I’m just going to say “not helping.”
It’s clear that Dudley Brown knows nothing about the political climate here in Pennsylvania. I haven’t seen any PA-specific approval ratings lately that indicate any kind of serious plunge or distrust of Obama, but aside from that issue, their messaging for a blue state is terrible. Brown chooses to focus on questioning whether Pat Toomey is a true conservative. Well, in a state like Pennsylvania, being less than perfectly conservative (or at least perceived as such) is a good thing. It’s clear that Pennsylvania doesn’t want hardcore conservatives.
Fortunately, according to PoliticsPA, the ad buy is small and limited to cable.
Don’t assume that this is a “support Toomey no matter what he does to us” kind of post. I’m really not a fan at the moment, and I’m not going to forget it when the next election comes about. But as a person who actually lives in the suburbs of Philly that make such a huge difference in Pennsylvania elections, I can say that this messaging is off. I’m just glad that it is years out from the election. Hopefully Brown will stay out of Pennsylvania politics again because he clearly doesn’t know how to message to voters here. Portraying Toomey as someone the right expects to be an extreme conservative isn’t the way to win votes of squishy GOP and moderate voters.
He’s based in Virginia but that hasn’t helped with his Virginia messaging either. Had small ad buys (about $100,000) against Cantor (who never did anything even close to showing support for Obama’s gun control) and Rigell (in VA-2 who made the mistake of trying to appear like he was finding a compromise by signing on to a bill sponsored by two gun grabbers aimed at stopping “trafficking”). Brown got some press out of his hit on Rigell but the Cantor attack did not even attract any press when he rolled out his ad in Richmond.
“He’s based in Virginia…”
Actually, Brown is based in Colorado. It is the people he fronts for and who handle a lot of the behind-the-scenes operations and tactics that are based in VA. They are the same people who are behind other “liberty” themed fronts like Campaign for Liberty, National Right to Work, etc., etc. But, they have fronts everywhere.
After horribly failing in Colorado, Dudley brown takes his poorly named “NAGR” to fail miserably in other states.
I’ve gotten quite a few emails from NAGR, mostly generating fear over UN treaties and the immigration bill with its ‘secret gun registry’. Even from my non-lawyerly point of view, I find them ridiculous in claims.
Bit bucket.
My first guess is that any NAGR move in PA is just mining for money and email addresses, not necessarily in that order. But, I would watch cautiously for the emergence of any new, NAGR-connected state group. I don’t see things like the Toomey ad doing much harm, but we don’t need another Religious Right front organization using PA gun rights to lure unsuspecting gun owners into their camp. I would watch closely for some new group playing footsie with Daryl Metcalfe.
“the ad buy is small and limited to cable.”
I perhaps shouldn’t comment, because it has been more than twenty years since I’ve done it, but at one time a cable buy was far more efficient than a broadcast buy in terms of potential voters reached per dollar. So if you are worried about the Toomey ad, then it may be bad news for you, that the money was spent on cable.
It is much easier with cable to focus your message to a particular demographic or particular geographic/cultural area.
For what it’s worth today: We utilized cable ads almost exclusively in a county-wide campaign for a minor party candidate. While we didn’t win (of course) we nonetheless got more votes than any minor party candidate ever had to that time; about four times more than a comparable candidate a couple years earlier who had spent five times as much, mostly on print media and broadcast radio ads.
Toomey ran as the religious right’s guy, not that that is necessarily a problem as I have mentioned before as most card carrying members are also pro-gunners and we should be courting them. I myself went to a dinner for him in Lancaster sponsored by the PA Family Institute back when he was running against Arlen Specter, so the comparison in the video is a valid one. When he spoke, he seemed to know why he was challenging Specter (and the whole establishment posse). He was very close to winning, and then he eventually won. It’s a shame he thinks that kowtowing to that same establishment he ran against is what brought him over the top. His next election will be a much different landscape.
I do see your point about mixing issues and running a smart campaign for PA. This issue will come up many more times by 2014. My hope is we will have more folks in the pro-gun movement who see themselves running for office who know the needs of their area. Running as a “conservative” or even a liberal in PA won’t score you many points with a name. It’s why Allyson Schwartz is now downplaying her associations with abortion clinics and her consistent votes for Obama policies.
“most card carrying members are also pro-gunners and we should be courting them…”
If they are sincere I welcome their support, and will weigh against their approach to other issues. However, freedom is a package deal and if their pitching theocratic authoritarianism on one had while claiming they are all for firearms freedom on the other, I am going to rate them as the Liars for Jesus I’m sure they are.
Many, perhaps most of those people use firearms rights as a decoy issue to attract us as supporters for themselves and thus their agenda. Toomey is a good example of that. I pegged him as an anti-gun Liar fcr Jesus well more than ten years ago.
Try to stay from Dudley Brown. He’s like a fungus that spoils everything. A mercenary fungus.
There is no way for you or me to know where the money goes, but with most fronts for the Religious Right, it appears a lot of money gets diverted to supporting “other” issues. Why, for example, would the RRs be using National Right to Work as a front? Yes, they are funded by industry, but what is their theological interest in expending the energy?
http://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/case/Dkt_78-Entire_Pleading.pdf
SPLC is even more odious than Dudley Brown IMO.
Toomey is most likely finished regardless of this ad buy. He will be running for reelection in 2016, a presidential election year. You can bet the farm there will be heavy democratic turnout, particularly if their hero Hillary is the nominee. Toomey needed every conservative vote he could get, and he has probably ensured that a significant number will never forgive him for his 2A betrayal. Serves him right in my opinion, although I am quite sure the democrat that takes his seat will be far worse.
Toomey will never again get my vote. And it’s nice to see those ads countering all the crap ads telling people to support Toomey gun reg efforts. We will get what we deserve one way or another better spread the 2a message now and wake up the burb turds money is running out.
I’m not hear to tell you to vote for Toomey since I definitely don’t know what the race will look like in 2016. However, I will suggest that maybe you should reconsider how you speak about your potential allies who you absolutely do need to show up on Election Day to get Your Candidate (whoever that might be) elected. Calling the people who make or break statewide elections for pro-gun candidates “turds,” especially here on a blog post written by a gun rights supporter in the ‘burbs of Pennsylvania, isn’t exactly a way to win friends or convert people to your cause.