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Most Important Point about 2012 Elections

From a speech by Wayne LaPierre in Arkansas:

“I believe that the Second Amendment hangs by one vote, and this 2012 election could break the back of it one way or the other,” said Wayne LaPierre, the association’s CEO and executive vice president, in a packed room at the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service.

That is pretty much true. If anything happens to Justice Scalia, who is now 75, or Justice Kennedy, who is nearly 75, the Second Amendment is in mortal danger. If Obama is elected to a second term, he will leave office in 2016, the year that both Scalia and Kennedy turn 80. The probability, based on actuarial tables, of either them dying during that time are about 1 in 5. That makes the overall odds that we lose one of the Heller Five during Obama’s second term at 2 in 5. That’s not even speaking of the odds they might want to retire. How do you feel about those odds? I don’t like them.

8 Responses to “Most Important Point about 2012 Elections”

  1. LC Scotty says:

    I make that to be a probability of .66 that we lose neither.

  2. Sean says:

    Those are nice odds if you’re gambling in a casino for amusement, but I wouldn’t bet anything that was dear to me.

  3. Harold says:

    And what are the odds that a Republican President will nominate pro-RKBA/2nd Amendment judges? Not great, based on the post-Watergate ones.

    Of course, Obama certainly wouldn’t, but this suggests we shouldn’t count on the Supremes in the medium term.

  4. harp1034 says:

    Beyer and Sotomeyer have already said that they want to reverse Heller. We might be able to get a pro 2A justice with a Republian president but will get a strong anti-gun one with Obama for sure.

  5. I hope LaPierre is also making that speech in CA, MA, NY, NJ, PA, or any one of the other states that were Blue in 2008. At least try a swing state; peaching to the choir isn’t going to help start the turnaround we need to prevent Obama’s re-election. And I completely agree that we need to prevent his re-election in 2012, for more reasons than just the 2A.

  6. Weer'd Beard says:

    Chambered Round, we just had a major mall shut down for hours because some idiot thought a guy carrying an umbrella (tucked in a backpack no less!) on a rainy day was a “Rifle”. They had SWAT, Jackboots, helicopters, and various SWAT vehicles surrounding the mall and the guy with the umbrella had no idea until he got to work in the neighboring hospital and saw his picture on the news. He called the cops and turned himself in.

    All this and it appears that most people around think the cops acted appropriately.
    http://www.weerdworld.com/2011/anti-gun-state-spawns-sheep/

    Anything LaPierre says in Mass will either be preaching to the VERY small Choir, or will fall on deaf ears.

  7. Bubblehead Les says:

    As i’ve posted elsewhere in the past, my biggest fear for the future of the Republic lies in the make up of SCOTUS. If Obama wins, and there are too many RINOs in the Senate, then the loss of ONE Conservative Judge means that Obama gets his Rubber Stamp Judiciary, just like Hugo Chavez has. Look how many times he’s flouted the Constitution already. Keep in mind, there were enough Republican Votes to Block Obama’s last Nominee, and the Stupid RINOs gave him his pick anyway. Elections have Consequences, and if this next one goes to Obama or some RINO, we are SCREWED!

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