I wish I had shorted the pound, because once I read Charles C.W. Cooke’s article that suggested “Stay” had become the position all right thinking people held, I said to Bitter “That means ‘Stay’ is over-polling and ‘Leave’ has a real shot.” But I’m not a finance-minded person. I don’t even know how you short a currency. Polling is becoming unreliable because when you make “All sensible people support The Silly Party” type positions, people lie to pollsters. Even Charles C.W. Cooke agrees:
As in 2015, the simple answer was that the public lies to pollsters. And who can blame it? I have spent quite a lot of time in the U.K. over the last month, and I have been startled by the condescension, the disdain, and the downright bullying that I have seen from advocates within the Remain camp.
By the same token, if you notice Hillary and Donald close in polling, it probably means The Donald is ahead. Trump has become the “no respectable and intelligent person would ever vote for” candidate. So people will lie to pollsters. This also explains why “expanded background checks” polls at 90% while in deep blue Washington it only pulled in 59% of the vote. Gun control has almost always way over-polled.
The Brexit Internets have to go to Tam on this one, upon news of hearing the pound was getting pounded:
I’m going to go stand in the beer aisle at the grocery store and wait for them to mark down the Boddington’s.
— Tamara K. (@TamSlick) June 24, 2016