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It’s All About Turnout

I’ve heard more than a few people say things like “Chris Christie doesn’t stand a chance.  That state is so blue it’s bordering on ultraviolet.”  But registration advantages don’t dictate everything, especially in midterms.  This article talking about the race in Virginia offers a prime example of that:

Creigh Deeds is not doing well. But it’s not like he’s bleeding Obama supporters- in fact the 5% of McCain supporters whose votes he’s picking up is actually equal to the 5% of Obama’s that McDonnell is picking up.

The problem is all in who’s motivated and planning to turn out- McCain supporters are at a considerably higher rate than Obama’s, and that means a healthy McDonnell lead.

It’s all about who turns out to vote, and Republicans ought to be powerfully motivated to send a message to Obama this fall, and in 2010.  It’s going to be a long four years otherwise.

3 Responses to “It’s All About Turnout”

  1. Don’t know yet who NRA will endorse in the Virginia race but NRA is doing everything it can to turnout gun owners in the elections no matter who they endorse. They hosted over 100 gun owners for an Election Kickoff meeting in Richmond last week and had good turn out in Virginia Beach the week before.

    I can’t believe Deeds did himself any favors with NRA (I can say he didn’t with VSSA) by jumping on board the “gun show loophole” band wagon the last two years while McDonnell has been doing everything he can to make up for one bad vote 16 years ago (voting for Wilder’s handgun rationing). While Deeds was trying to find a middle ground to please the families affected by the Virginia Tech shootings, McDonnell was kicking Bloomberg and his gun dealer entrapment scheme out of Virginia, joining the Texas AG’s amicus brief in Heller, standing firm against background checks on private sales at gun shows, and saying he would sign a repeal of handgun rationing (Deeds voted against it 16 years ago).

    Should be an interesting three months.

  2. Wyatt Earp says:

    The last thing the Republican voter needs to do is to sit this one out. A lot of them did that in 2008, and look what a mess we’re in now. Imagine if the Dems gain seats next year. We’d be screwed.

  3. RAH says:

    I have always expect McDonnel to win in VA. Va is not blue but has blue areas and red areas. But gun rights cut across red and blue. Due to the recession gun buys are increasing and more and more people that never though to get a gun is thinking it is a good idea. The social breakdown in Katrina gave us images of what happen and makes guns a personal issue.

    Many liberals may have thought it would have been a good idea to get rid of guns entirely but have accepted that is not possible so the next best thing is for them to arm themselves.

    The gun show loophole arguement has some legs until it is refuted by the explanation it prevents a father giving a gun to his wife, or son. That brings it back to the personal level that people react to.

    As to NJ they will vote in Christie unless the Democrats get a better candidate. NJ has had GOP Governors many times so they do flip. They stay liberal mostly but the progress to the left gets slowed

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