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A Little 2012 Newsflash

I think there’s a difference between “we’re winning” in the cultural sense and “we’re winning” in the political sense. I don’t think I need to remind people that sometimes something that is highly unpopular and opposed by many people can “win” in the political sense. *cough*Obamacare*cough*

Sebastian already pointed out that we have a Democrat who represents a more suburban/rural part of Pennsylvania running on a platform of gun bans and ammunition control – and he’ll win his race without putting out any serious effort this November!

If my list is up-to-date, we’ll have lost 23 lawmakers in Harrisburg to legislative retirements throughout 2012. Twelve of those are A or A+ rated by NRA. When I went to look up their last opponents to get an idea of what the new races could mean for gun owners, 2/3 of those districts were last challenged by declared or presumed anti-gunners. Folks, that’s an awful lot of pro-gun votes to have at risk.

Think about what a battle it was for us to pass the last Castle Doctrine measure here in Pennsylvania – that fight went across multiple governors. That was simply Castle Doctrine that allows you to defend yourself on your own property, and yet gun owners had to work very had to make that happen. I personally don’t think we can afford to lose any allies in Harrisburg if a simple self-defense bill took so much time and energy.

Culturally, we’re making progress. Politically, we’re still at a very dangerous time for gun rights in many areas.

6 Responses to “A Little 2012 Newsflash”

  1. Marcus says:

    Tim Holden’s stance could best be described as right down the middle. Cartwright is about as far left as you can go. Now here is the challenge for Cartwright. He has a win in an area that was won by McCain by 10pts in 2008, remember Holden won too in 2008. I don’t see BHO picking up more than 50% of the vote this time around. Tim won because he reflected the cultural and social values of the people of the coal region and that was how he voted in D.C. I don’t think Moosic lawyer Cartwright is going to be seen as “one of us” by the Skooks. In 80 some days well know what happens, but I don’t think it’s in the bag for Cartwright. Holden was the victim of low voter turnout and having never had a serious challenge in the last 20 years.

  2. Dannytheman says:

    I try to meet my elected officials and then write to them often. I always meet with the people I am interested in electing to get a sense of them. Not many people do that anymore. It is hard enough to get a letter writing campaign together without supplying them a form already written.

    I actually ask them if they will uphold their oath or was it just ceremonial to them?
    I tell them my beliefs and hope I can be reached to offer my input on various items. I inform them that I have a small e mail distribution list of like minded people in their voting district that I can inform of issues. They of course take that as a perfect way to solicit me for funds. (Some people get turned off by this, I do not)

  3. Harold says:

    No man is an island and all that, but this is in part a Uhh…who do you mean we, pale-face?” situation.

    Sucks to be you in a state turning Blue, a color your complexion might be taking in due course. Nice to be me in a state that’s very possibly going from Purple to Red (at the very least some Democrats in the St. Louis area will be spending more time with their families after 2010 Census redistricting, thankfully including the execrable Russ Carnahan).

    I do feel your pain, I too did my time in Massachusetts before escaping for better climates, before their AW ban and new excesses … although I suspect it remains to be seen just how bad it will get for you. I.e. will it just be no more positive legislation? Bad judges reversing good legislation, like ours’ selected under the bogus “Missouri Plan” nullifying our Castle Doctrine? Or will the politicians try to take away significant gun rights you’ve enjoyed for a long time? People don’t tend to like the latter, and don’t you have one the highest per-capita CCW license rates in the country?

    • Bitter says:

      For a serious response to your comment, you’re wrong to assume that this is a red/blue issue. The anti-gun Democrat I mentioned replaced another Democrat. What we’re talking about in that case is a radicalization of the party on the issue, not simple red/blue numbers. That seat was always Democratic, but more blue dog-style.

      Secondly, even if it were down to pure red/blue partisan politics, where do you think these people are headed next? That’s right, other formerly red and purple states. So, it’s not worth ignoring. It means you’ll see the same kind of attacks. Don’t sit back and pat yourself on the back for being protected at the moment. Not to mention, it’s still a setback politically for the rest of you.

      The new anti-gun Congressman will be lobbying for more gun control among his peers in DC. Guess who that impacts, too? That’s right, you. Not to mention, it’s not like we’re seriously turning back the dial on excessive gun control in the previous seats of anti-gun activity. It would be one thing if Pennsylvania was slowly turning anti-gun, but, say, New Jersey was loosening up their restrictions at a similar pace. It’s not happening that way. So, while you may rejoice in the kind political climate you live in now, what’s happening here now may well be what happens to the next generation in your backyard.

      • Harold says:

        Agreed that at the moment it’s not really a Red/Blue issue, but with the polarization/radicalization/purification of at least the Democratic party it could well become that over time. For the purpose of my initial comment I was using it as a proxy for pro/anti-gun … but living in a state with a blue dog conservative (in most ways except for voter fraud) Democratic governor who just signed several pro-RKBA laws, obviously it’s not strictly true.

        The national party as a whole may not be able to make it true at the lower levels … but its toxicity very well could. I’d say a lot depends on Obama’s fate this November; reelection could result in continued polarization and toxicity for a while. Failure then or continued failure in office could result in the party drawing back from the brink, as it started to do under and in response to Clinton (under, in various policies like what goes for fiscal sanity in D.C., in response, to his and Gore’s gun-grabbing). (And there are many other outcomes, the party dies due to its unfulfillable promises and is replaced by the Republicans and a new party replaces the latter, etc.)

        I want to think some more about your latter points, but the collapse of the Blue Model (see especially the moderate Walter Russell Mead’s postings and articles on this) is critical in forcing the migrations that e.g. are said to be messing up Pennsylvania. Someone else as I recall commented this was a Philadelphia to inner suburbs to now outer suburbs movement, with the infamous pattern first noted with California of the people escaping Blue Model hellholes immediately turning around and reconstructing the same.

        The Blue Model is terminal, there just isn’t enough money to bail out these localities, even if there was the net political will … this is probably going to be one of the biggest things in the years to come. And one directly relevant to us.

        Hmmm, Wisconsin should also play a part in this analysis, as an example that the Brezhnev Doctrine is not necessarily holding in the US … and that had immediately RKBA fruit.

      • Harold says:

        Forgot to mention is that part of such a grand analysis should be what’s pushing so many states pro-RKBA, something which is still continuing. I suspect demographics plays a role, and I wonder about what the younger generation will be like … more “liberal” (at least for a while, but maybe a long while if they can’t afford to form a family) but want to shoot for real the guns they use in video games?

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