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Jun 17, 2016
The gun control folks are targeting Heidi Heitcamp, the only pro-gun Democrat left in the Senate. Holding out the possibility that Everytown thinks attacking Heitcamp helps her (which it probably does in North Dakota), they would be foolish to weaken her, and here’s why:
This is what the 2018 Senatorial Elections look like. You have potential Dem pickups, if they are very lucky, in Nevada. The rest the GOP has a solid lock on. But the potential GOP pickups are pretty astounding, assuming the GOP doesn’t blow it, which I have full confidence they can do! But some of those pickups are probably a given, even if the typical suck sets in.
The main reason I’m not dumping on Toomey too much, even though he’s pissed me off and lied to us, is because I need his R ass in that seat, and even though he’s a worm, if he wins he’ll keep the Dems from picking up that seat.
The Dems just need to pick up 5 of those, and we’re defending a lot of purple states this time. We don’t really have any plausible pickups except for maybe Nevada, but probably not, unless we’re very lucky, and the GOP is not usually lucky. We have a whole lot to lose. Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Florida. Do you feel good about that map? I don’t.
If the Dems were to pick up the Senate in 2016 and the White House, the Second Amendment is almost certainly dead, since the Heller and McDonald decisions would either be reversed or limited to their specific facts (which is pretty useless unless you live in Chicago or DC). If we lose the Senate, and win the White House, we’re more likely to get another Souter, since the Dems are certain to block all but the squishiest nominee. So the GOP has to hold the Senate in 2016 if we’re going to hold the line.
Jun 13, 2016
The antis are putting the pressure on Senator Toomey to embrace the terror watch list bill, or face ads saying the Senator supports arming terrorists. Be sure to call Pat Toomey’s office and persuade him. Tell him you have no compunctions about leaving him off your ballot in November if he turns. Say this even if you plan already to not vote for him because of his past sins. I believe in redemption if he rediscovers where his interest lie.
“Pat Toomey has worked to allow suspected terrorists to buy guns in this country and that is just an outrageous position,” McGinty, challenging Toomey in one of the country’s most critical Senate races, said in a telephone interview. “Of all the kind of tough issues, this one should not be a tough call.”
Unless you don’t believe people should be stripped of fundamental constitutional rights because of being put on a secret government list, where only the FBI knows the criteria to get on, and there is no process for getting off. I appreciate it if Senator Toomey would stand up for due process of law and for the Heller and McDonald decisions. This gets to the fundamental core of how we treat fundamental constitutional rights. Toomey can’t turn on this issue and still claim to believe in the Second Amendment. I know civil liberties are currently out of style with the American left, but someone has to stand up for them.
Jun 13, 2016
I’ll offer this with no comment:
Jun 6, 2016
Hillary is starting to feel the Bern ahead of the California primary, with some polls showing Sanders pulling ahead. I’m cheering for Bernie. I worry he might actually be harder to beat in the general election than Hillary, but I think we have to worry less about the Joe Biden switcheroo if Bernie can take the race outright. That’s probably why Obama is endorsing Hillary.
I’m also cheering Bernie because Bloomberg’s gun control groups have endorsed Hillary Clinton, like that comes with more than a few thousand votes nationwide. You can read their article in the Sacramento Bee:
Our litmus test for candidates is that simple. Do they side with the public, or with the gun lobby, whose vision is at odds with creating a safer country?
Oh, that is rich. NRA has five million members, and generally speaking is supported in increments of 25 dollars from its mostly-not-rich members.
Everytown and Mom’s Demand Action is funded almost entirely by a single megalomaniacal billionare, and suddenly they are the public? The gun control movement was dying before Bloomberg came along and flushed it with fresh cash, and it was dying because the public wasn’t engaged enough in the issue to keep these organizations alive.
I’ll be cheering for Bernie tomorrow. A Bernie win would show their endorsement isn’t worth much, even in a Dem primary.
Jun 2, 2016
Local news is reporting NRA has hired a campaign manager to run the campaign to stop Bloomberg’s Question 1 on the November ballot. A few days ago they were promoting a new infographic:
The fight in Washington State seemed to be mired in strategy disputes, but hopefully we’ll have a unified front in Nevada and at the least trim Bloomberg’s margin if not outright beat him. Remember that Bloomberg also has a ballot measure up in Maine as well.
Ballot fights are hugely expensive, and while Bloomberg has the money to keep doing this, he might be reluctant to blow a lot of money on a risky proposition. We have to make these ballot measures risky for him. As long as it’s a sure thing, he’ll keep doing it. Bloomberg is already back in Washington State for another slice of the cake in 2016.
Jun 2, 2016
The quote in the title is from NRA Pennsylvania State Liaison John Hohenwarter, in an Inquirer article about Philadelphia’s new “gun safety” bills. Any time the media promotes the other side’s preferred terms like “gun safety” they cease to be journalists and instead make themselves propagandists. The bill in question is a “safe storage” law that is a middle finger raised directly at the Heller decision. But as we saw with the Jackson case, the Supreme Court is unwilling to enforce this provision of Heller, even while Justice Scalia was still alive.
John Hohenwarter is right though. The City can pass all the ordinances it would like, but it can’t enforce them. That would raise standing and allow us to defeat the ordinance. Eventually we’ll get enhanced preemption once again, where we don’t have to wait for enforcement. It may take another eight years, but eventually we’ll get it.
May 21, 2016
A comment of mine on other Social Media corners of the Internet, even though I hate social media like a smoker who can’t quit really but ought to:
Seriously, if you had told me at the 2014 convention in Indianapolis that NRA would end up endorsing a dark horse candidate from Manhattan as their preferred candidate for President at the 2016 convention in Louisville (where he won that state), I’d have testified at your commitment hearing. But hey, it’s 2016, and we’re all crazies now.
It’s a mad, mad world.
May 18, 2016
New York is considering a ban on declawing cats. But of course: in New York, we declaw people instead. I get that declawing is pretty gruesome, but like most feel-good legislation (gun control being only one example) things aren’t so cut and dry. The unintended side effect (and there always is one when you use the force of the state to bend people to your will) will likely be more cats being put down after frustrated owners dump their problem felines on overflowing shelters. Pick your evil.
May 10, 2016
Ace of Spades notes:
But I don’t think I’m going to be adapting my views to the socially-conservative mainstream any longer, because I’m not sure these views are actually the Republican mainstream any longer. I knew social conservatism wasn’t quite as believed as was claimed; I knew many politicians claimed to be pro-life who were in fact pro-choice, and I knew many of the Beltway class of advisers, think-tank workers, etc. were pro-choice, or more pro-choice than the GOP was as a formal matter. They were certainly more pro-gay (if not always actually pro-gay-marriage).
This is what I’ve been saying. Trump took every southern state East of the Mississippi. The SoCo emperor has been shown to have no clothes. Whether you vote for Trump or not, I think there’s opportunity here for those who don’t believe in fighting culture wars using government. I’m just now sure how to exploit it.
I think the overall issue of this election is that the working class never recovered from the Financial Crisis of 2008, all the while DC elites were busy waging culture wars rather than helping said working class. Trump is the backlash. To a large degree Bernie is that same backlash reflected in the Democratic Party, but they’ve been able to keep Bernie down better because the Dems are actually less Democratic.
At the end of the day people will vote their pocketbook before anything else, and Trump and Sanders are talking pocketbook issues. That’s why “free shit” works on people, provided other people are paying for it. Cracking down on immigration sounds great if you’ve seen your wages depressed through competition with people who can live on less than you do. I think people who work for a living are tired of culture warrioring, which is honestly an hobby for elites. While they are falling further and further behind, the elites are arguing about bathrooms. Think of the absurdity of that, and you can understand why they’re willing to elect someone like Trump or Sanders.
May 5, 2016
Still quite busy with clients. Tomorrow should be better. But Cruz and Kasich have thrown in the towel. Part of me wants to celebrate with a drink! But then I have to consider that makes Trump the presumptive nominee for the 2016 race, which makes me want to have several drinks, maybe enough that I black out until after the elections in November.
I know at least one lobbyist in DC who is happy with the current state of affairs because the right people are hyperventilating over the idea of Trump being the nominee. I think the silver lining (for me at least) is that the SoCo groups in DC that claim to speak for christians and evangelicals are the most hyperventilating of the hyperventilators. So are the K-street consultants that have made a living ruining talented candidates with their bullshit, then moving on to ruin the next campaign. Trump won nearly every state east of the Mississippi, including southern states in the Bible Belt; states that Huckabee did very well in talking about what kind of “Jesus juice” he drank. All Trump did was say he was a Presbyterian. So where does the DC religious right political establishment stand from here? Their best hope is for Hillary to beat Trump, as seems likely if you believe the polling (which I don’t). I could almost enjoy this except for the fact that a lot of other issues I care about will likely get flushed down the crapper too.
The choice is made! The Traveler has come!