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The Biggest Winner of 2016?

Even Bloomberg’s “The Trace” admits NRA was the big winner of the 2016 elections. Of their seven big ticket races, only Joe Heck of Nevada was a loss. Nevada is probably a solid blue state now. All groups use safe incumbents to bolster their win percentages, but we won most of the important races. The way I see it, here’s what we can hopefully accomplish, in order of importance.

  1. A good, strong solid replacement for Scalia.
  2. Another good, strong solid Justice replacing either Breyer or Ginsburg.
  3. If Kennedy chooses to retire, and he probably should, someone more solid to replace him.
  4. Civil rights legislation that rolls back state infringements on the RKBA.
  5. National reciprocity.
  6. Hearing Protection Act (delist suppressors from NFA).

The very first item of importance is the Supreme Court, because through the Supreme Court, we can preserve this right for generations. We can reverse our fortunes in states like New York, New Jersey and California. Behind that is Congressional legislation to restore Second Amendment rights using Congress’ Section 5 powers under the 14th Amendment. Even with a more “conservative” court, there are going to be some things that are better for Congress to do, like National Reciprocity, or establishing a sort of national preemption.

A lot of people will balk that I put delisting suppressors at the bottom of my list. That helps make things better for those of us in friendly states. Too many Americans, about a third,  are living in states where Second Amendment rights are routinely infringed upon. We have to fix that. We can’t allow people like Bloomberg to continue bifurcating this country into places where the Second Amendment is respected and valued and places it’s absolutely pissed upon. That’s not how our rights are supposed to work. Your right to free speech is the same in New York City as it is in Peoria. Your Second Amendment rights should be the same.

You should not fear your job moving to California, New York, and New Jersey and have to choose between your family and livelihood, and your Second Amendment rights. You should not be forced to leave your home to retain your rights because the powers that be in your state disapprove of it. The Bill of Rights guarantees birthrights for all Americans, hell for all humans. Restoring that idea for all of the Bill of Rights, not just rights favored by elites, should be our top priority.

46 Responses to “The Biggest Winner of 2016?”

  1. Joseph says:

    Looks like Trump is gonna squeeze out a victory in Michigan, Wisconsin turned Red, and, if Trump campaigned in Minnesota more, especially back in the summer, he would’ve won Minnesota, sweeping the 3 upper Great Lake States, totaling 36 Electoral Votes. Also remember that Trump flipped Pennsylvania, despite being outspent 10 to 1,and out “ground-gamed” by Clinton and the Democrats in the Keystone State. Let the left “celebrate” winning Nevada. The GOP has an AMAZING opportunity to capture the majority of the Great Lake States. Also, looking at election returns in Ohio, Trump may have turned Ohio into a Ruby-Red State.

    • stephana says:

      Ohio has been getting redder every election, except for the large city cesspools. After many years of democrat control, we finally got a republican controlled senate, house and governor. 8 billion in debt quickly became a balanced budget with lowered taxes which increased jobs. The people noticed.

  2. CarlosT says:

    I’m leary of national preemption. It seems like a sword with very sharp double edges. Sure, it could be used to guarantee rights across the country, but then if gun controllers get power again, it could be used against us just as easily.

    • Stephen says:

      I don’t really understand this viewpoint. It’s not like gun controllers will only try to restrict us at the Federal level if we pass pre-emption. The moment they get enough votes they’ll pass whatever they can. Federal Pre-emption just means we’ll no longer have to battle state by state and it’s one more thing anti-gunners have to undo in order to do what they want.

      But make no mistake — if Pelosi or Schumer can get the votes it’ll be “OK, Mr. and Mrs. America, turn ’em over!”

      • AnOregonian says:

        I’m thinking it’s more like they will find creative readings of the law that they use to go after things they never could otherwise.

        Think of things like the attempted M855 ban, 41F, MA AG’s weapon ban, or probably countless other cases I can’t recall at the moment.

        • Sebastian says:

          That’s why you make sure when you write a law, you write a good and clear one. They can always use Congress to screw us if they get power. It’s no reason to not try to make things better when we have power.

          • AnOregonian says:

            I’m certainly not advocating not doing it. Just be aware because things that everyone takes for granted have been twisted and distorted beyond all measure.

            After all, who would have ever thought that we’d need to define what the “core” of a bullet is.

            And not to mention fixing it if we screw up is monumentally difficult.

            • Chris from AK says:

              1. Definitions
              a. Any firearm, accessory, magazine, ammunition type, or other related component that has ever been used in the National Matches is presumed to be in common usage for lawful purposes. This includes but is not limited to all authorized service rifle and service pistol firearm configurations, standard capacity magazines, optics and sighting devices, ammunition and calibers.

              b. Any firearm, accessory, magazine, ammunition type, or other related component that is in current use by civilian federal law enforcement is presumed to be in common usage for lawful purposes.

              c. Any firearm, accessory, magazine, ammunition type, or other related component that is in current use by the state police or similar civil law enforcement agencies of a state is presumed to be in common usage for lawful purposes in that state.

              2. No state shall restrict the sale, transfer or possession of any of the above firearms are accessories presumed to be in common usage.

              3. States may regulate the public discharge of the above firearms.

              4. Severability clause

              Boom. Something like that, cleaned up by lawyers, would cover your military standard arms suitable for militia usage (everything from M1s to AR-15s) as well as your civil arms, and codify the “good for the goose good for the gander” principle.

              • Hank Archer says:

                Well done!

              • Ian Argent says:

                Current or previous use. You don’t want (completely ridiculous example) Glock 19s going out of “common use” because they were all replaced by something else.

                You also need a pre-emption clause for “prohibited person,” I’d think – that a state’s definition cannot be more strict than the federal.

              • Publius says:

                Why stop there?

    • Trust me, whether we pass it or not, they will pass bans if they get back in power. A few years of such a law without problems will make it uncontroversial like shall-issue.

      • Nick L. says:

        ” A few years of such a law without problems will make it uncontroversial like shall-issue.”

        From your lips to Charlton Heston’s ears.

  3. Papa says:

    I think no. 6 should include removing the barrel length foolishness from NFA. It infuriates me that our gov’t has killed people over that garbage(Ruby Ridge). I realize that may be a tougher fight than just “delisting” silencers, but it serves no useful purpose. I think a rewrite of NFA should be on the table.

    • Alpheus says:

      If we could revoke the NFA, I think that would be even better, but I’m not quite sure if we have the political capital to do that.

      Of course, I’d like to repeal *all* gun laws, and that’s even less politically tenable! :-(

      • Bryan says:

        I’ve become convinced in the last few years that the only way to protect any guns is to protect all guns (including NFA). Probably the best way to do that is with impeccable originalist judges from the the USSC on down. Recognition of 2A rights will hopefully be like the 1950-‘s-60’s Civil Rights movement – successful over time, in the end.

        In the short term, I think we have a sympathetic ear with Trump, etal. We should be able to get: 1) a good restocking of the courts with originalist judges, 2) National Reciprocity – hopefully, with preemption so you don’t have to worry about magazine capacity going from state to state, 3) legislative delisting of suppressors and SBR’s and 4) overturning executive orders prohibiting importation on “non-sporting” firearms (Imbel FAL’s, etc…) and military aid firearms (reimport M1 Garands).

        If Hughes is to be repealed in the near-term; it’d have to be put into a must-pass bill. Long-term, I want to get rid of all “sporting” language from all federal firearms laws, repeal of Hughes (scrap the whole NFA) and a conversion from the current NICS system to a BIDS system.

  4. AnOregonian says:

    Agreed and logically put. Though in terms of deal making and messaging it would need to be portrayed differently.

    For example, I think it’s a mistake to ask for only silencers, we may only get silencers (but hopefully more), but ask for more to start so there’s something to ‘compromise’ on.

    Similarly with the priority, while silencers, SBRs, SBSs, and MGs are getting the lime light, you can get more of the important stuff on the side.

  5. Archer says:

    The very first item of importance is the Supreme Court, because through the Supreme Court, we can preserve this right for generations. We can reverse our fortunes in states like New York, New Jersey and California.

    I’d like to point out, real quick, that just like in the election, all eyes are on the highest office — the Supreme Court — which pulls attention away from the “down-ticket” races.

    The President doesn’t just nominate SCOTUS justices. He/she nominates ALL federal judges, including “down-ticket” Circuit Court of Appeals judges.

    We will certainly need a strong SCOTUS in the long term, but in the short term it’s equally important to knock some sense insert sensible nominees into the Circuit Courts (especially the 2nd and 9th). If we can turn the tide in the lower courts, maybe we won’t be forced to rely so heavily on SCOTUS to intervene, with all the additional time, effort, and money that requires.

  6. beatbox says:

    I was critical of the NRA jumping in so early with both feet to endorse Trump. Now of course, they look like geniuses. They are by far the biggest national organization to support him in voice and dollars.

    Good incentive for him to do the right thing by gun owners.

    (and I hope he turns his back on every other organization that endorsed him)

  7. Patrick Henry, the 2nd says:

    Good good list. I agree, suppressors should be on the table, but at the bottom . I’d LOVE National Reciprocity

  8. Geoff says:

    The problem with National Reciprocity is that your carry permit is valid everywhere, but NOT YOUR GUN. 17+1 pistol? Forget NJ, NY, and the other States with mag limits. Hollow Point SD Ammo? Forget NJ and any place else that says no to them. The gun restrictions would have to be fought in the courts and ruled unconstitutional.

    • ACS says:

      Baby steps. Access to 10 rounds still beats no access to 17, and FMJ is still better than a pointed stick.

    • Sebastian says:

      I want to say that the last bill made it legal to carry any handgun that was legal under federal law and not an NFA item. So it preempted the states from being able to regulate that kind of thing for out-of-staters.

  9. HappyWarrior6 says:

    It’s just amazing to see Sebastian waxing triumphant again. Four years of no debbie downers on here would be a welcome addition as well!

    • Alpheus says:

      I’m perfectly fine with “debbie downers”, if they have solid reasons for being down (even if those reasons are wrong).

      Let’s get our concerns out in the open! If we don’t do that, then we’ll become isolated and perhaps even lose opportunities to take actions to preserve our rights.

  10. Bram says:

    I lived in Nevada 20 years ago. It was solid red but people were worried about the tidal wave of California idiots arriving to escape their own bad voting habits.

  11. “Your right to free speech is the same in New York City as it is in Peoria.” Ditto for abortion and same-sex marriage, neither of which are explicit rights in the Constitution, unlike RKBA.

    • Brad says:

      Heh, as I like to say, if America respected gun-rights to the same extent it respects abortion-rights, America would have government subsidized machine-guns provided to minors without parental consent!

  12. Hank Archer says:

    National Reciprocity needs to be written saying that the carrier has to obey all the regulations of his home state. No traveler can be expected to know and understand all the Byzantine laws of every state’s CCW laws. Invoke some sort of “prudent man” standard.

  13. Shawn says:

    We’s probably all love to see the NFA repealed in whole. At least the hughes ammendment. Something like that would hit the anti-gunners so bad they physically explode.

    Of course that may be too much to ask for even now. I’d like to see National reciprocity and silencers taken off the NFA. I’m pretty sure now we can start smacking down all those insane infringements in LA/SF.

    • Miles says:

      If you’re going to ‘go’ for it, ask for more than what you want.
      Start with National Reciprocity, complete repeal of NFA34, and then do “the art of the deal”.
      President Trump will understand that.

  14. Richard says:

    A word on NV. Yeah we have had a lot of in-migration from CA and yeah Harry Reid is/was a force to be reckoned with. But the main reason the state was lost is terrible Republican party leadership.

    In 2014, Republicans captured the governorship and both houses of the legislature for the first time in decades. They used this opportunity to pass the biggest tax increase in NV history. Needless to say that discouraged and angered conservatives. Then you have Joe Heck’s un-endorsement of Trump. Heck lost by 20,000 votes. There were 40,000 None of the Above votes. It is reasonable to assume that almost all of these were Republicans hacked off by the un-endorsement. Heck led in the polls until he did this. Fortunately, this boneheaded move did not cost Senate control. A Republican member of the House did this too, and lost. The Republican governor, in the primary season first supported Bush, then Rubio, then Kasich!?. After the nomination, he never did endorse Trump. If the leadership had acted like Republicans, the state could have been won.

  15. Regarding Nevada, a friend of mine from grad school at UNC who is head of the poli sci dept at UN-Reno had this to say. Eric has been a long-time observer of Nevada politics.

    “Nevada was blue (Tuesday) night, but I don’t know this is a locked-in trend,” said Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno. “Just two years ago there was a massive red wave that flipped the state Assembly for the first time since the 1930s and all six statewide offices went Republican. It suggests Nevada is still a swing state.”

    Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article113998483.html#storylink=cpy

    • Brad says:

      Gee, and here I was, writing Nevada off the good state list because of the 2016 election results. Shows what I know.

      (Writing as a Commiefornia refugee planning to vote with his feet in the near future) good information to have. Thanks!

  16. Bret says:

    As a CA gun owner, I am thrilled at the federal change in luck, because CA is so lost that the ammo background checks passed with 63% support (even when fellow liberal state NY passed something similar and gave up trying to implement it because it was so ill advised!) Have enjoyed reading your blog for some time and glad to see the great state of PA play a pivotal role, even in securing the rights of a Californian.

  17. I never get tired of watching this video clip with Chuck Todd and Tom Brokaw. The good part starts at about 12 seconds in.

    https://iqmediacorp.com/ClipPlayer/?ClipID=927ccee0-6def-442c-8145-d16410ed3fa8

  18. osb says:

    I love Thomas (my favorite Justice) but he is so old he needs to retire in the next too years. It would be hard to replace him though.

    • dollup15 says:

      Thomas only 68, you really think that is too old? Alito is only two years younger than him!

  19. dollup15 says:

    Somewhat off topic given that it is a state and not a national issue, but what are the prospects of getting state preemption passed in PA now that the election is over? Senate Bill 1330 would have done that, and while it passed in the Senate, it died in committee in the House (presumably due to a threat of veto by Wolf, and it not passing with a veto-proof majority in the Senate).

    However, following the elections, the GOP now has a two-thirds majority in the state Senate (34 to 16), and an increased majority in the state House (122 to 81). Preemption has never had trouble getting a veto-proof majority in the state House in the past.

    Anyone think we can get preemption done now?

  20. Chris from AK says:

    Federal reciprocity for CCW is a good short term goal. There are bills pending in Congress right now. It could be a “first hundred days” agenda item, a quick win that gets some bipartisan support (possibly a filibuster proof majority in the Senate). While lower in priority than SCOTUS the power of quick wins shouldn’t be discounted.

    As for NV… The local boots on the ground were overwhelmed. NRA had something like 2-3 hired guns with swag to hand out. About two dozen volunteers were actively and routinely involved in Clark County. A bunch more were part-time engaged.

    On the other side, the big unions fueled by Bloomberg money and allied with other leftist causes had a massive get out the vote campaign with hundreds of paid get out the vote types.

    Not blaming NRA — they ran ads and put boots on the ground within the limited resources. But gun owners in NV need to wake up quick. Maybe playing defense in their legislature for the next few years will be a warning call for a state that has traditionally enjoyed pretty reasonable gun laws.

  21. Alpheus says:

    I think now would be a good time to dust off a Glenn Reynolds Instapundit proposal: Congress ought to create a list of judges that the President can choose from; if he chooses from this list, those judges are fast-tracked through the nomination process, but if not, Congress can just hold hearings to confirm whomever the President chooses.

    So far, we’ve only been practicing the “concent” part of “advise and consent”. This proposal would add in an “advise” component. This will also help us keep Trump honest when it comes to appointing judges!

  22. Ed says:

    The Second Amendment applies to the states, as does the other Amendments in the Bill of Rights. It is not too much of a logical stretch to understand that all state laws and Federal laws infringing on the right to keep and bear arms are in violation of the restrictions on government spelled out in the Second Amendment. There are sufficient laws in place restricting usage, such as those banning assault and battery with deadly weapons.

    When we can again openly carry a firearm in a Post Office without prior government permission in all states, territories and possessions of the United States without threat of punitive government action, we will again be free. Accept nothing less.

  23. Brad says:

    Sebastian,

    Well said! You really should forward this to someone connected to the Trump administration.

    “You should not fear your job moving to California, New York, and New Jersey and have to choose between your family and livelihood, and your Second Amendment rights. You should not be forced to leave your home to retain your rights because the powers that be in your state disapprove of it. The Bill of Rights guarantees birthrights for all Americans, hell for all humans. Restoring that idea for all of the Bill of Rights, not just rights favored by elites, should be our top priority.”

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