“I believe that the Second Amendment hangs by one vote, and this 2012 election could break the back of it one way or the other,” said Wayne LaPierre, the association’s CEO and executive vice president, in a packed room at the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service.
That is pretty much true. If anything happens to Justice Scalia, who is now 75, or Justice Kennedy, who is nearly 75, the Second Amendment is in mortal danger. If Obama is elected to a second term, he will leave office in 2016, the year that both Scalia and Kennedy turn 80. The probability, based on actuarial tables, of either them dying during that time are about 1 in 5. That makes the overall odds that we lose one of the Heller Five during Obama’s second term at 2 in 5. That’s not even speaking of the odds they might want to retire. How do you feel about those odds? I don’t like them.