firearms industry. Innovation would be rampant as everyone tried to build their new integrally suppressed firearms. Everyone would also be looking to purchase threaded barrels for the existing 400m firearms out there. And the Maxim could get some competition from Glock. Fun times ahead!

  7. Ian Argent says:

    National reciprocity is a worthy goal, but I don’t expect it to help me, or anyone else in the unfree jurisdictions much. With national reciprocity, the need to issue out of state permits very nearly vanishes, so I expect the states that currently issue then to stop doing so. At which point Congress will have to firmly grasp the flail of McDonald and the 14th and 2nd Amendments, and force shall issue. Which will open up a can of snakes.

    • HSR47 says:

      How will it open up a can of snakes?

      The Feds just need to tie police/prison funding to carry permit issuance standards.

      • Ian Argent says:

        The details are where the devil is. It’s easy to mandate reciprocity, since every state now (theoretically) issues permits, and in the anti gun states, the permits go to the connected, so they won’t like to see restrictions on where and how they can carry.

        Defining the requirements for shall issue, though, that the states can’t evade or pervert, that’s going to be rough. And then the lawsuits

        • HSR47 says:

          The thing is that many of the worst states are also the ones that tend to suck hardest on the federal tit.

          Tying federal funding to things like permitting standards (true shall issue at lower cost than a DL), full reciprocity, eliminating feature and capacity bans, and fully complying with NICS exemptions, is probably the best way to get those things short-term.

          Either we get expanded gun rights, or the federal government doesn’t need to steal as much of our money. Win/win.

      • Ian Argent says:

        That having been said, I think it can be done. It just won’t be easy.

    • Patrick says:

      The reason reciprocity matters is because it would be a massive psychological win, more profound than when Florida started the whole “Shall Issue” trend decades ago. It’s the spark that starts a fire.

      Sure, we could argue the mechanics of Virginia citizens carrying in Maryland when most in MD cannot…but the real impact will be the idea that 200+ million people can carry most anywhere. It will catch on.

      • HSR47 says:

        This.

        A lot of the anti-carry bias is from people who buy into the left/media’s “blood in the streets” codswallop.

        Once these people see the reality that they’ve been sold a bill of goods, much of the widespread opposition to carry will fall.

        At the same time, it will energize the activists in-state, and add to their ranks: If your family/friends who come over for holidays can carry but you can’t, how pissed are you going to be? Pissed enough to bitch out your legislators every other week? My bet is yes.

        As to increasing the number of activists, the number one thing that gets people enthusiastic about concealed carry is knowing people who actually carry. Since carry is all but impossible behind the lines of occupied territory, the people there don’t know anyone (other than cops) who carry. Once they actually have the opportunity to see normal people they know carrying, they will start asking the question: “Why can’t I do that too?” As far as getting rid of bad carry laws, that is the only question that matters.

        • Patrick Henry, the 2nd says:

          Its definitely a two-fer. Showing the lies and/or hyperbole the anti-carry folks will tell making their arguments worth less and less, as well as people seeing that its okay and “I want that too!”

  8. HappyWarrior6 says:

    I think the NRA needs to target its efforts at states and keeping a watchful eye on blue legislatures, governors, and AGs. That’s where the fight (and the money) is, and getting hoodwinked in Nevada did not go unnoticed by the anti-gunners. They have nothing to look forward to federally, so look out for a massive Bloomberg warchest to emerge state by state.

    • Brad says:

      Exactly right.

      California for example shows signs of going the way of Australia. A trend I expect will accelerate in a purely reactionary fashion to pro-gun developments at the Federal Level. California is ground zero for gun-control, with a supermajority of anti-gun Democrats controlling all branches of government.

      Unless the Feds intervene either via Court action or new gun-rights enforcement legislation, life in the Blue States is going to get very harsh for gun-owner over the next 4 to 8 years.

      • Sebastian says:

        And it’s worth noting there are still a number of blue states that are relatively gun friendly. If that changes, we’re moving backwards, not forwards.

  9. Steve says:

    All I dare to hope for is better Court appointments than Clinton would have given us and no active push for gun control from the executive office.

    In the meantime, it gives us more room to fix our house without being in complete crisis mode, and by that I mean fixing gun culture and the country. I feel that culturally, it’s now or never. The pessimist in me worries this may be that time where a dying person feels really damn good – nay, shockingly good – the day before they kick the bucket.

    Unless some long-term moves are made this term and maybe next to protect the culture of gun ownership and the activities that compliment its systemic _renewal_ – scholastic sports, hunting, proper framing in the education system – I think we’ll lose in the long run.

    So things like national reciprocity, NFA or some of these other golden rings a lot of us care so deeply about because they stroke our immediate nerd needs I think are less important and a distraction right now compared to these more challenging questions:

    * How do we leverage this term to increase and protect the shooting sports in the school system?
    * Hunting doesn’t need to be radically popular, but it does need to be brought back into the American culture as something we “do”. For instance, maybe you don’t hunt, but you know someone who does and fully support them and want your kids to at least have the skills to do it. With the focus on organic food, responsibility, sustainability, there’s probably not been a better time in a long time to reframe hunting as a positive part of the American heritage and culture.
    * What can we do about the education system – this is broader than gun rights, but it’s shocking how many libertarian kids exist despite the education system, especially at the collegiate level. Maybe it’s a form of rebellion? I don’t know the answer, but I think the idea of bringing balance into the government funded education system is an important one. So the thorny question is what can we do to properly frame gun ownership and rights in the context of American history and culture in the education system?

    I think these questions are more important than SBRs.

    • HappyWarrior6 says:

      Spot on.

      I would only add that what you want also requires cementing those tenets as a lasting part of the “political culture” for not only Republicans but Democrats which, so far, except in isolation in certain purple states, has not happened. We need to make gun control so politically repulsive so as not to have it brought up in front of polite company ever again.

      But we also need a few spoils. After all *WE* did put into office the politicians (and a president) who promised us things. They should be held to their promises which is what the main topic of this thread focuses on.

    • HSR47 says:

      I think you underestimate the importance of carry legalization/normalization.

      Virtually all the gains we have made in the last 20-30 years have become as a direct result of the concealed carry movement.

      The left likes to bleat about “blood in the streets” but it never actually comes to pass. Once they’re shown to be well and truly full of excrement, it makes it far easier for us to make our case politically and individually. Then the left are the chicken littles running around making outlandish claims and we are the reasonable side. This wins elections, and it wins better gun laws.

      • Patrick Henry, the 2nd says:

        Absolutely right. I never even thought 10 years ago a single state would pass Constitutional Carry, and yet we have 7 or so states that have.

        National Reciprocity should be the next step, as that will force the gun culture to still be active in the slave states, at least a little bit.

        After that should be suppressors, because that will be a huge boon to the industry and culture.

        Both of those we can use the arguments that the anti-CCW forces have been clearly wrong, and they will be wrong again.

        • Miles says:

          The number of “ConCarry” states is at 10 and on 1 Jan will be 11.

          We’re doing even better than you might think.

    • Sebastian says:

      The problem you’re going to have with focusing exclusively on the culture is that approximately 1/3rd of the American population live in states that have passed laws that effectively destroy their gun culture. Until those laws change, 1/3rd of the US population is effectively off limits to us. We’ve actually done very very well in spreading the culture in states where we can, but you have to fix those bad states, and there’s been a LOT of damage there.

      • HSR47 says:

        As I’ve said elsewhere, I think the biggest single federal legislative step we could take to improve the gun culture in those bad states is a federal carry reciprocity statute.

        The single driving force that has built the gun culture back up over the last 30 years has been the concealed carry movement. This movement is completely grassroots: First the media’s outlandish “blood in the streets” claims were disproved, and then people started meeting level-headed people they knew who had carry permits. At that point it wasn’t a bunch of “crazy NRA gun nuts” it was reasonable level-headed people that they knew. That’s our best hope for fixing the gun culture in places like NY, NJ, and CA.

  10. Brad says:

    Too much focus on SCOTUS.

    Yes, SCOTUS is the ultimate key to everything. But it is in the lower courts we have been getting royally screwed since 2010. And the lower courts right now are still processing many active gun rights cases.

    We don’t need to wait for some Supreme Court judges to die off. There is tons of opportunity to appoint more 2nd amendment friendly justices to the lower courts. I understand there are many vacancies needing to be filled Right Now.

    • dollup15 says:

      Trump has a real opportunity here. He has, at the very least, two years to get as many federal judges appointed as he wants. With a GOP majority in the Senate, and the filibuster gone for judicial nominees (thanks Democrats!), he should use what time he has to fill every possible vacancy.

      • Patrick says:

        Time to expand the federal courts. Split the Ninth. Double lower and appellate judges.

        Cases (civil and criminal) are backed up on the federal bench to the point that criminal cases are delayed possibly to the point the guarantee of a “speedy trial” is violated. We need more lower courts and more appellate judges. This is not a temporary problem – it gets worse every year.

        Make the Federal Courts Great Again

        • dollup15 says:

          I’m not certain expansion is necessary, at least for Article III courts. A major part of the problem with the backlog is that there are so many vacancies for already-existing judgeships.

          At the moment, there are 105 vacant judgeships out of a total of 860 authorized judgeships. Over 12% vacant! If Trump can get most or all of these vacancies filled, the backlog in Article III courts should go down.

          Now, in terms of Article I courts, like bankruptcy and immigration judges, likely there is cause for expansion there. The danger of expansion is less there, because these judges aren’t appointed for life and have fewer powers.

  11. Robert says:

    Another thing Trump could do immediately is expand the importation of surplus firearms through the CMP even more. (Yes, I know BHO recently allowed more 1911’s in, but not Post WW1 firearms)

    • Whetherman says:

      “Another thing Trump could do immediately is expand the importation of surplus firearms”

      Was it Lee Atwater who once said “We don’t need to talk to any gun owners; the election’s over?”

  12. Jim says:

    Couple of thoughts:

    1) I’m not worried about Trump losing the faith. Main thing is his sons, who are extremely pro-gun and extremely enthusiastic about the hobby, including the modern stuff like NFA toys. His position piece on the RKBA looked like it could have been written by a gun blogger. He’s not a fudd or a “I support the 2nd amendment BUT” type politician.

    2) Harry Reid sold me on the nuclear option. He said we would get it in 2017 when they took a small majority in the Senate and house. I think we should give him what he asked for.

    3) Most of these issues are 70/30 issues (at least) where the states are concerned so I don’t see how this could fail to clear any hurdles in the Senate. As I pointed out in a comment a while back, there’s at most 20-30 senators in states that would be affected in the slightest by a concealed carry reciprocity bill, a “no state bans on things that are federally legal” bill or an suppressor deregulation bill. That stuff is all already legal in 40+ states IIRC. There has been shall issue concealed carry in most states for decades now. And with reciprocity. I can concealed carry in something like 40 states right now. Basically we’re just adding the commie NE states and CA to the list.

    4) Federal training standards is a dumb idea but it’s also not anything to be scared about happening as a result of us passing reciprocity. There is no camel’s nose under the tent here. The dems don’t need an excuse or a precedent to pass a federal law banning concealed carry or banning all guns. What they need is the political ability to do so, which they have always lacked and will continue to lack for the foreseeable future.

    Anyway, I hope they pass this stuff as soon as possible. I’d be thrilled beyond belief if I could take my guns up to NY state when I visit my parents, go shooting on their land with AR-15s or suppressors, concealed carry in NYC (though crime is practical non-existent compared to when I grew up there).

    5) One further suggestion, we need to give remedies against the states/localities that violate these laws or keep gun/mag bans on the books. Lots of attorney’s fees, the whole nine yards. We did this in Florida and in a blink, every county and city with a gun control ordinance repealed it within a few months.

    • Whetherman says:

      “Main thing is his sons, who are extremely pro-gun and extremely enthusiastic about the hobby, including the modern stuff like NFA toys.”

      The NFA toys illustrate a good point: When you’re super-rich you can buy all the rights you want. There is no need to concern yourself with the rights of the little guy.

      I wish I could muster half the faith most of you guys seem to have.

      • HSR47 says:

        All the money in the world won’t get you your NFA guns sooner.

        The shittiest, cheapest .22lr can on the market takes just as long to transfer as a $350,000 Minigun.

      • Jim says:

        Having grown up in NYC and listened to the Trump Jr interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vlu2G5UkXk), I can definitely relate to where he’s coming from. Being a gun owner in NYC is a giant pain in the ass.

        Also, the interview is long, but listen to it. Trump Jr really gets the fucking issue. His dad has obviously delegated here.

        • Bryan says:

          I think Eric & Donald Jr are perhaps some of the best underrated 2A advocates right now. They certainly are able to talk to DJT about the subject.

      • Whetherman says:

        It’s been a long time since I reviewed the truth of the story, but remember when it was alleged that one of arch-gun-grabber Ted Kennedy’s security people was armed with an illegal subgun?

        I seem to recall we were all over the hypocrisy, at the time that story was current.

        Just sayin’ — again — I wish I had a fraction of the faith you guys have. I’ve been listening to a lot of talk, for a lot of years, from people with a lot more credibility than the Trumps.

        No one will be happier than me if I’m proven to have been overly pessimistic.

    • Ed says:

      Jim has it right on point #5. It needs to be vigorously applied nationwide. This discussion of National Reciprocity is attacking the problem in the wrong direction – moving us from limited liberty to less limited liberty instead of restoring full liberty and freedom. Compromising is futile as our civil rights are now violated. We should no longer tolerate that continued violation.

      The logical solution to all this is for Congress to pass a law reiterating that the 2nd Amendment means exactly what it states – that the right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed. Consequently, all Federal, state and local laws or executive orders that infringe shall be considered unconstitutional, unenforceable, null and void, and are hereby revoked. Further, all those who do attempt to enforce these unconstitutional laws and orders shall be arrested and prosecuted in Federal courts under Section 242 of Title 18 – deprivation of rights under color of law.

      https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivation-rights-under-color-law

      In other words – no CCW licenses or peculiar weapons configurations needed in any states, territories or possessions of the United States, especially in those hotbeds of liberty like California, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts that would refuse to comply. Arresting and successfully prosecuting various states’ Attorneys General such as Massachusetts’ Maura Healey should prove effective.

  13. Fred says:

    What class of firearm will you pay for the privilege of carrying some places?

    See that “Class” category on your DL. Yes, you will get one of those on your gun permit now.

  14. Fûz says:

    I think we can get to nationwide CCW without legislation, if we get one or two good Justices seated in time for Peruta and a re-attack on NY or NJ’s (non)-licensing schemes.

    Due Process and Privileges and Immunities clauses.

  15. David W. says:

    I think one thing that will really tell whether or not the next 4 years will be good for Gun Rights is how much money the movie Miss Sloane makes. I’ve seen ads, and from what they are playing, litterally *anyone* who has any experience at all buying a gun will know its BS of the highest order.

    It says something along the lines of “This is a world where any nutjob can buy an assault rifle without an ID.”

    It had limited release on November 25th and has made about 130k. It has a budget of 18 million. If this is a big flop, I think Trump and his business sense will realize gun rights is likely to get him reelected.

    Considering he is tweeting SNL, I think he keeps a thumb on the heartbeat of pop culture non stop.

    One thing I am worried about is him banning, or taxing, those gun companies that have guns imported to sell under an American label. I think Springfield does that with some of it’s pistols right?

    • Miles says:

      Since the latest Star Wars movie, Rogue One, is due out in nine (9) days, I can almost guarantee that Miss Sloane will be yanked for the screen availability.
      I think that’s part of the definition of a flop.

      Money talks and we all know what walks.

    • Brad says:

      Even many liberal movie critics who love gun-control have been saying that movie is TV level quality and has a silly plot. Some non-liberal critics have described it as inducing eye-rolling and face-palming. The only consistent bright spot has been praise for the acting.

      I wouldn’t worry too much about that movie.

      • David W. says:

        Pretty much everyone with an IQ above room level thought the ghost busters remake was crap, but it was still seen by millions of people. Just because a movie is bad, doesn’t mean the hard core political message its screaming isn’t supported by the people watching it. How many feminists thought the idea of a private company fighting ghosts and being against the EPA would be a good movie? How many went to see it anyway because it was controversial and they wanted to support it?

        I’m not saying it will convince anyone to be pro, or anti, gun rights. I’m saying Trump has shown to be an avid consumer of popular culture and acts from what he sees. He is a nationalist populist, if 1/3rd of America sees the movie, despite the obvious anti gun tilt shown in the advertisements, he might assume being pro-gun would be a bad political move considering that many people are willing to pay 10 bucks and sit still for 2 hours to have propaganda poured into them.

        We (most active pro gun people) know gun control would pretty much end tomorrow if about 3 billionaires and the Joyce Foundation stop funding it. Not a lot of people pay that much attention to something if it’s not their pet political issue. I really doubt Trump, or that many of the people he’s putting to his cabinet positions or as advisors know as much as we do, just because its our pet issue. He might just ask “How much money did that anti gun movie make?” and base his decision from that.

        Think of all the movies that were universally panned but were loved by millions? American Sniper was hated by all Right Thinking People but still made the most money of any movie that year. I know there is pretty much zero chance of Miss Sloane being that popular, because it speaks to a group of people that pretty much every other movie that’s ever existed speaks to, but if it makes a decent amount of profit, Trump may be influenced by that. That’s pretty much the downside to populists. They are swayed by popular opinion, which changes quickly, rather than by ideology or personal beliefs, which change much more slowly. We all know what Obama wants, knowing what Trump wants can change in an instant.

  16. dustydog says:

    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Whether RKBA actually gets anything, depends entirely on the election demographic data. If gun owners swung PA, OH, WI, Iowa and FL to Trump, then we’ll get a thank you.

    Personally, every RKBA activist I know voted for Gary, because they had too much pride to vote for Trump. Admitting it was really a vote for Hillary, y’all were willing to accept her as president in order to not vote for Trump. If that holds true in the swing states – well, everyone expects the Trump administration to punish its enemies.

    • HSR47 says:

      I saw Trump as a life-long democrat running as a Republican while saying a lot of the right things.

      I saw Johnson as a life-long huckster running as a libertarian while campaigning as another idiot democrat.

      There was no way in hell I was going to vote for Johnson.

  17. Bryan says:

    Agreeing with most of what’s been said…
    1) 20, 15 or even 10 years ago any person with 2A interests could have never predicted where we’d be in their wildest dreams:
    • 2A recognized (however, imperfectly) in Heller & McDonald – 2A no longer beyond the Oort Cloud of Constitutional rights, now we’re maybe around Saturn. Helps bring Constitutional/philosophical justification to all who support 2A. “Collective rights” are not real, meaningful rights; however, individual rights are.
    • Roll back of the Clinton AWB – when it passed in 1994, I figured the 10 year ban would be reinstated permanently; now AR15 pattern rifles and other EBR’s are the best-selling and most popular firearms, military pattern rifles are quickly becoming “normalized” within the culture. Once “normalized” and accepted in gun culture these become harder to ban.
    • Shall-issue CCW permitting is now in the vast majority of states – and fairly well accessed/popular, Open carry and Constitutional carry are now moving forward in many states – and Republicans have control of the greatest number of state legislatures and governorships since the 1920’s; again helping “normalize” firearms and self-defense within the culture. Again, shall-issue helps make gun bans more difficult.

    2) Short-term goals with a Trump administration and a Republican majority:
    • Constitutionalist/originalist judges in the Supreme Court and all lower Federal courts – Trump’s list is pretty strong. Strong pro-2A judges might be the best way to protect gun rights nationwide and retrieve gun rights thought long lost. Already in Trump’s first 100 days to-do list.
    • National reciprocity – make sure it’s guarantees are ironclad so that NY, NYC, NJ, MA, CA, etc. cannot legally harass permit holders for magazine capacity or any particular make or model of gun – if the gun and magazine are legal in TX, ID, FL, UT, etc. it should be legal nationwide
    • Totally remove suppressors from the NFA. Suppressors are not firearms and I should be able to purchase a suppressor as easily as I buy a stock or pistol grip – no form or background check should be necessary. I honestly think SBR & SBS should be delisted as well. 16” is good but 15.99” is illegal – totally dumb and absurd. Removing suppressors and SBR/SBS from the NFA are totally doable.
    • Allow re-importation of US military aid M1 Garands, M1 carbines, M1911 pistols, etc. While, we’re at it is get rid of the 1989 Bush importation ban and other importation bans. To the best of my knowledge, these can all be reversed by executive order – easy-peasy for Trump’s first 100 days pen.

    3) Medium and longer-term:
    • Get rid of Hughes – I don’t think this is some sort of pie-in-the-sky fantasyland wish; this is totally doable, particularly with a Trump administration and Republican Congress. I’ve come to believe that until Hughes is repealed or NFA is totally reformed; the 2A is still endangered. All gun rights must be protected for any gun rights to be protected.
    • Get rid of all “sporting” language from US firearm laws, reform/repeal the GCA of 1968. The GCA of 1968 and its “sporting” language are the root of all sorts of shenanigans in the 2A.
    • Change the NICS to a BIDS system – there should be absolutely no possibility of any registration of guns or gun owners. No forms; paper, electronic or any other format. Destroy any forms or records that might exist. Establish real penalties; jail and heavy fines for any violations of keeping forms or registration records.
    • NRA must rebuild its ties to moderate Democrat politicians, rural Democrat politicians and any other pro-2A Democrats – this was key to the NRA’s long term success in the past and will be important for future success. The more Democrats are in the NRA’s camp (while not losing Republicans) the safer the 2A will be.
    • Grow all “sporting” use of firearms, particularly in youth: encourage new hunters, new target-shooters, grow high school & collegiate-level marksmanship teams. These could be tied to Federal education funding; can be easily justified on public safety and national defense grounds. Strive to make the shooting sports as popular and accessible in the US as they are in Switzerland. The more people who shoot, the safer the 2A is from infringement.

    • Stephen says:

      “20, 15 or even 10 years ago any person with 2A interests could have never predicted where we’d be in their wildest dreams”

      Absolutely true! I had given up on the 2a myself until about 1999. And then Columbine happened and I was ready to give up again. Now we’re stronger culturally than we’ve ever been.

      Oddly, though … 1 month ago, with a Hillary victory about nailed down and the Senate probably lost, I though the 2a was all but dead. Not because it doesn’t have the strongest support ever, but because Bloomberg and the Democrats have done a pretty good job of firewalling the 2nd amendment off from the liberal states they get their support from. If we can use Trump to get into those states, either through court proceedings or reciprocity or whatever (and I would support the latter even with some moderate limits) we hopefully can turn the tide and get through their wall.

      • HSR47 says:

        “Bloomberg and the Democrats have done a pretty good job of firewalling the 2nd amendment off from the liberal states they get their support from. If we can use Trump to get into those states, either through court proceedings or reciprocity or whatever (and I would support the latter even with some moderate limits) we hopefully can turn the tide and get through their wall.”

        This.

        If they can impose an AWB on us legislatively, then we should be able to do the latter the same way, in addition to carry reciprocity.

  18. Will says:

    The problem with having training requirements as part of reciprocity is how a hostile state can screw with it. Ever looked at the fiasco of the Armed Airline Pilots situation? The training and background reqs that the anti-gun idiots put on that basically eliminated it in all but name.
    Weird times and locations specified for training, at huge personal costs. Pilots that flew Air Force jets on weekends, qualified and rated for nuclear weapon delivery if the balloon went up, weren’t considered trustworthy enough to carry a handgun on a civilian plane.

    The airlines were given authority to ban carry, even if the pilot was licensed (with badge!). The pilots had to arrive at the airport with the gun locked in a case, and not uncase it until at the controls. Couldn’t carry it into the passenger area of the plane. The mandated holsters were a joke, and damn dangerous. (There is at least one bullet hole in a cockpit due to them.)

    The list of deliberately engineered problems just goes on and on. Oh, yes, they can AND WILL screw with ccw if a training req is added. Count on it.

    • rd says:

      Will,

      Maybe this is something that the attention from a new administration can fix. We are getting a new DHS head that might want to make some visible changes quickly.

      These are the common sense changes Trump should love.

  19. Jim Dunmyer says:

    A couple of fellas above have echoed my sentiments: if we get national reciprocity and the predicted “blood in the streets” once again fails to materialize, even the anti states will begin to be convinced.

    One argument against N.R. is “my state has much tougher training requirements than some others, and…” Best argument is “Michigan honors ANY state’s CPL if was issued by the carrier’s state of residence.” And Michigan has had no problems due to that “laxity”.

  20. rd says:

    National Reciprocity. Passing the US Senate is totally achievable. The Democrat Senators in red states will want to pass it if they want to be reelected in 2018. In Minnesota, the DFL convinced a lot of outstate (rural) DFL legislators that Shall Issue was the hill to die on, and they were right. Rural DFL legislators were massacred after they blocked MN Shall Issue. Do you think the Democrat Senator from Montana or North Dakota will fare any better by blocking national reciprocity? They have a choice, pass it, retire, or get thrown out. The NRA can also offer to help any real Pro 2A Democrat in 2018 or 2020 that supports nationwide carry, suppressors, and Pro Second Amendment Judges.

    Ditto the Hearing Protection Act.

    We do not have to wait for 2018. The smart, sane Democrats might also find their voices and save their party too.

    • HSR47 says:

      “The NRA can also offer to help any real Pro 2A Democrat in 2018 or 2020 that supports nationwide carry, suppressors, and Pro Second Amendment Judges.
      Ditto the Hearing Protection Act.
      We do not have to wait for 2018. The smart, sane Democrats might also find their voices and save their party too.”

      This in spades.

      Rank and file democrat legislators from American-occupied America need to be shown that gun owners are good at helping our friends and crucifying our enemies.

      The NRA’s support for Harry Reid was a nearly perfect example of what we need to do: Reid was in a position to stop bad bills from making it to the floor of the Senate. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the NRA’s endorsement of Reid had tangible benefits. If Reid had been an honest politician per Heinlein’s definition, the NRA would have continued to endorse and support him.

  21. rd says:

    The fight over Shall Issue was what made me Second Amendment First.

    I heard the lies over and over,
    BLOOD! In! The! STREETS!
    Wild Wild West Shootouts!
    Roadrage Massacres!
    Gunfights over Parking Spaces!

    Shall Issue passed, and nothing happened. Nothing!

    What happens in NYC, Massachusetts, California, and Maryland when nothing happens?

    State Shall Issue?

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. SayUncle » The future of the gun rights movement - […] An open thread. I think the only thing that is a certainty are supreme court picks. Everything else depends…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

top